Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Postglacial dispersal, rather than in situ glacial survival, best explains the disjunct distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica (Ericaceae)

Aim:

The distribution of the Lusitanian flora and fauna, species which are found only in southern and western Ireland and in northern Spain and Portugal but which are absent from intervening countries, represents one of the classic conundrums of biogeography. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica was due to persistence in separate Irish and Iberian refugia, or has resulted from post-glacial recolonization followed by subsequent extinction of intervening populations.

Location:

Northern Spain and Co. Galway, western Ireland.

Methods:

Palaeodistribution modelling using Maxent was employed to identify putative refugial areas for D. cantabrica at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Phylogeographical analysis of samples from 64 locations in Ireland and Spain were carried out using a chloroplast marker (atpB–rbcL), the nuclear ITS region, and an anonymous nuclear single-copy locus.

Results:

The palaeodistribution model indicated areas with a high probability of survival for D. cantabrica at the LGM off the western coast of Galicia in Spain, and in the Bay of Biscay. Spanish populations exhibited substantially higher genetic diversity than Irish populations at all three loci, as well as geographical structuring of haplotypes within Spain consistent with divergence in separate refugia. Spanish populations also exhibited far more endemic haplotypes. Divergence time between Irish and Spanish populations associated with the putative Biscay refugium was estimated as 3.333–32 ka.

Main conclusions:

Our data indicate persistence by D. cantabrica throughout the LGM in two separate southern refugia: one in western Galicia and one in the area off the coast of western France which now lies in the Bay of Biscay. Spain was recolonized from both refugia, whilst Ireland was most likely recolonized from the Biscay refugium. On the balance of evidence across the three marker types and the palaeodistribution modelling, our findings do not support the idea of in situ survival of D. cantabrica in Ireland, contrary to earlier suggestions. The fact that we cannot conclusively rule out the existence of a small, more northerly refugium, however, highlights the need for further analysis of Lusitanian plant species.

Large-scale spatial patterns in the distribution of Collembola (Hexapoda) species in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems

We tested whether the distribution of three common springtail species (Gressittacantha terranova, Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni and Friesea grisea) in Victoria Land (Antarctica) could be modelled as a function of latitude, longitude, altitude and distance from the sea.

Victoria Land, Ross Dependency, Antarctica.

Generalized linear models were constructed using species presence/absence data relative to geographical features (latitude, longitude, altitude, distance from sea) across the species' entire ranges. Model results were then integrated with the known phylogeography of each species and hypotheses were generated on the role of climate as a major driver of Antarctic springtail distribution.

Based on model selection using Akaike's information criterion, the species' distributions were: hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with altitude for Gressittacantha terranova; hump-shaped relative to latitude and monotonic with altitude for Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni; and hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with latitude, altitude and distance from the sea for Friesea grisea.

No single distributional pattern was shared by the three species. While distributions were partially a response to climatic spatial clines, the patterns observed strongly suggest that past geological events have influenced the observed distributions. Accordingly, present-day spatial patterns are likely to have arisen from the interaction of historical and environmental drivers. Future studies will need to integrate a range of spatial and temporal scales to further quantify their respective roles.

Behavioural context of multi-scale species distribution models assessed by radio-tracking

Incorporating ecological processes and animal behaviour into Species Distribution Models (SDMs) is difficult. In species with a central resting or breeding place, there can be conflict between the environmental requirements of the 'central place' and foraging habitat. We apply a multi-scale SDM to examine habitat trade-offs between the central place, roost sites, and foraging habitat in . Myotis nattereri. We validate these derived associations using habitat selection from behavioural observations of radio-tracked bats. A Generalised Linear Model (GLM) of roost occurrence using land cover variables with mixed spatial scales indicated roost occurrence was positively associated with woodland on a fine scale and pasture on a broad scale. Habitat selection of radio-tracked bats mirrored the SDM with bats selecting for woodland in the immediate vicinity of individual roosts but avoiding this habitat in foraging areas, whilst pasture was significantly positively selected for in foraging areas. Using habitat selection derived from radio-tracking enables a multi-scale SDM to be interpreted in a behavioural context. We suggest that the multi-scale SDM of . M. nattereri describes a trade-off between the central place and foraging habitat. Multi-scale methods provide a greater understanding of the ecological processes which determine where species occur and allow integration of behavioural processes into SDMs. The findings have implications when assessing the resource use of a species at a single point in time. Doing so could lead to misinterpretation of habitat requirements as these can change within a short time period depending on specific behaviour, particularly if detectability changes depending on behaviour. © 2011 Gesellschaft für ökologie.

