Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P < .0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P = .004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model χ(2) = 105, P < .0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.

Clinical pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of tacrolimus in solid organ transplantation

The aim of this review is to analyse critically the recent literature on the clinical pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of tacrolimus in solid organ transplant recipients. Dosage and target concentration recommendations for tacrolimus vary from centre to centre, and large pharmacokinetic variability makes it difficult to predict what concentration will be achieved with a particular dose or dosage change. Therapeutic ranges have not been based on statistical approaches. The majority of pharmacokinetic studies have involved intense blood sampling in small homogeneous groups in the immediate post-transplant period. Most have used nonspecific immunoassays and provide little information on pharmacokinetic variability. Demographic investigations seeking correlations between pharmacokinetic parameters and patient factors have generally looked at one covariate at a time and have involved small patient numbers. Factors reported to influence the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus include the patient group studied, hepatic dysfunction, hepatitis C status, time after transplantation, patient age, donor liver characteristics, recipient race, haematocrit and albumin concentrations, diurnal rhythm, food administration, corticosteroid dosage, diarrhoea and cytochrome P450 (CYP) isoenzyme and P-glycoprotein expression. Population analyses are adding to our understanding of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus, but such investigations are still in their infancy. A significant proportion of model variability remains unexplained. Population modelling and Bayesian forecasting may be improved if CYP isoenzymes and/or P-glycoprotein expression could be considered as covariates. Reports have been conflicting as to whether low tacrolimus trough concentrations are related to rejection. Several studies have demonstrated a correlation between high trough concentrations and toxicity, particularly nephrotoxicity. The best predictor of pharmacological effect may be drug concentrations in the transplanted organ itself. Researchers have started to question current reliance on trough measurement during therapeutic drug monitoring, with instances of toxicity and rejection occurring when trough concentrations are within 'acceptable' ranges. The correlation between blood concentration and drug exposure can be improved by use of non-trough timepoints. However, controversy exists as to whether this will provide any great benefit, given the added complexity in monitoring. Investigators are now attempting to quantify the pharmacological effects of tacrolimus on immune cells through assays that measure in vivo calcineurin inhibition and markers of immuno suppression such as cytokine concentration. To date, no studies have correlated pharmacodynamic marker assay results with immunosuppressive efficacy, as determined by allograft outcome, or investigated the relationship between calcineurin inhibition and drug adverse effects. Little is known about the magnitude of the pharmacodynamic variability of tacrolimus.

Prevalence of HBsAg mutants and impact of hepatitis B infant immunisation in four Pacific Island countries

The prevalence rate of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Pacific Island countries is amongst the highest in the world. Hepatitis B immunisation has been incorporated into national programmes at various times, often with erratic supply and coverage, until a regionally co-ordinated programme, which commenced in 1995 ensured adequate supply. The effectiveness of these programmes was recently evaluated in four countries, Vanuatu and Fiji in Melanesia, Tonga in Polynesia and Kiribati in Micronesia. That evaluation established that the programmes had a substantial beneficial impact in preventing chronic hepatitis B infection [Vaccine 18 (2000) 3059]. Several studies of hepatitis B vaccination programmes in endemic countries have identified the potential significance of surface gene mutants as a cause for failure of immunisation. In the study outlined in this paper, we screened infected children and their mothers for the emergence and prevalence of these variants in specimens collected from the four country evaluation. Although the opportunity for the emergence of HBV vaccine escape mutants in these populations was high due to the presence of a considerable amount of the virus in the population and the selection pressure from vaccine use, there were no a determinant vaccine escape mutants found. This suggests that vaccine escape variants are not an important cause for failure to prevent HBV transmission in this setting. Other HBsAg variants were detected, but their functional significance remains to be determined. The failure to provide satisfactory protection during such immunisation programmes reflects the need for achieving and sustaining high vaccine coverage, improving the timeliness of doses as well as improving 'cold-chain' support, rather than the selection of vaccine-escape mutants of HBV. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Survival strategy of Echinococcus multilocularis in the human host

