Modelling Patient Duration of Stay to Facilitate Resource Management of Geriatric Hospitals

A fundamental aspect of health care management is the effective allocation of resources. This is of particular importance in geriatric hospitals where elderly patients tend to have more complex needs. Hospital managers would benefit immensely if they had advance knowledge of patient duration of stay in hospital. Managers could assess the costs of patient care and make allowances for these in their budget. In this paper, we tackle this important problem via a model which predicts the duration of stay distribution of patients in hospital. The approach uses phase-type distributions conditioned on a Bayesian belief network.

Medical Students' views of a career in Geriatric Medicine; Multi-Centre Qualitative Analysis

Medical students frequently have negative preconceptions of a career in Geriatric Medicine. In ta qualitative analysis of the free text from 789 response from Medical students in Scotland and Northern Ireland, we show that clinical attachment seffectively challenge negative student views and more positive statements about future careers in Geriatric Medicine emerged at the end of the attachment.

Assessing length of stay and associated characteristics of geriatric patients in Northern Ireland

The effective provision of care for the elderly is becoming increasingly more difficult. This is due to the rising proportion of elderly in the population, increasing demands placed on the health services and the financial strain placed on an already stretched economy. The research presented in this paper uses three different models to represent the length of stay distribution of geriatric patients admitted to one of the six key acute hospitals in Northern Ireland and various patient characteristics associated with their respective length of stay. The accurate modelling of bed usage within wards would enable hospital managers to prepare patient discharge packages and rehabilitation services in advance. The models presented within the paper include a Cox proportional hazards model, a Bayesian network with a discrete variable to represent length of stay and a special conditional phase-type model (C-Ph) with a connecting outcome node. This research demonstrates the new efficient fitting algorithm employed for Coxian phase-type distributions while updating C-Ph models for recent elderly patient data.

The geriatric minimum data set for clinical trials (GMDS)

To overcome the weak evidence base coming from often poor and insufficient clinical research in older people, a minimum data set to achieve harmonisation is highly advisable. This will lead to uniform nomenclature and to the standardisation of the assessment tools. Our primary objective was to develop a Geriatric Minimum Data Set (GMDS) for clinical research.