Proteomics on porcine haptoglobin and IgG/IgA show protein species distribution and glycosylation pattern to remain similar in PCV2-SD infection

Haptoglobin (Hp) and immunoglobulins are plasma glycoproteins involved in the immune reaction of the organism after infection and/or inflammation. Porcine circovirus type 2-systemic disease (PCV2-SD), formerly known as postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS), is a globally spread pig disease of great economic impact. PCV2-SD affects the immunological system of pigs causing immunosuppression. The aim of this work was to characterize the Hp protein species of healthy and PCV2-SD affected pigs, as well as the protein backbone and the glycan chain composition of porcine Hp. PCV2-SD affected pigs had an increased overall Hp level, but it did not affect the ratio between Hp species. Glycoproteomic analysis of the Hp β subunits confirmed that porcine Hp is N-glycosylated and, unexpectedly, O-glycosylated, a PTM that is not found on Hp from healthy humans. The glyco-profile of porcine IgG and IgA heavy chains was also characterized; decreased levels of both proteins were found in the investigated group of PCV2-SD affected pigs. Obtained results indicate that no significant changes in the N- and O-glycosylation patterns of these major porcine plasma glycoproteins were detectable between healthy and PCV2-SD affected animals.

Distribution Network Voltage Support Using Sensitivity-based Dispatch of Distributed Generation

This paper is concerned with the voltage and reactive power issues surrounding the connection of Distributed Generation (DG) on the low-voltage (LV) distribution network. The presented system-wide voltage control algorithm consists of three stages. Firstly available reactive power reserves are utilized. Then, if required, DG active power output is curtailed. Finally, curtailment of non-critical site demand is considered. The control methodology is tested on a variant of the 13-bus IEEE Node Radial Distribution Test Feeder. The presented control algorithm demonstrated that the distribution system operator (DSO) can maintain voltage levels within a desired statutory range by dispatching reactive power from DG or network devices. The practical application of the control strategy is discussed.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Coherence and discontinuity in the scaling of species' distribution patterns

The spatial distribution of a species can be characterized at many different spatial scales, from fine-scale measures of local population density to coarse-scale geographical-range structure. Previous studies have shown a degree of correlation in species' distribution patterns across narrow ranges of scales, making it possible to predict fine-scale properties from coarser-scale distributions. To test the limits of such extrapolation, we have compiled distributional information on 16 species of British plants, at scales ranging across six orders of magnitude in linear resolution (1 in to 100 km). As expected, the correlation between patterns at different spatial scales tends to degrade as the scales become more widely separated. There is, however, an abrupt breakdown in cross-scale correlations across intermediate (ca. 0.5 km) scales, suggesting that local and regional patterns are influenced by essentially non-overlapping sets of processes. The scaling discontinuity may also reflect characteristic scales of human land use in Britain, suggesting a novel method for analysing the 'footprint' of humanity on a landscape.