As exemplified by aborted calcified liver lesions commonly found in patients from endemic areas, Echinococcus multilocularis metacestodes develop only in a minority of individuals exposed to infection with the papasite. Clinical research has disclosed some aspects of the survival strategy of E. multilocularis in human hosts. Clinical observations in liver transplantation and AIDS suggest that suppression of cellular/Th1related immunity increases disease severity. Most of the studies have stressed a role for CD8+ T cells and for Interleukin-10 in the development of tolerance. A spontaneous secretion of IL-10 by the PBMC seems to be the immunological hallmark of patients with progressive forms of alveolar echinococcosis (AE). IL-10-induced inhibition of effector macrophages, but also of antigen-presenting dendritic cells, may be operating and allowing parasite growth and survival. The genetic correlates of susceptibility to infection with E. multilocularis are clearer in humans than in the mouse model. A significant link between MHC polymorphism and clinical presentation of AE has been shown, and the spontaneous secretion of IL-10 in patients with a progressive AE is higher in patients with the HLA DR3+, DQ2+ haplotype. Clustering of cases in certain families, in communities otherwise exposed to similar risk factors, also points to immuno-genetic predisposition factors that may allow the larva to escape host immunity more easily. The first stage of larval development may be crucial in producing danger signals stimulating the initial production of cytokines. Therapeutic use of Interferon alpha is an attempt to foil the survival strategy of E. multilocularis. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hemochromatosis and alcoholic liver disease

The close association of excessive alcohol consumption and clinical expression of hemochromatosis has been of widespread interest for many years. In most populations of northern European extraction, more than 90% of patients with overt hemochromatosis are homozygous for the C282Y mutation in the HFE gene. Nevertheless, the strong association of heavy alcohol intake with the clinical expression of hemochromatosis remains. We (individually or in association with colleagues from our laboratories) have performed three relevant studies in which this association was explored. In the first, performed in 1975 before the cloning of the HFE gene, the frequency of clinical symptoms and signs was compared in patients with classical hemochromatosis who consumed 100 g or more of alcohol per day versus in nondrinkers or moderate drinkers who consumed less than 100 g of alcohol per day. The results showed no difference between the two groups except for features of complications of alcoholism in the first group, especially jaundice, peripheral neuritis, and hepatic failure. Twenty-five percent of those with heavy alcohol consumption showed histologic features of alcoholic liver disease (including cirrhosis) together with heavy iron overload. It was concluded that these patients had the genetic disease complicated by alcoholic liver disease. In the second study (2002), 206 subjects with classical HFE-associated hemochromatosis in whom liver biopsy had been performed were evaluated to quantify the contribution of excess alcohol consumption to the development of cirrhosis in hemochromatosis. Cirrhosis was approximately nine times more likely to develop in subjects with hemochromatosis who consumed more than 60 g of alcohol per day than in those who drank less than this amount. In the third study (2002), 371 C282Y-homozygous relatives of patients with HFE-associated hemochromatosis were assessed. Eleven subjects had cirrhosis on liver biopsy and four of these drank 60 g or more of alcohol per day. The reason why heavy alcohol consumption accentuates the clinical expression of hemochromatosis is unclear. Increased dietary iron or increased iron absorption is unlikely. The most likely explanation would seem to be the added co-factor effect of iron and alcohol, both of which cause oxidative stress, hepatic stellate cell activation, and hepatic fibrogenesis. In addition, the cumulative effects of other forms of liver injury may result when iron and alcohol are present concurrently. Clearly, the addition of dietary iron in subjects homozygous for hemochromatosis would be unwise. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Donor pretreatment with progenipoietin-1 is superior to granulocyte colony-stimulating factor in preventing graft-versus-host disease after allogeneic stem cell transplantation

The granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) and Fit-3 receptor agonist progenipoietin-1 (ProGP-1) has potent effects on dendritic cell (DC) expansion and may be an alternative to G-CSF for the mobilization of stem cells for allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT). We studied the ability of stem cell grafts mobilized with this agent to induce graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) to minor and major histocompatibility antigens in the well-described B6 --> B6D2F1 SCT model. ProGP-1, G-CSIF, or control diluent was administered to donor B6 mice. ProGP-1 expanded all cell lineages in the spleen, and unseparated splenocytes from these animals produced large amounts of interleukin 10 (IL-10) and transforming growth factor beta (TGFbeta) whereas the expression of T-cell adhesion molecules was diminished. Transplantation survival was 0%, 50%, and 90% in recipients of control-, G-CSF-, and ProGP-1-treated allogeneic donor splenocytes, respectively (P < .0001). Donor pretreatment with ProGP-1 allowed a 4-fold escalation in T-cell dose over that possible with G-CSF. Donor CD4 T cells from allogeneic SCT recipients of ProGP-1 splenocytes demonstrated an anergic response to host antigen, and cytokine production (interferon gamma [IFNγ], IL-4, and IL-10) was also reduced while CD8 T-cell cytotoxicity to host antigens remained intact. Neither CD11c(hi) DCs nor CD11c(dim)/B220(hi) DCs from ProGP-1-treated animals conferred protection from GVHD when added to control spleen. Conversely, when equal numbers of purified T cells from control-, G-CSF-, or ProGP-1-treated allogeneic donors were added to allogeneic T-cell-depleted control spleen, survival at day 60 was 0%, 15%, and 90%, respectively (P < .0001). The improved survival in recipients of ProGP-1 T cells was associated with reductions in systemic tumor necrosis factor alpha generation and GVHD of the gastrointestinal tract. We conclude that donor pretreatment with ProGP-1 is superior to G-CSIF for the prevention of GVHD after allogeneic SCT, primarily due to incremental affects on T-cell phenotype and function

Sampling times for monitoring tacrolimus in stable adult liver transplant recipients

The aim of this study was to determine the most informative sampling time(s) providing a precise prediction of tacrolimus area under the concentration-time curve (AUC). Fifty-four concentration-time profiles of tacrolimus from 31 adult liver transplant recipients were analyzed. Each profile contained 5 tacrolimus whole-blood concentrations (predose and 1, 2, 4, and 6 or 8 hours postdose), measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The concentration at 6 hours was interpolated for each profile, and 54 values of AUC(0-6) were calculated using the trapezoidal rule. The best sampling times were then determined using limited sampling strategies and sensitivity analysis. Linear mixed-effects modeling was performed to estimate regression coefficients of equations incorporating each concentration-time point (C0, C1, C2, C4, interpolated C5, and interpolated C6) as a predictor of AUC(0-6). Predictive performance was evaluated by assessment of the mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE). Limited sampling strategy (LSS) equations with C2, C4, and C5 provided similar results for prediction of AUC(0-6) (R-2 = 0.869, 0.844, and 0.832, respectively). These 3 time points were superior to C0 in the prediction of AUC. The ME was similar for all time points; the RMSE was smallest for C2, C4, and C5. The highest sensitivity index was determined to be 4.9 hours postdose at steady state, suggesting that this time point provides the most information about the AUC(0-12). The results from limited sampling strategies and sensitivity analysis supported the use of a single blood sample at 5 hours postdose as a predictor of both AUC(0-6) and AUC(0-12). A jackknife procedure was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model, and this demonstrated that collecting a sample at 5 hours after dosing could be considered as the optimal sampling time for predicting AUC(0-6).

Relationships of tacrolimus pharmacokinetic measures and adverse outcomes in stable adult liver transplant recipients

Alternative measures to trough concentrations [non-trough concentrations and limited area under the concentration-time curve (AUC)] have been shown to better predict tacrolimus AUC. The aim of this study was to determine if these are also better predictors of adverse outcomes in long term liver transplant recipients. The associations between tacrolimus trough concentrations (C-0), non-trough concentrations (C-1, C-2, C-4, C-6/8), and AUC(0-12) and the occurrence of hypertension, hyperkalaemia, hyperglycaemia and nephrotoxicity were assessed in 34 clinically stable liver transplant patients. The most common adverse outcome was hypertension, prevalence of 36%. Hyperkalaemia and hyperglycaemia had a prevalence of 21% and 13%, respectively. A sequential population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic approach was implemented. No significant association between predicted C-0, C-1, C-2, C-4, C-6/8 or AUC(0-12) and adverse effects could be found. Tacrolimus concentrations and AUC measures were in the same range in patients with and without adverse effects. Measures reported to provide benefit, preventing graft rejection and minimizing acute adverse effects in the early post-transplant period, were not able to predict adverse effects in stable adult liver recipients whose trough concentrations were maintained in the notional target range.