Probabilistic modeling of structural deterioration of reinforced concrete beams under saline environment corrosion

For existing reinforced concrete structures exposed to saline or marine conditions, there is an increasing engineering interest in their remaining safety and serviceability. A significant factor is the corrosion of steel reinforcement. At present there is little field experience and other data available. This limits the possibility for developing purely empirical models for strength and performance deterioration for use in structural safety and serviceability assessment. An alternative approach using theoretical concepts and probabilistic modeling is proposed herein. It is based on the evidence that the rate of diffusion of chlorides is influenced by internal damage to the concrete surrounding the reinforcement. This may be due to localized stresses resulting from external loading or through concrete shrinkage. Usually, the net effect is that the time to initiation of active corrosion is shortened, leading to greater localized corrosion and earlier reduction of ultimate capacity and structural stiffness. The proposed procedure is applied to an example beam and compared to experimental observations,including estimates of uncertainty in the remaining ultimate moment capacity and beam stiffness. Reasonably good agreement between the results of the proposed procedure and the experiment was found

A modelling approach for coupling numerical analytical techniques applied in microsystems

In this paper, a method for the integration of several numerical analytical techniques that are used in microsystems design and failure analysis is presented. The analytical techniques are categorized into four groups in the discussion, namely the high-fidelity analytical tools, i.e. finite element (FE) method, the fast analytical tools referring to reduced order modeling (ROM); the optimization tools, and probability based analytical tools. The characteristics of these four tools are investigated. The interactions between the four tools are discussed and a methodology for the coupling of these four tools is offered. This methodology consists of three stages, namely reduced order modeling, deterministic optimization and probabilistic optimization. Using this methodology, a case study for optimization of a solder joint is conducted. It is shown that these analysis techniques have mutual relationship of interaction and complementation. Synthetic application of these techniques can fully utilize the advantages of these techniques and satisfy various design requirements. The case study shows that the coupling method of different tools provided by this paper is effective and efficient and it is highly relevant in the design and reliability analysis of microsystems

Kappa calculus and evidential strength: A note on Åqvist's logical theory of legal evidence

Lennart Åqvist (1992) proposed a logical theory of legal evidence, based on the Bolding-Ekelöf of degrees of evidential strength. This paper reformulates Åqvist's model in terms of the probabilistic version of the kappa calculus. Proving its acceptability in the legal context is beyond the present scope, but the epistemological debate about Bayesian Law isclearly relevant. While the present model is a possible link to that lineof inquiry, we offer some considerations about the broader picture of thepotential of AI & Law in the evidentiary context. Whereas probabilisticreasoning is well-researched in AI, calculations about the threshold ofpersuasion in litigation, whatever their value, are just the tip of theiceberg. The bulk of the modeling desiderata is arguably elsewhere, if one isto ideally make the most of AI's distinctive contribution as envisaged forlegal evidence research.

Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements

Most of the air quality modelling work has been so far oriented towards deterministic simulations of ambient pollutant concentrations. This traditional approach, which is based on the use of one selected model and one data set of discrete input values, does not reflect the uncertainties due to errors in model formulation and input data. Given the complexities of urban environments and the inherent limitations of mathematical modelling, it is unlikely that a single model based on routinely available meteorological and emission data will give satisfactory short-term predictions. In this study, different methods involving the use of more than one dispersion model, in association with different emission simulation methodologies and meteorological data sets, were explored for predicting best CO and benzene estimates, and related confidence bounds. The different approaches were tested using experimental data obtained during intensive monitoring campaigns in busy street canyons in Paris, France. Three relative simple dispersion models (STREET, OSPM and AEOLIUS) that are likely to be used for regulatory purposes were selected for this application. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to identify internal model parameters that might significantly affect results. Finally, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed.

Ergodicity and stability of generalised Markov branching processes with resurrection

This paper concentrates on investigating ergodicity and stability for generalised Markov branching processes with resurrection. Easy checking criteria including several clear-cut corollaries are established for ordinary and strong ergodicity of such processes. The equilibrium distribution is given in an elegant closed form for the ergodic case. The probabilistic interpretation of the results is clear and thus explained.

Probabilistic approach in weighted Markov branching processes

This note provides a new probabilistic approach in discussing the weighted Markov branching process (WMBP) which is a natural generalisation of the ordinary Markov branching process. Using this approach, some important characteristics regarding the hitting times of such processes can be easily obtained. In particular, the closed forms for the mean extinction time and conditional mean extinction time are presented. The explosion behaviour of the process is investigated and the mean explosion time is derived. The mean global holding time and the mean total survival time are also obtained. The close link between these newly developed processes and the well-known compound Poisson processes is investigated. It is revealed that any weighted Markov branching process (WMBP) is a random time change of a compound Poisson process.

