Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method. Regression modelling was used to identify area characteristics (rurality, deprivation, social class composition, ethnicity, unemployment, retirement migration) that could explain inequalities in LE and DFLE.

Results: Similar to values at birth, LE and DFLE at age 85 both increased between 1991 and 2001 (though DFLE increased less than LE) and gaps across local areas widened (and more for DFLE than LE). The significantly greater increases in LE and DFLE at birth for less-deprived compared with more-deprived areas were still partly present at age 85. Considering all factors, inequalities in DFLE at birth were largely driven by social class composition and unemployment rate, but these associations appear to be less influential at age 85.

Conclusions: Inequalities between areas in LE and DFLE at birth and age 85 have increased over time though factors explaining inequalities at birth (mainly social class and unemployment rates) appear less important for inequalities at age 85.

Effect of major lifestyle risk factors, independent and jointly, on life expectancy with and without cardiovascular disease: results from the Consortium on Health and Ageing Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of "disease-free" years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is "never too late".

Life expectancy for community-based patients with heart failure from time of diagnosis

AIMS: Heart failure has been demonstrated in previous studies to have a dismal prognosis. However, the modern-day prognosis of patients with new onset heart failure diagnosed in the community managed within a disease management programme is not known. The purpose of this study is to report on prognosis of patients presenting with new onset heart failure in the community who are subsequently followed in a disease management program.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A review of patients referred to a rapid access heart failure diagnostic clinic between 2002 and 2012 was undertaken. Details of diagnosis, demographics, medical history, medications, investigations and mortality data were analysed. A total of 733 patients were seen in Rapid Access Clinic for potential new diagnosis of incident of heart failure. 38.9% (n=285) were diagnosed with heart failure, 40.7% (n=116) with HF-REF and 59.3% (n=169) with HF-PEF. There were 84 (29.5%) deaths in the group of patients diagnosed with heart failure; 41 deaths (35.3%) occurred in patients with HF-REF and 43 deaths (25.4%) occurred in patients with HF-PEF. In patients with heart failure, 52.4% (n=44) died from cardiovascular causes. 63.8% of HF patients were alive after 5 years resulting on average in a month per year loss of life expectancy over that period compared with aged matched simulated population.

CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based cohort, the prognosis of heart failure was better than reported in previous studies. This is likely due to the impact of prompt diagnosis, the improvement in therapies and care within a disease management structure.

STOPPFrail (Screening Tool of Older Persons Prescriptions in Frail Adults with Limited Life Expectancy): Consensus Validation

Background: To validate STOPPFrail, a list of explicit criteria for potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) in frailer older adults with limited life expectancy. A Delphi consensus survey of an expert panel (n = 17) comprising specialists in geriatric medicine, clinical pharmacology, palliative care, psychiatry of old age, clinical pharmacy and general practice.
Methods: STOPPFrail criteria was initially created by the authors based on clinical
experience and appraisal of the available literature. Criteria were organised according to physiological system. Each criterion was accompanied by an explanation. Panellists ranked their agreement with each criterion on a 5-point Likert scale and invited to provide written feedback. Criteria with a median Likert response of 4/5 (agree/strongly agree) and a 25th centile of ≥4 were included in the final criteria.
Results: Three Delphi rounds were required. All panellists completed all rounds. Thirty criteria were proposed for inclusion; 26 were accepted. No new criteria were added. The first two criteria suggest deprescribing medications with no indication or where compliance is poor. The remaining 24 criteria include lipid-lowering therapies, alpha-blockers for hypertension, anti-platelets, neuroleptics, proton pump inhibitors, H-2 receptor antagonists, anti-spasmodics, theophylline, leukotriene antagonists, calcium supplements, bone anti-resorptive therapy, selective oestrogen receptor modulators, non-steroidal antiinflammatories, corticosteroids, 5-alpha reductase inhibitors, alpha-1 selective blockers, muscarinic antagonists, oral diabetic agents, ACE-inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, systemic oestrogens, multivitamins, nutritional supplements and prophylactic antibiotics. Anticoagulants and anti-depressants were excluded. Despite incorporation of panellists’ suggestions, memantine and acetyl-cholinesterase inhibitors remained inconclusive.
Conclusion: STOPPFrail comprises 26 criteria, which have been judged by broad consensus, to be potentially inappropriate in frailer older patients with limited life expectancy. STOPPFrail may assist in deprescribing medications in these patients.

Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

Abstract In theory, improvements in healthy life expectancy should generate increases in the average age of retirement, with little effect on savings rates. In many countries, however, retirement incentives in social security programs prevent retirement ages from keeping pace with changes in life expectancy, leading to an increased need for life-cycle savings. Analyzing a cross-country panel of macroeconomic data, we find that increased longevity raises aggregate savings rates in countries with universal pension coverage and retirement incentives, though the effect disappears in countries with pay-as-you-go systems and high replacement rates.

Validity of the Perceived Health Competence Scale in a UK primary care setting.

