14 resultados para Rainfall, Mosquito Density, Polynomial Distributed Lag Model, Ross River Virus

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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A non-linear lumped model of the reed-mouthpiece-lip system of a clarinet is formulated, in which the lumped parameters are derived from numerical experiments with a finite-difference simulation based on a distributed reed model. The effective stiffness per unit area is formulated as a function of the pressure signal driving the reed, in order to simulate the effects of the reed bending against the lay, and mass and damping terms are added as a first approximation to the dynamic behaviour of the reed. A discrete-time formulation is presented, and its response is compared to that of the distributed model. In addition, the lumped model is applied in the simulation of clarinet tones, enabling the analysis of the effects of using a pressure-dependent stiffness per unit area on sustained oscillations. The analysed effects and features are in qualitative agreement with players' experiences and experimental results obtained in prior studies.

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We show that the X-ray line flux of the Mn Kα line at 5.9 keV from the decay of 55Fe is a promising diagnostic to distinguish between Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) explosion models. Using radiation transport calculations, we compute the line flux for two three-dimensional explosion models: a near-Chandrasekhar mass delayed detonation and a violent merger of two (1.1 and 0.9 M⊙) white dwarfs. Both models are based on solar metallicity zero-age main-sequence progenitors. Due to explosive nuclear burning at higher density, the delayed-detonation model synthesizes ˜3.5 times more radioactive 55Fe than the merger model. As a result, we find that the peak Mn Kα line flux of the delayed-detonation model exceeds that of the merger model by a factor of ˜4.5. Since in both models the 5.9-keV X-ray flux peaks five to six years after the explosion, a single measurement of the X-ray line emission at this time can place a constraint on the explosion physics that is complementary to those derived from earlier phase optical spectra or light curves. We perform detector simulations of current and future X-ray telescopes to investigate the possibilities of detecting the X-ray line at 5.9 keV. Of the currently existing telescopes, XMM-Newton/pn is the best instrument for close (≲1-2 Mpc), non-background limited SNe Ia because of its large effective area. Due to its low instrumental background, Chandra/ACIS is currently the best choice for SNe Ia at distances above ˜2 Mpc. For the delayed-detonation scenario, a line detection is feasible with Chandra up to ˜3 Mpc for an exposure time of 106 s. We find that it should be possible with currently existing X-ray instruments (with exposure times ≲5 × 105 s) to detect both of our models at sufficiently high S/N to distinguish between them for hypothetical events within the Local Group. The prospects for detection will be better with future missions. For example, the proposed Athena/X-IFU instrument could detect our delayed-detonation model out to a distance of ˜5 Mpc. This would make it possible to study future events occurring during its operational life at distances comparable to those of the recent supernovae SN 2011fe (˜6.4 Mpc) and SN 2014J (˜3.5 Mpc).

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Sendai virus (SeV) is a murine respiratory virus of considerable interest as a gene therapy or vaccine vector, as it is considered nonpathogenic in humans. However, little is known about its interaction with the human respiratory tract. To address this, we developed a model of respiratory virus infection based on well-differentiated primary pediatric bronchial epithelial cells (WD-PBECs). These physiologically authentic cultures are comprised of polarized pseudostratified multilayered epithelium containing ciliated, goblet, and basal cells and intact tight junctions. To facilitate our studies, we rescued a replication-competent recombinant SeV expressing enhanced green fluorescent protein (rSeV/eGFP). rSeV/eGFP infected WD-PBECs efficiently and progressively and was restricted to ciliated and nonciliated cells, not goblet cells, on the apical surface. Considerable cytopathology was evident in the rSeV/eGFP-infected cultures postinfection. This manifested itself by ciliostasis, cell sloughing, apoptosis, and extensive degeneration of WD-PBEC cultures. Syncytia were also evident, along with significant basolateral secretion of proinflammatory chemokines, including IP-10, RANTES, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), interleukin 6 (IL-6), and IL-8. Such deleterious responses are difficult to reconcile with a lack of pathogenesis in humans and suggest that caution may be required in exploiting replication-competent SeV as a vaccine vector. Alternatively, such robust responses might constitute appropriate normal host responses to viral infection and be a prerequisite for the induction of efficient immune responses.