Effect of caffeine ingestion during prolonged exhaustive exercise on salivary immunoglobulin A, alpha-amylase and cortisol

Exercise can have deleterious effects on the secretion of salivary immunoglobulin A (s-IgA), which appears to be related to perturbations in sympatheticoadrenal activation (Teeuw et al., 2004). Caffeine, commonly used for its ergogenic properties is associated with increased sympathetic nervous system activity, and it has been previously shown that caffeine ingestion before intensive cycling enhances s-IgA responses during exercise (Bishop et al., 2006). Therefore, the aim of the present study was to examine the effect of a performance cereal bar, containing caffeine, before and during prolonged exhaustive cycling on exercise performance and the salivary secretion of IgA, alpha-amylase activity and cortisol. Using a randomised cross-over design and following a 10 – 12 hour overnight fast, 12 trained cyclists, mean (SEM) age: 21(1) yr; height: 179(2) cm; body mass: 73.6(2.5) kg; maximal oxygen uptake, VO2max: 57.9(1.2) completed 2.5 h of cycling at 60%VO2max (with regular water ingestion) on a stationary ergometer, which was followed by a ride to exhaustion at 75% VO2max. Immediately before exercise, and after 55 min and 115 min of exercise participants ingested a 0.9 MJ cereal bar containing 45 g carbohydrate, 5 g protein, 3 g fat and 100 mg of caffeine (CAF) or an isocaloric noncaffeine bar (PLA). Unstimulated timed saliva samples were collected immediately before exercise, after 70 min and 130 min of exercise, and immediately after the exhaustive exercise bout. Saliva was analysed for s-IgA, alpha-amylase activity and cortisol concentration. Saliva flow rates were determined to calculate the s-IgA secretion rate. Data were analysed using a 2-way repeated measures ANOVA and post-hoc t-tests with Holm Bonferroni adjustments applied where appropriate. Time to exhaustion was 35% longer in CAF compared with PLA ((2177 (0.2) vs 1615 (0.16) s; P < 0.05)). Saliva flow rate did not change significantly during the exercise protocol. Exercise was associated with elevations in s-IgA concentration (9% increase), s-IgA secretion rate (24% increase) and alpha-amylase activity (224% increase) post-exhaustion (P < 0.01), but there was no effect of CAF on these responses. Salivary cortisol concentration increased by 64% post-exhaustion in the CAF trial only (P < 0.05), indicating an increase in adrenal activity following caffeine ingestion. Values were 35.7 (5.5) and 19.6 (3.4) nmol/L post-exhaustion for CAF and PLA, respectively. These findings show that ingestion of a caffeine containing cereal bar during prolonged exhaustive cycling enhances endurance performance, increases salivary cortisol secretion post-exhaustion, but does not affect the exercise-induced increases in s-IgA or alpha-amylase activity.

Influence of a fed or fasted state on the s-IgA response to prolonged cycling in active men and women

This study investigated the effect of a fed or fasted state on the salivary immunoglobulin A (s-IgA) response to prolonged cycling. Using a randomized, crossover design, 16 active adults (8 men and 8 women) performed 2 hr of cycling on a stationary ergometer at 65% of maximal oxygen uptake on 1 occasion after an overnight fast (FAST) and on another occasion 2 hr after consuming a 2.2-MJ high-carbohydrate meal (FED). Timed, unstimulated whole saliva samples were collected immediately before ingestion of the meal, immediately preexercise, 5 min before cessation of exercise, immediately postexercise, and 1 hr postexercise. The samples were analyzed for s-IgA concentration, osmolality, and cortisol, and saliva flow rates were determined to calculate s-IgA secretion rate. Saliva flow rate decreased by 50% during exercise (p < .05), and s-IgA concentration increased by 42% (p < .05), but s-IgA secretion rate remained unchanged. There was a 37% reduction in s-IgA:osmolality postexercise (p < .05), and salivary cortisol increased by 68% (p < .05). There was no effect of FED vs. FAST on these salivary responses. The s-IgA concentration, secretion rate, and osmolality were found to be significantly lower in women than in men throughout the exercise protocol (p < .05); however, there was no difference between genders in saliva flow rate, s-IgA:osmolality ratio, or cortisol. These data demonstrate that a fed or fasted state 2 hr before exercise does not influence resting s-IgA or the response to prolonged cycling. Furthermore, these results show lower levels of s-IgA and osmolality in women than in men at rest.

Effects of exercise intensity on salivary antimicrobial proteins and markers of stress in active men

In the present study, we assessed the effects of exercise intensity on salivary immunoglobulin A (s-IgA) and salivary lysozyme (s-Lys) and examined how these responses were associated with salivary markers of adrenal activation. Using a randomized design, 10 healthy active men participated in three experimental cycling trials: 50% maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), 75%VO2max, and an incremental test to exhaustion. The durations of the trials were the same as for a preliminary incremental test to exhaustion (22.3 min, sx = 0.8). Timed, unstimulated saliva samples were collected before exercise, immediately after exercise, and 1 h after exercise. In the incremental exhaustion trial, the secretion rates of both s-IgA and s-Lys were increased. An increase in s-Lys secretion rate was also observed at 75%VO2max. No significant changes in saliva flow rate were observed in any trial. Cycling at 75%VOmax and to exhaustion increased the secretion of alpha-amylase and chromogranin A immediately after exercise; higher cortisol values at 75%VO2max and in the incremental exhaustion trial compared with 50%VO2max were observed 1 h immediately after exercise only. These findings suggest that short-duration, high-intensity exercise increases the secretion rate of s-IgA and s-Lys despite no change in the saliva flow rate. These effects appear to be associated with changes in sympathetic activity and not the hypothalamic - pituitary - adrenal axis.