The Perceived Health Competence Scale (PHCS) is a measure of self-efficacy regarding general healthrelated behaviour. This brief paper examines the psychometric properties of the PHCS in a UK context. Questionnaires containing the PHCS, the SF-36 and questions about perceived health needs were posted to 486 patients randomly selected from a GP practice list. Complete questionnaires were returned by 320 patients. Analyses of these responses provide strong evidence for the validity of the PHCS in this setting. Consequently, we conclude that the PHCS is a useful addition to measures of global self-efficacy and measures of self-efficacy regarding specific behaviours in the toolkit of health psychologists. This range of self-efficacy assessment tools will ensure that psychologists can match the level of specificity of the measure of expectancy beliefs to the level of specificity of the outcome of interest.

Recessive congenital methaemoglobinaemia: cytochrome b(5) reductase deficiency

Some 60 years ago, Quentin Gibson reported the first hereditary disorder involving an enzyme when he deduced that familial methaemoglobinaemia was caused by an enzymatic lesion associated with the glycolysis pathway in red blood cells. This disorder, now known as recessive congenital methaemoglobinaemia (RCM), is caused by NADH-cytochrome b5 reductase (cb(5)r) deficiency. Two distinct clinical forms, types I and II, have been recognized, both characterized by cyanosis from birth. In type II, the cyanosis is accompanied by neurological impairment and reduced life expectancy. Cytochrome b(5) reductase is composed of one FAD and one NADH binding domain linked by a hinge region. It is encoded by the CYB5R3 (previously known as DIA1) gene and more than 40 mutations have been described, some of which are common to both types of RCM. Mutations associated with type II tend to cause incorrect splicing, disruption of the active site or truncation of the protein. At present the description of the sequence variants of cb(5)r in the literature is confusing, due to the use of two conventions which differ by one codon position. Herein we propose a new system for nomenclature of cb(5)r based on recommendations of the Human Genome Variation Society. The development of a heterologous expression system has allowed the impact of naturally occurring variants of cb(5)r to be assessed and has provided insight into the function of cb(5)r.

Association between breastfeeding and anthropometry and cardiovascular disease risk factor status in adolescence and young adulthood: the Young Hearts Project, Northern Ireland.

Objective: To examine the association between breastfeeding and blood pressure, anthropometry, and plasma lipid profile in both adolescence and young adulthood. Design: Longitudinal study of biological and behavioural risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Setting: The Young Hearts Project, Northern Ireland Subjects: School children aged 12 years and 15 years who participated in a cross-sectional study of lifestyle and health, and who were followed up as young adults aged 20 – 25 years. Results: There was no significant difference in height, weight, BMI, skin-fold thickness measurements, blood pressure or plasma lipid profile in adolescents who had been breastfed when compared to those who had not been breastfed. However, by the time these adolescents had reached adulthood, those who had been breastfed were significantly taller when compared to those who had not been breastfed (standing height, P=0.013; leg length (P=0.035)). Specifically, the breastfed group were on average taller by 1.7cm (95% CI 0.4, 3.0) and had longer legs by 1cm (95% CI 0.1, 1.9). There was no significant difference in other anthropometric measures, blood pressure or plasma lipid profile in adults who had been breastfed when compared to those who had not been breastfed. Conclusions: Compared with those who had not been breastfed, individuals who had been breastfed were taller in adulthood. Given the known association of increased adult height with improved life expectancy the results from this study support a beneficial effect of breastfeeding.

Nature as historical protagonist: environment and society in pre-industrial England

This article compares chronologies reconstructed from historical records of prices, wages, grain harvests, and population with corresponding chronologies of growing conditions and climatic variations derived from dendrochronology and Greenland ice-cores. It demonstrates that in pre-industrial, and especially late medieval, England, short-term environmental shocks and more enduring shifts in environmental conditions (sometimes acting in concert with biological agencies) exercised a powerful influence upon the balance struck between population and available resources via their effects upon the reproduction, health and life expectancy of humans, crops, and livestock. Prevailing socio-economic conditions and institutions, in turn, shaped society's susceptibility to these environmental shocks and shifts.

Gender and Welfare States in East Asia: Confucianism or Equality?

Is a Confucian cultural climate hostile to gender equality in families and public decision-making? What is the impact of gender equality legislation in East Asia? Approaches to these welfare regimes have ignored gender, while gendered accounts of welfare have neglected East Asia. Comparisons with Western welfare states show strong economies with life expectancy in Japan and South Korea above those of Western social democracies but in contrast there are extremely large gender gaps in employment, earning, unpaid work and parliamentary representation and conjoined with this low fertility rates and and minimal public social spending on childcare and early education.

In this volume, contributors address questions about gender equality in a Confucian context across a wide and varied social policy landscape, from Korea and Taiwan, where Confucian culture is deeply embedded, through China, with its transformations from Confucianism to communism and back, to the mixed cultural environments of Hong Kong and Japan. Overall, the collections asks: Has East Asia's rapid economic transformation been accompanied by social and cultural transformation?