Chemistry and Distribution of Daughter Species in the Circumstellar Envelopes of O-Rich AGB Stars

Context. Thanks to the advent of Herschel and ALMA, new high-quality observations of molecules present in the circumstellar envelopes of asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars are being reported that reveal large differences from the existing chemical models. New molecular data and more comprehensive models of the chemistry in circumstellar envelopes are now available.
Aims: The aims are to determine and study the important formation and destruction pathways in the envelopes of O-rich AGB stars and to provide more reliable predictions of abundances, column densities, and radial distributions for potentially detectable species with physical conditions applicable to the envelope surrounding IK Tau.
Methods: We use a large gas-phase chemical model of an AGB envelope including the effects of CO and N2 self-shielding in a spherical geometry and a newly compiled list of inner-circumstellar envelope parent species derived from detailed modeling and observations. We trace the dominant chemistry in the expanding envelope and investigate the chemistry as a probe for the physics of the AGB phase by studying variations of abundances with mass-loss rates and expansion velocities.
Results: We find a pattern of daughter molecules forming from the photodissociation products of parent species with contributions from ion-neutral abstraction and dissociative recombination. The chemistry in the outer zones differs from that in traditional PDRs in that photoionization of daughter species plays a significant role. With the proper treatment of self-shielding, the N → N2 and C+→ CO transitions are shifted outward by factors of 7 and 2, respectively, compared with earlier models. An upper limit on the abundance of CH4 as a parent species of (≲2.5 × 10-6 with respect to H2) is found for IK Tau, and several potentially observable molecules with relatively simple chemical links to other parent species are determined. The assumed stellar mass-loss rate, in particular, has an impact on the calculated abundances of cations and the peak-abundance radius of both cations and neutrals: as the mass-loss rate increases, the peak abundance of cations generally decreases and the peak-abundance radius of all species moves outwards. The effects of varying the envelope expansion velocity and cosmic-ray ionization rate are not as significant.

Species composition of coastal dune vegetation in Scotland has proved resistant to climate change over a third of a century

Climate change is expected to have an impact on plant communities as increased temperatures are expected to drive individual species' distributions polewards. The results of a revisitation study after c. 34years of 89 coastal sites in Scotland, UK, were examined to assess the degree of shifts in species composition that could be accounted for by climate change. There was little evidence for either species retreat northwards or for plots to become more dominated by species with a more southern distribution. At a few sites where significant change occurred, the changes were accounted for by the invasion, or in one instance the removal, of woody species. Also, the vegetation types that showed the most sensitivity to change were all early successional types and changes were primarily the result of succession rather than climate-driven changes. Dune vegetation appears resistant to climate change impacts on the vegetation, either as the vegetation is inherently resistant to change, management prevents increased dominance of more southerly species or because of dispersal limitation to geographically isolated sites.

Modelling the influence of biotic factors on species distribution patterns

Biotic interactions can have large effects on species distributions yet their role in shaping species ranges is seldom explored due to historical difficulties in incorporating biotic factors into models without a priori knowledge on interspecific interactions. Improved SDMs, which account for biotic factors and do not require a priori knowledge on species interactions, are needed to fully understand species distributions. Here, we model the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on species distribution patterns and explore the robustness of distributions under future climate change. We fit hierarchical spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) for lagomorph species throughout Europe and test the predictive ability of models containing only abiotic factors against models containing abiotic and biotic factors. We account for residual spatial autocorrelation using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Model outputs are used to estimate areas in which abiotic and biotic factors determine species’ ranges. INLA models containing both abiotic and biotic factors had substantially better predictive ability than models containing abiotic factors only, for all but one of the four species. In models containing abiotic and biotic factors, both appeared equally important as determinants of lagomorph ranges, but the influences were spatially heterogeneous. Parts of widespread lagomorph ranges highly influenced by biotic factors will be less robust to future changes in climate, whereas parts of more localised species ranges highly influenced by the environment may be less robust to future climate. SDMs that do not explicitly include biotic factors are potentially misleading and omit a very important source of variation. For the field of species distribution modelling to advance, biotic factors must be taken into account in order to improve the reliability of predicting species distribution patterns both presently and under future climate change.

Nitrate reductase activity in macroalgae and its vertical distribution in macroalgal epiphytes of seagrasses.

