Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Dietary ecology of the Australian freshwater turtle (Elseya sp.: Chelonia : Chelidae) in the Burnett River, Queensland

The Burnett River snapping turtle (Elseya sp.) from the Burnett, Mary and Fitzroy river systems is an undescribed Australian freshwater turtle, of which very little ecological information is known. This paper describes the dietary ecology of the species in the Burnett River catchment. Stomach and faecal samples were collected from turtles and an index of relative importance was used to rank food items found in stomach samples. This index indicated that algae and aquatic ribbon weed (Vallisneria) were the dominant food items consumed. No difference in diet was found between males and females. Although the sample size was small, diet appeared to vary slightly seasonally, with Elseya sp. selectively feeding on the flower buds of the Chinese elm tree (Celtis chinensis) and the seeds of the blackbean tree (Castanospermum australe) when these food items were seasonally available. Faecal samples suggest that the most ingested foods ( algae and aquatic ribbon weed) were also the most digestible. Although predominantly herbivorous, Elseya sp. was seen to eat carrion once in the wild.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Parthenium weed: a potential major weed for agro-ecosystems in Pakistan

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is a new and potentially major weed in Pakistan. This weed, originating from central America, is now a major weed in many regions of the world including Eastern Africa, India, parts of South East Asia and Australia. Presumably its recent arrival in Pakistan has been due to its movement from India, but this has yet to be established. In Australia it has been present for about 50 years, in which time it has spread from isolated infestations to establish core populations in central Queensland with scattered and isolated plants occurring south into New South Wales and north-west into the Northern Territory. Its spread in Pakistan is likely to be much more rapid, but lessons learnt in Australia will be of great value for weed managers in Pakistan. This annual herb has the potential to spread to all medium rainfall rangeland, dairy and summer cropping areas in Pakistan. In Australia its main effect is upon livestock production, but it is also causing health concerns in regional communities. However, in India it has also had a significant impact in cropping systems. To help coordinate actions on its management in Australia, a National Weeds Program has created a Parthenium Weed Management Group (PWMG) and under this group a Parthenium Weed Research Group (PWRG) has been formed. Funding coming from this national program and other sources has supported the PWRG to undertake a collaborative and technology exchange research program in two main areas: 1) biology and ecology and 2) management; while the PWMG has focused on community awareness and the production of various extension and management packages. Research in the area of biology and ecology has included studies on the evaluation of competitive plants to displace parthenium weed, the use of process-based simulation models to monitor and predict future spread and abundance under present and future climate conditions, the effect of the weed on human health and the ecology of its seed bank. Management research has focussed on the development of biological control approaches using plant-feeding insects and pathogens. The effectiveness of biological control is also being monitored through long term studies on seed bank size and dynamics. The use of fire as another potential management tool is also being evaluated. In addition to this important research, an effort has also been made to spread the most important findings and management outcomes to the wider community through an extension and education program driven by the PWMG. These developments within Australia, in parthenium weed management, will be of great help to P