Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in different primary healthcare systems with and without pay-for-performance

Objective: To compare baseline cardiovascular risk management between people recruited from two different healthcare systems, to a research trial of an intervention to optimize secondary prevention. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: General practices, randomly selected: 16 in Northern Ireland (NI) (UK NHS, ‘strong’ infrastructure); 32 in Republic of Ireland (RoI) (mixed healthcare economy, less infrastructure). Patients: 903 (mean age 67.5 years; 69.9% male); randomly selected, known coronary heart disease. Main outcome measures: Blood pressure, cholesterol, medications; validated questionnaires for diet (DINE), exercise (Godin), quality of life (SF12); healthcare usage. Results: More RoI than NI participants had systolic BP>140 mmHg (37% v 28%, p=0.01) and cholesterol >5mmol/l (24% v 17%, p=0.02): RoI mean systolic BP was higher (139 v 132 mm Hg). More RoI participants reported a high fibre intake (35% v 23%), higher levels of physical activity (62% v 44%), and better physical and mental health (SF12); they had more GP (5.6 v 4.4) and fewer nurse visits (1.6 v 2.1) in the previous year. Fewer in RoI (55% v 70%) were prescribed B blockers. Both groups’ ACE inhibitor (41%; 48%) prescribing was similar; high proportions were prescribed statins (84%; 85%) and aspirin (83%; 77%). Conclusions Blood pressure and cholesterol are better controlled among patients in a primary healthcare system with a ‘strong’ infrastructure supporting computerization and rewarding measured performance but this is not associated with healthier lifestyle or better quality of life. Further exploration of differences in professionals’ and patients’ engagement in secondary prevention in different healthcare systems is needed.

Contribution of 30 Biomarkers to 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in 2 population cohorts: The MONICA, risk, genetics, archiving and monograph (MORGAM) biomarker project

Background— Cardiovascular risk estimation by novel biomarkers needs assessment in disease-free population cohorts, followed up for incident cardiovascular events, assaying the serum and plasma archived at baseline. We report results from 2 cohorts in such a continuing study.
Methods and Results— Thirty novel biomarkers from different pathophysiological pathways were evaluated in 7915 men and women of the FINRISK97 population cohort with 538 incident cardiovascular events at 10 years (fatal or nonfatal coronary or stroke events), from which a biomarker score was developed and then validated in the 2551 men of the Belfast Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) cohort (260 events). No single biomarker consistently improved risk estimation in FINRISK97 men and FINRISK97 women and the Belfast PRIME Men cohort after allowing for confounding factors; however, the strongest associations (with hazard ratio per SD in FINRISK97 men) were found for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (1.23), C-reactive protein (1.23), B-type natriuretic peptide (1.19), and sensitive troponin I (1.18). A biomarker score was developed from the FINRISK97 cohort with the use of regression coefficients and lasso methods, with selection of troponin I, C-reactive protein, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Adding this score to a conventional risk factor model in the Belfast PRIME Men cohort validated it by improved c-statistics (P=0.004) and integrated discrimination (P<0.0001) and led to significant reclassification of individuals into risk categories (P=0.0008).
Conclusions— The addition of a biomarker score including N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and sensitive troponin I to a conventional risk model improved 10-year risk estimation for cardiovascular events in 2 middle-aged European populations. Further validation is needed in other populations and age groups.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2), inflammatory biomarkers, and risk of cardiovascular disease in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER)

Objective: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)) is an inflammatory biomarker that circulates mainly bound to LDL. We evaluated the association of Lp-PLA(2) with vascular events in the elderly where the importance of LDL is diminished as a risk factor for coronary disease.