Nursing babies at risk of cerebral palsy in the neonatal period

Cerebral palsy (CP) is a leading cause of physical disability in childhood with evidence that 90% of children with the condition sustain damage or malformation to their developing brain during the antenatal period. With half of all cases of children with CP being born prematurely many need extra help and support in the neonatal period. The aims of neonatal nursing for this high risk group include prevention of further neurological complications as well as working maintain stable infant physiology and provide information and support to parents. While a diagnosis of CP is seldom welcome there is now evidence that most children with CP are mildly affected, most have a normal life expectancy, most are well adjusted and most are happy, reporting a quality of life similar to children without CP. Neonatal nurses are ideally placed to communicate and prepare parents of children at high risk of developing CP about more positive future likely outcomes than previously thought.

Spatial Allocation of Material Flow Analysis: A Geographic Information System Application of Material Flow Analysis in Ireland

This study concerns the spatial allocation of material flows, with emphasis on construction material in the Irish housing sector. It addresses some of the key issues concerning anthropogenic impact on the environment through spatial temporal visualisation of the flow of materials, wastes and emissions at different spatial levels. This is presented in the form of a spatial model, Spatial Allocation of Material Flow Analysis (SAMFA), which enables the simulation of construction material flows and associated energy use. SAMFA parallels the Island Limits project (EPA funded under 2004-SD-MS-22-M2), which aimed to create a material flow analysis of the Irish economy classified by industrial sector. SAMFA further develops this by attempting to establish the material flows at the subnational geographical scale that could be used in the development of local authority (LA) sustainability strategies and spatial planning frameworks by highlighting the cumulative environmental impacts of the development of the built environment. By drawing on the idea of planning support systems, SAMFA also aims to provide a cross-disciplinary, integrative medium for involving stakeholders in strategies for a sustainable built environment and, as such, would help illustrate the sustainability consequences of alternative The pilot run of the model in Kildare has shown that the model can be successfully calibrated and applied to develop alternative material flows and energy-use scenarios at the ED level. This has been demonstrated through the development of an integrated and a business-as-usual scenario, with the former integrating a range of potential material efficiency and energysaving policy options and the latter replicating conditions that best describe the current trend. Their comparison shows that the former is better than the latter in terms of both material and energy use. This report also identifies a number of potential areas of future research and areas of broader application. This includes improving the accuracy of the SAMFA model (e.g. by establishing actual life expectancy of buildings in the Irish context through field surveys) and the extension of the model to other Irish counties. This would establish SAMFA as a valuable predicting and monitoring tool that is capable of integrating national and local spatial planning objectives with actual environmental impacts. Furthermore, should the model prove successful at this level, it then has the potential to transfer the modelling approach to other areas of the built environment, such as commercial development and other key contributors of greenhouse emissions. The ultimate aim is to develop a meta-model for predicting the consequences of consumption patterns at the local scale. This therefore offers the possibility of creating critical links between socio technical systems with the most important challenge of all the limitations of the biophysical environment.

Explaining young mortality

Stochastic modeling of mortality rates focuses on fitting linear models to logarithmically adjusted mortality data from the middle or late ages. Whilst this modeling enables insurers to project mortality rates and hence price mortality products it does not provide good fit for younger aged mortality. Mortality rates below the early 20's are important to model as they give an insight into estimates of the cohort effect for more recent years of birth. It is also important given the cumulative nature of life expectancy to be able to forecast mortality improvements at all ages. When we attempt to fit existing models to a wider age range, 5-89, rather than 20-89 or 50-89, their weaknesses are revealed as the results are not satisfactory. The linear innovations in existing models are not flexible enough to capture the non-linear profile of mortality rates that we see at the lower ages. In this paper we modify an existing 4 factor model of mortality to enable better fitting to a wider age range, and using data from seven developed countries our empirical results show that the proposed model has a better fit to the actual data, is robust, and has good forecasting ability.

Withholding, discontinuing and withdrawing medications in dementia patients at the end of life:a neglected problem in the disadvantaged dying?

Recent years have seen a growing recognition that dementia is a terminal illness and that patients with advanced dementia nearing the end of life do not currently receive adequate palliative care. However, research into palliative care for these patients has thus far been limited. Furthermore, there has been little discussion in the literature regarding medication use in patients with advanced dementia who are nearing the end of life, and discontinuation of medication has not been well studied despite its potential to reduce the burden on the patient and to improve quality of life. There is limited, and sometimes contradictory, evidence available in the literature to guide evidence-based discontinuation of drugs such as acetylcholinesterase inhibitors, antipsychotic agents, HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins), antibacterials, antihypertensives, antihyperglycaemic drugs and anticoagulants. Furthermore, end-of-life care of patients with advanced dementia may be complicated by difficulties in accurately estimating life expectancy, ethical considerations regarding withholding or withdrawing treatment, and the wishes of the patient and/or their family. Significant research must be undertaken in the area of medication discontinuation in patients with advanced dementia nearing the end of life to determine how physicians currently decide whether medications should be discontinued, and also to develop the evidence base and provide guidance on systematic medication discontinuation.