Long-term and Short-term Forecast Models for Poaceae (Grass) Pollen in Poznan, Poland, Constructed Using Regression Analysis

Airborne concentrations of Poaceae pollen have been monitored in Poznań for more than ten years and the length of the dataset is now considered sufficient for statistical analysis. The objective of this paper is to produce long-range forecasts that predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season (such as the start, peak and end dates of the grass pollen season) as well as short-term forecasts that predict daily variations in grass pollen counts for the next day or next few days throughout the main grass pollen season. The method of forecasting was regression analysis. Correlation analysis was used to examine the relationship between grass pollen counts and the factors that affect its production, release and dispersal. The models were constructed with data from 1994-2004 and tested on data from 2005 and 2006. The forecast models predicted the start of the grass pollen season to within 2 days and achieved 61% and 70% accuracy on a scale of 1-4 when forecasting variations in daily grass pollen counts in 2005 and 2006 respectively. This study has emphasised how important the weather during the few weeks or months preceding pollination is to grass pollen production, and draws attention to the importance of considering large-scale patterns of climate variability (indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation) when constructing forecast models for allergenic pollen.

A Service Model For Delivering Care Closer to Home.

Upton Surgery (Worcestershire) has developed a flexible and responsive service model that facilitates multi-agency support for adult patients with complex care needs experiencing an acute health crisis. The purpose of this service is to provide appropriate interventions that avoid unnecessary hospital admissions or, alternatively, provide support to facilitate early discharge from secondary care. Key aspects of this service are the collaborative and proactive identification of patients at risk, rapid creation and deployment of a reactive multi-agency team and follow-up of patients with an appropriate long-term care plan. A small team of dedicated staff (the Complex Care Team) are pivotal to coordinating and delivering this service. Key skills are sophisticated leadership and project management skills, and these have been used sensitively to challenge some traditional roles and boundaries in the interests of providing effective, holistic care for the patient. This is a practical example of early implementation of the principles underlying the Department of Health’s (DH) recent Best Practice Guidance, ‘Delivering Care Closer to Home’ (DH, July 2008) and may provide useful learning points for other general practice surgeries considering implementing similar models. This integrated case management approach has had enthusiastic endorsement from patients and carers. In addition to the enhanced quality of care and experience for the patient, this approach has delivered value for money. Secondary care costs have been reduced by preventing admissions and also by reducing excess bed-days. The savings achieved have justified the ongoing commitment to the service and the staff employed in the Complex Care Team. The success of this service model has been endorsed recently by the ‘Customer Care’ award by ‘Management in Practice’. The Surgery was also awarded the ‘Practice of the Year’ award for this and a number of other customer-focussed projects.