Identifying and predicting adolescent smokers' developmental trajectories

Very few studies have defined trajectories of smoking. In the present study, we modeled growth in adolescent smoking and empirically identified prototypical trajectories. We conceptualized escalation of smoking as a growth process and modeled rates of change and heterogeneity of these patterns using latent growth mixture modeling. The analysis identified six trajectories with low ambiguity about group membership (early rapid escalators, late rapid escalators, late moderate escalators, late slow escalators-smokers, stable puffers, and late slow escalators-puffers). A trajectory of quitters was not identified. We also examined predictors of the smoking trajectories. The predictors were assessed across the adolescent years and included variables related to smoking and other substance use, as well as a range of variables related to sociodemographic factors and mental health. Observed change in the pattern of predictors across age has implications for the mechanism of effect of these variables in relation to smoking trajectories, including predictors that differentiated among daily smokers, variables that may determine the trajectory (e.g., friends smoking), and variables that may result from the trajectory (e.g., marijuana use, less attachment to friends).

Randomized control trial of a smoking cessation intervention directed at men whose partners are pregnant

Background. Although smoking cessation programs significantly reduce smoking rates in the general population, some sectors are poorly motivated by them, especially healthy men from lower socioeconomic classes. Methods. By using a significant life event (approaching birth of a child) we exploited a time of increased receptiveness to smoking cessation influences. A multicomponent intervention was conducted and evaluated using a stratified, randomised control trial, with an intention to treat analysis. Results. Five hundred and sixty-one men were enrolled and 505 (90%) followed to the end of their partners' pregnancy. At 6-month follow-up 16.5% of 291 smokers of the intervention group and 9.3% of 270 in the control group reported they had stopped smoking (P = 0.011, OR = 0.52, 95% CI 0.31 - 0.86). The strongest predictors of smoking cessation were being in a skilled occupation, having a higher number of quit attempts in the previous year and having the first cigarette of the day relatively later. Conclusions. The number of smoking men who had to be treated to achieve one stopping smoking (NNT) during their partner's pregnancy was 13 to 14. Innovative antismoking population health measures for the partners of antenatal patients are effective and perhaps should be more widely adopted. (C) 2003 American Health Foundation and Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Smoking behaviour among Indigenous secondary school students in North Queensland

This study investigated smoking behaviour among Indigenous youth. A sample of schools (n = 12) in north Queensland with large proportions of Indigenous students was selected. Details about the prevalence of smoking behaviour in both Indigenous and non-Indigenous students ( n = 883) were gathered. Data were also collected on the cultural, social, and psychological factors associated with cigarette smoking for Indigenous and non-Indigenous students. This survey indicated smoking rates for Indigenous and non-Indigenous students were 24% and 30%, respectively. The study found similarities between both groups regarding where they obtained their cigarettes ( friends) and their reasons for not smoking ( their parents and health). Results of this survey challenge the belief that Indigenous youth are significantly different in their smoking patterns and behaviours compared to non-Indigenous secondary school students in rural regions. It indicated the potential importance of school communities in promoting non-smoking behaviours among Indigenous students even in the face of strong normative pressures from elsewhere in the community. This survey can be used to monitor smoking prevalence among Indigenous secondary students in north Queensland, help guide the development of culturally appropriate school curriculum resources and contribute to the overall evaluation of smoking prevention and smoking cessation programs which are developed for Indigenous secondary school students.

Evidence for Concurrent Effects of Exposure to Environmental Cadmium and Lead on Hepatic CYP2A6 Phenotype and Renal Function Biomarkers in Non Smokers

We examined the interrelationships between phenotype of hepatic cytochrome P450 2A6 (CYP2A6), nephropathy, and exposure to cadmium and lead in a group of 118 healthy Thai men and women who had never smoked. Their urinary Cd excretion ranged from 0.05 to 2.36 mug/g creatinine, whereas their urinary Pb excretion ranged from 0.1 to 12 mug/g creatinine. Average age and Cd burden of women and men did not differ. Women, however, on average showed a 46% higher urinary Pb excretion (p < 0.001) and lower zinc status, suggested by lower average serum Zn and urinary Zn excretion compared with those in men. Cd-linked nephropathy was detected in both men and women. However, Pb-linked nephropathy was seen only in women, possibly because of higher Pb burden coupled with lower protective factors, notably of Zn (P < 0.001), in women compared with men. In men, Pb burden showed a negative association with CYP2A6 activity (adjusted beta = -0.29, p = 0.003), whereas Cd burden showed a positive association with CYP2A6 activity (adjusted beta = 0.38, p = 0.001), suggesting opposing effects of Cd and Pb on hepatic CYP2A6 phenotype. The weaker correlation between Cd burden CYP2A6 activity in women despite similarity in Cd burden between men and women is consistent with opposing effects of Pb and Cd on hepatic CYP2A6 phenotypic expression. A positive correlation between Cd-linked nephropathy (urinary N-acetyl-beta-D-glucosaminidase excretion) and CYP2A6 activity in men (r = 0.39, p = 0.002) and women (r = 0.37, p = 0.001) suggests that Cd induction of hepatic CYP2A6 expression and Cd-linked nephropathy occurred simultaneously.