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Passive intermodulation (PIM) often limits the performance of communication systems, particularly in the presence of multiple carriers. Since the origins of the apparently multiple physical sources of nonlinearity causing PIM in distributed circuits are not fully understood, the behavioural models are frequently employed to describe the process of PIM generation. In this paper, a memoryless nonlinear polynomial model, capable of predicting high-order multi-carrier intermodulation products, is deduced from the third-order two-tone PIM measurements on a microstrip transmission line with distributed nonlinearity. The analytical model of passive distributed nonlinearity is implemented in Keysight Technology’s ADS simulator to evaluate the adjacent band power ratio for three-tone signals. The obtained results suggest that the costly multi-carrier test setups can possibly be replaced by a simulation tool based on the properly retrieved nonlinear polynomial model.

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Osteoporosis (OP) is one of the most prevalent bone diseases worldwide with bone fracture the major clinical consequence. The effect of OP on fracture repair is disputed and although it might be expected for fracture repair to be delayed in osteoporotic individuals, a definitive answer to this question still eludes us. The aim of this study was to clarify the effect of osteoporosis in a rodent fracture model. OP was induced in 3-month-old rats (n = 53) by ovariectomy (OVX) followed by an externally fixated, mid-diaphyseal femoral osteotomy at 6 months (OVX group). A further 40 animals underwent a fracture at 6 months (control group). Animals were sacrificed at 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks postfracture with outcome measures of histology, biomechanical strength testing, pQCT, relative BMD, and motion detection. OVX animals had significantly lower BMD, slower fracture repair (histologically), reduced stiffness in the fractured femora (8 weeks) and strength in the contralateral femora (6 and 8 weeks), increased body weight, and decreased motion. This study has demonstrated that OVX is associated with decrease in BMD (particularly in trabecular bone) and a reduction in the mechanical properties of intact bone and healing fractures. The histological, biomechanical, and radiological measures of union suggest that OVX delayed fracture healing. (C) 2007 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals.

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This paper proposes a novel image denoising technique based on the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) density model using an extended non-negative sparse coding (NNSC) algorithm proposed by us. This algorithm can converge to feature basis vectors, which behave in the locality and orientation in spatial and frequency domain. Here, we demonstrate that the NIG density provides a very good fitness to the non-negative sparse data. In the denoising process, by exploiting a NIG-based maximum a posteriori estimator (MAP) of an image corrupted by additive Gaussian noise, the noise can be reduced successfully. This shrinkage technique, also referred to as the NNSC shrinkage technique, is self-adaptive to the statistical properties of image data. This denoising method is evaluated by values of the normalized signal to noise rate (SNR). Experimental results show that the NNSC shrinkage approach is indeed efficient and effective in denoising. Otherwise, we also compare the effectiveness of the NNSC shrinkage method with methods of standard sparse coding shrinkage, wavelet-based shrinkage and the Wiener filter. The simulation results show that our method outperforms the three kinds of denoising approaches mentioned above.

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A new chemical model is presented for the carbon-rich circumstellar envelope (CSE) of the asymptotic giant branch star IRC+10216. The model includes shells of matter with densities that are enhanced relative to the surrounding circumstellar medium. The chemical model uses an updated reaction network including reactions from the RATE06 database and a more detailed anion chemistry. In particular, new mechanisms are considered for the formation of CN-, C3N-, and C2H-, and for the reactions of hydrocarbon anions with atomic nitrogen and with the most abundant cations in the CSE. New reactions involving H- are included which result in the production of significant amounts of C2H- and CN- in the inner envelope. The calculated radial molecular abundance profiles for the hydrocarbons C2H, C4H, and C6H and the cyanopolyynes HC3N and HC5N show narrow peaks which are in better agreement with observations than previous models. Thus, the narrow rings observed in molecular microwave emission surrounding IRC+10216 are interpreted as arising in regions of the envelope where the gas and dust densities are greater than the surrounding circumstellar medium. Our models show that CN- and C2H- may be detectable in IRC+10216 despite the very low theorized radiative electron attachment rates of their parent neutral species. We also show that magnesium isocyanide (MgNC) can be formed in the outer envelope through radiative association involving Mg+ and the cyanopolyyne species.