Macroalgal epiphytes within seagrass meadows make a significant contribution to total primary production by assimilating water column N and transferring organic N to sediments. Assimilation of NO3 – requires nitrate reductase (NR, EC 1.6.6.1); NR activity represents the capacity for NO3 – assimilation. An optimised in vitro assay for determining NR activity in algal extracts was applied to a wide range of macroalgae and detected NR activity in all 22 species tested with activity 2 to 290 nmolNO3 – min–1 g–1 frozen thallus. With liquid-N2 freezing immediately after sample collection, this method was practical for estimating NR activity in field samples. Vertical distribution of NR activity in macroalgal epiphytes was compared in contrasting Posidonia sinuosa and Amphibolis antarctica seagrass meadows. Epiphytes on P. sinuosa had higher mass-specific NR activity than those on A. antarctica. In P. sinuosa canopies, NR activity increased with distance from the sediment surface and was negatively correlated with [NH4 +] in the water but uncorrelated with [NO3 –]. This supported the hypothesis that NH4 + released from the sediment suppresses NR in epiphytic algae. In contrast, the vertical variation in NR activity in macroalgae on A. antarctica was not statistically significant although there was a weak correlation with [NO3 –], which increased with distance from the sediment. Estimated capacities for NO3 – assimilation in macroalgae epiphytic on seagrasses during summer (24 and 46 mmolN m–2 d–1 for P. sinuosa and A. antarctica, respectively) were more than twice the estimated N assimilation rates in similar seagrasses. When the estimates were based on annual average epiphyte loads for seagrass meadows in other locations, they were comparable to those of seagrasses. We conclude that epiphytic algae represent a potentially important sink for water-column nitrate within seagrass meadows.

Sediment distribution, hydrolytic enzyme profiles and bacterial activities in the guts of Oneirophanta mutabilis, Psychropotes longicauda and Pseudostichopus - what do they tell us about digestive strategies of abyssal holothurians?

This paper describes inter-specific differences in the distribution of sediment in the gut compartments and in the enzyme and bacterial profiles along the gut of abyssal holothurian species — Oneirophanta mutabilis, Psychropotes longicauda and Pseudostichopus villosus sampled from a eutrophic site in the NE Atlantic at different times of the year. Proportions of sediments, relative to total gut contents, in the pharynx, oesophagus, anterior and posterior intestine differed significantly in all the inter-species comparisons, but not between inter-seasonal comparisons. Significant differences were also found between the relative proportions of sediments in both the rectum and cloaca of Psychropotes longicauda and Oneirophanta mutabilis. Nineteen enzymes were identified in either gut-tissue or gut-content samples of the holothurians studied. Concentrations of the enzymes in gut tissues and their contents were highly correlated. Greater concentrations of the enzymes were found in the gut tissues suggesting that they are the main source of the enzymes. The suites of enzymes recorded were broadly similar in each of the species sampled collected regardless of the time of the year, and they were similar to those described previously for shallow-water holothurians. Significant inter-specific differences in the gut tissue concentrations of some of the glycosidases suggest dietary differences. For example, Psychropotes longicauda and Pseudostichopus villosus contain higher levels of chitobiase than Oneirophanta mutabilis. There were no seasonal changes in bacterial activity profiles along the guts of O. mutabilis and Pseudostichopus villosus. In both these species bacterial activity and abundance declined between the pharynx/oesophagus and anterior intestine, but then increased along the gut and became greatest in the rectum/cloaca. Although the data sets were more limited for Psychropotes longicauda, bacterial activity increased from the anterior to the posterior intestine but then declined slightly to the rectum/cloaca. These changes in bacterial activity and densities probably reflect changes in the microbial environment along the guts of abyssal holothurians. Such changes suggest that there is potential for microbial breakdown of a broader range of substrates than could be otherwise be achieved by the holothurian itself. However, the present study found no evidence for sedimentary (microbial) sources of hydrolytic enzymes.