Alcohol, wine, and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Moderate alcohol intake can influence sex hormone levels and affect ovarian function as well as increasing breast cancer risk. This suggests that alcohol might also influence ovarian cancer risk. We have evaluated this among 696 Australian women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer and 786 cancer-free control women, selected at random from the electoral roll. Sociodemographic information and a detailed reproductive history were collected in a face-to-face interview, and information about diet and alcohol consumption was obtained from a food frequency questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Overall, 59% of women drank

Comparison of environmental and genetic factors for Parkinson's disease between Chinese and Caucasians

This review paper compares the differences in prevalence, and environmental and genetic risk factors for Parkinson's disease between Chinese and Caucasian subjects. Comparison of age-specific prevalence between Chinese people and Caucasians suggests that the prevalence is lower in the Chinese ( at least in the past), although the prevalence rate in China appears to be rising. Distinctions in environmental risk factors and genetic factors are discussed. The difference in prevalence may be due to distinctions in environmental and genetic risk factors as well as the complex interaction between these environmental and genetic factors, although discrepancies in methodology for prevalence surveys can also be an explanation. Copyright (C) 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Migraine and risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage: a population-based case-control study

Objective. Evidence exists for an association between migraine and ischaemic stroke, but there is uncertainty about whether migraine is a risk factor for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Methods. A multi-centre, population-based, case-control study using cases of first-ever SAH during 1995-98 and matched controls in four study centres in Australia and New Zealand. Self- or proxy-reported history, frequency and characteristics of headaches, classified according to 1988 International Headache Society diagnostic criteria. Results. 206 of 432 (48%) cases and 236 of 473 (50%) controls had a history of headaches. The frequency and characteristics of headaches were similar between the two groups. No association was found in logistic regression analyses for history or frequency of headaches, or migraine headaches. Conclusions. No evidence was found for an association between recurrent headaches and SAH. Such information is important for counselling patients and families about the significance of past and ongoing headaches in relation to this illness. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Role of smoking in global and regional cancer epidemiology: current patterns and data needs

Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Risk of non-small cell lung cancer and the cytochrome P4501A1 Ile462Val polymorphism

Objective: The Ile462Val substitution in the cytochrome P450 1A1 gene (CYP1A1) results in increased enzymatic activity. Preliminary data suggesting a link between this polymorphism and lung cancer risk in Caucasians are inconsistent, reflecting small sample sizes and the relatively low frequency of the variant. Methods: The data set consisted of 1050 primary non-small cell lung cancer cases and 581 controls, a large homogenous population designed specifically to address previous inconsistencies. Patients were genotyped using a PCR-RFLP technique. Results: Carriers of the valine allele, CYP1A1*2C, (Ile/Val or Val/Val genotypes) were significantly over-represented in non-small cell lung cancer compared to controls (OR=1.9; 95% CI=1.2-2.9; p=0.005) when adjusted for confounders, particularly in women (OR=4.6; 95% CI=1.7-12.4; p=0.003). The valine variant was statistically significantly over-represented in cases of lung cancer younger than the median age (64 years) (OR=2.5; 95% CI=1.3-4.8; p=0.005) and cases with less than the median cumulative tobacco-smoke exposure (46 pack-years) (OR=2.4; 95% CI=1.3-4.7; p=0.007). Conclusions: These new data establish an association between the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and the risk of developing non-small cell lung cancer, especially among women.