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The motion of a clarinet reed that is clamped to a mouthpiece and supported by a lip is simulated in the time-domain using finite difference methods. The reed is modelled as a bar with non-uniform cross section, and is described using a one-dimensional, fourth-order partial differential equation. The interactions with the mouthpiece Jay and the player's lip are taken into account by incorporating conditional contact forces in the bar equation. The model is completed by clamped-free boundary conditions for the reed. An implicit finite difference method is used for discretising the system, and values for the physical parameters are chosen both from laboratory measurements and by accurate tuning of the numerical simulations. The accuracy of the numerical system is assessed through analysis of frequency warping effects and of resonance estimation. Finally, the mechanical properties of the system are studied by analysing its response to external driving forces. In particular, the effects of reed curling are investigated.

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We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the “negative tail” of the joint distribution.

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In coral islands, groundwater is a crucial freshwater resource for terrestrial life, including human water supply. Response of the freshwater lens to expected climate changes and subsequent vegetation alterations is quantified for Grande Glorieuse, a low-lying coral island in the Western Indian Ocean. Distributed models of recharge, evapotranspiration and saltwater phytotoxicity are integrated into a variable-density groundwater model to simulate the evolution of groundwater salinity. Model results are assessed against field observations including groundwater and geophysical measurements. Simulations show the major control currently exerted by the vegetation with regards to the lens morphology and the high sensitivity of the lens to climate alterations, impacting both quantity and salinity. Long-term changes in mean sea level and climatic conditions (rainfall and evapotranspiration) are predicted to be responsible for an average increase in salinity approaching 140 % (+8 kg m-3) when combined. In low-lying areas with high vegetation density, these changes top +300 % (+10 kg m-3). However, due to salinity increase and its phytotoxicity, it is shown that a corollary drop in vegetation activity can buffer the alteration of fresh groundwater. This illustrates the importance of accounting for vegetation dynamics to study groundwater in coral islands.

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In this paper, our previous work on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based fault detection method is extended to the dynamic monitoring and detection of loss-of-main in power systems using wide-area synchrophasor measurements. In the previous work, a static PCA model was built and verified to be capable of detecting and extracting system faulty events; however the false alarm rate is high. To address this problem, this paper uses a well-known ‘time lag shift’ method to include dynamic behavior of the PCA model based on the synchronized measurements from Phasor Measurement Units (PMU), which is named as the Dynamic Principal Component Analysis (DPCA). Compared with the static PCA approach as well as the traditional passive mechanisms of loss-of-main detection, the proposed DPCA procedure describes how the synchrophasors are linearly
auto- and cross-correlated, based on conducting the singular value decomposition on the augmented time lagged synchrophasor matrix. Similar to the static PCA method, two statistics, namely T2 and Q with confidence limits are calculated to form intuitive charts for engineers or operators to monitor the loss-of-main situation in real time. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is evaluated on the loss-of-main monitoring of a real system, where the historic data are recorded from PMUs installed in several locations in the UK/Ireland power system.

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Passive intermodulation (PIM) often limits the performance of communication systems with analog and digitally-modulated signals and especially of systems supporting multiple carriers. Since the origins of the apparently multiple physical sources of nonlinearity causing PIM are not fully understood, the behavioral models are frequently used to describe the process of PIM generation. In this paper a polynomial model of memoryless nonlinearity is deduced from PIM measurements of a microstrip line with distributed nonlinearity with two-tone CW signals. The analytical model of nonlinearity is incorporated in Keysight Technology’s ADS simulator to evaluate the metrics of signal fidelity in the receive band for analog and digitally-modulated signals. PIM-induced distortion and cross-band interference with modulated signals are compared to those with two-tone CW signals. It is shown that conventional metrics can be applied to quantify the effect of distributed nonlinearities on signal fidelity. It is found that the two-tone CW test provides a worst-case estimate of cross-band interference for two-carrier modulated signals whereas with a three-carrier signal PIM interference in the receive band is noticeably overestimated. The simulated constellation diagrams for QPSK signals demonstrate that PIM interference exhibits the distinctive signatures of correlated distortion and this indicates that there are opportunities for mitigating PIM interference and that PIM interference cannot be treated as noise. One of the interesting results is that PIM distortion on a transmission line results in asymmetrical regrowth of output PIM interference for modulated signals.