Towards an integrated forecasting system for pelagic fisheries

First results of a coupled modeling and forecasting system for the pelagic fisheries are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically fundamentally different model subsystems: POLCOMS-ERSEM providing the physical-biogeochemical environment implemented in the domain of the North-West European shelf and the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea. The third component, the SLAM model, connects POLCOMS-ERSEM and SPAM by computing the physical-biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and lower trophic levels to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the base of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeels stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock eigen dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

Seasonal Sedimentation Of Phytoplankton To The Deep-Sea Benthos

Until recently the deep sea was considered to be a particularly stable environment1, free from seasonal variations. However, atmospheric storms may cause periodicity in deep-ocean currents2 and nepheloid layers3 while seasonality in the particulate flux to the deep sea is known to occur in the Sargasso Sea4,5 and Panama Basin6. Evidence is presented here of a similar seasonal pulse of detrital material to bathyal and abyssal depths in temperate latitudes; this material seems to be derived directly from the surface primary production and to sink rapidly to the deep-sea benthos. Considerable sedimentation occurs soon after the spring bloom and continues throughout the early summer. This process acts as a pathway for the descent of carbon from the euphotic zone, providing a periodic food source for the deep pelagic and benthic communities.