Smoking and elevated blood pressure are the most important risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Asia-Pacific region - An overview of 26 cohorts involving 306,620 participants

Background and Purpose - The cause of subarachnoid hemorrhage ( SAH) is poorly understood and there are few large cohort studies of risk factors for SAH. We investigated the risk of SAH mortality and morbidity associated with common cardiovascular risk factors in the Asia-Pacific region and examined whether the strengths of these associations were different in Asian and Australasian ( predominantly white) populations. Methods - Cohort studies were identified from Internet electronic databases, searches of proceedings of meetings, and personal communication. Hazard ratios (HRs) for systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking, total serum cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol drinking were calculated from Cox models that were stratified by sex and cohort and adjusted for age at risk. Results - Individual participant data from 26 prospective cohort studies ( total number of participants 306 620) that reported incident cases of SAH ( fatal and/or nonfatal) were available for analysis. During the median follow-up period of 8.2 years, a total of 236 incident cases of SAH were observed. Current smoking (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.4) and SBP > 140 mm Hg ( HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5 to 2.7) were significant and independent risk factors for SAH. Attributable risks of SAH associated with current smoking and elevated SBP ( similar to 140 mm Hg) were 29% and 19%, respectively. There were no significant associations between the risk of SAH and cholesterol, BMI, or drinking alcohol. The strength of the associations of the common cardiovascular risk factors with the risk of SAH did not differ much between Asian and Australasian regions. Conclusions - Cigarette smoking and SBP are the most important risk factors for SAH in the Asia-Pacific region.

Adolescents' intentions to smoke as a predictor of smoking

Background. Adolescents' intentions to smoke are generally regarded as a valid and reliable predictor of subsequent smoking. This association is largely based on research with adults and needs a more detailed analysis for adolescents. Methods. Data on intentions and smoking status were collected as part of a longitudinal, birth-cohort study when the study members were 9, 11, 13, 15, 18, and 21 years of age. Results. The results showed that intention to smoke only had an important predictive power in the subgroup of previous nonsmokers. Among those already smoking (on a monthly basis or greater), previous level of smoking was a more important predictor of future behavior than intention to smoke. In addition, the effect of positive intention to smoke was nonlinear over age and had the greatest effect at age 15. Conclusion. The results indicated that in adolescence, measurement of intentions to smoke or not smoke cannot be assumed to be a general predictor of behavior at a later age for all groups of adolescents. (C) 2004 The Institute For Cancer Prevention and Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Role of smoking in global and regional cardiovascular mortality

Background - Smoking is a major cause of cardiovascular disease mortality. There is little information on how it contributes to global and regional cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases for which background risk varies because of other risks. Method and Results - We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) and the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease mortality database to estimate smoking-attributable deaths from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and a cluster of other cardiovascular diseases for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.62 (95% CI, 1.27 to 2.04) million cardiovascular deaths in the world, 11% of total global cardiovascular deaths, were due to smoking. Of these, 1.17 million deaths were among men and 450 000 among women. There were 670 000 (95% CI, 440 000 to 920 000) smoking-attributable cardiovascular deaths in the developing world and 960 000 (95% CI, 770 000 to 1 200 000) in industrialized regions. Ischemic heart disease accounted for 54% of smoking-attributable cardiovascular mortality, followed by cerebrovascular disease (25%). There was variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of various cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions - More than 1 in every 10 cardiovascular deaths in the world in the year 2000 were attributable to smoking, demonstrating that it is an important preventable cause of cardiovascular mortality.

Psychosocial and non-psychosocial risk factors for the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women

Objectives: Determine psychosocial variables associated with the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women. Examine whether variables remained significant predictors after controlling for non-psychosocial risk factors and the frequency of doctor visits. Research design and methods: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from 10 300 women who completed a survey in 1996 and 1999. The women were aged between 70 and 74 years of age in 1996. The were asked to provide self-reports on a number of psychosocial and non-psychosocial variables in 1996 and on whether they had been diagnosed for the first time with diabetes in the 3-year period. The relationships between the potential risk factors and new diagnosis of diabetes were examined using binary logistic regression analysis. Results: Univariate results showed that not having a current partner, having low social support and having a mental health index score in the clinical range were all associated with higher risks of being diagnosed with diabetes for the first time. However the multivariate results showed that only a mental health index score in the clinical range and not having a current partner provided unique prediction of being newly diagnosed with diabetes. Of the non-psychosocial variables measured, only having a high BMI and hypertension were associated with increased risks of new diagnosis, while there was also evidence of a U shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and new diagnosis. Even after adjusting for frequency of doctor visits and non-psychosocial risk factors, a mental health index in the clinical range proved to still be a significant risk factor. Conclusions: A score on the mental health index that is within the clinical range is an independent risk factor for the new diagnosis of diabetes in elderly women. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.