Valuing the cultural monuments of Armenia: Bayesian updating of prior beliefs in contingent valuation

The most appropriate way to measure the social benefits of conserving built cultural heritage sites is to ask the beneficiaries of conservation interventions how much they would be willing to pay for them. We use contingent valuation - a survey-based approach that elicits willingness to pay (WTP) directly from individuals - to estimate the benefits of a nationwide conservation of built cultural heritage sites in Armenia. The survey was administered to Armenian nationals living in Armenia, and obtained extensive information about the respondents' perceptions of the current state of conservation of monuments in Armenia, described the current situation, presented a hypothetical conservation program, elicited WTP for it, and queried individuals about what they thought would happen to monument sites in the absence of the government conservation program. We posit that respondents combined the information about the fate of monuments provided by the questionnaire with their prior beliefs, and that WTP for the good, or program, is likely to be affected by these updated beliefs. We propose a Bayesian updating model of prior beliefs, and empirically implement it with the data from our survey. We found that uncertainty about what would happen to monuments in the absence of the program results in lower WTP amounts. © 2008 Pion Ltd and its Licensors.

Artificial Intelligence Model for Flowable Concrete Mixtures Used in Underwater Construction and Repair

This study explores using artificial neural networks to predict the rheological and mechanical properties of underwater concrete (UWC) mixtures and to evaluate the sensitivity of such properties to variations in mixture ingredients. Artificial neural networks (ANN) mimic the structure and operation of biological neurons and have the unique ability of self-learning, mapping, and functional approximation. Details of the development of the proposed neural network model, its architecture, training, and validation are presented in this study. A database incorporating 175 UWC mixtures from nine different studies was developed to train and test the ANN model. The data are arranged in a patterned format. Each pattern contains an input vector that includes quantity values of the mixture variables influencing the behavior of UWC mixtures (that is, cement, silica fume, fly ash, slag, water, coarse and fine aggregates, and chemical admixtures) and a corresponding output vector that includes the rheological or mechanical property to be modeled. Results show that the ANN model thus developed is not only capable of accurately predicting the slump, slump-flow, washout resistance, and compressive strength of underwater concrete mixtures used in the training process, but it can also effectively predict the aforementioned properties for new mixtures designed within the practical range of the input parameters used in the training process with an absolute error of 4.6, 10.6, 10.6, and 4.4%, respectively.

‘Med Hondo’s Sarraounia: The musical articulation of cultural transformation’

This article examines music in Med Hondo’s Sarraounia, considering how it contributes to the dramatic form of the movie while concurrently articulating narratives regarding cultural transformation through both its extrinsic (cultural) and intrinsic (formal) dimensions. Examining how the use of traditional and contemporary African music politicises diegetic space by referring us to the relationships between indigenous musical forms and their global, culturally hybrid descendents, it then demonstrates the complex manner in which the film uses the formal specificities of African and Western musical idioms to articulate a narrative regarding the cultural transformations that occur when an oral culture (Africa) encounters a literate, modernised culture (the West).