Expectation Modulates Episodic Memory Formation via Dopaminergic Circuitry

Episodic memory formation is shaped by expectation. Events that generate expectations have the capacity to influence memory. Additionally, whether subsequent events meet or violate expectations has consequences for memory. However, clarification is still required to illuminate the circumstances and direction of memory modulation. In the brain, the mechanisms by which expectation modulates memory formation also require consideration. The dopamine system has been implicated in signaling events associated with different states of expectancy; it has also been shown to modulate episodic memory formation in the hippocampus. Thus, the studies included in this dissertation utilized both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and behavioral testing to examine when and how the dopaminergic system supports the modulation of memory by expectation. The work aimed to characterize the activation of dopaminergic circuitry in response to cues that generate expectancy, during periods of anticipation, and in response to outcomes that resolve expectancy. The studies also examined how each of these event types influenced episodic memory formation. The present findings demonstrated that novelty and expectancy violation both drive dopaminergic circuitry capable of contributing to memory formation. Consistent with elevated dopaminergic midbrain and hippocampus activation for each, expected versus expectancy violating novelty did not differentially affect memory success. We also showed that high curiosity expectancy states drive memory formation. This was supported by activation in dopaminergic circuitry that was greater for subsequently remembered information only in the high curiosity state. Finally, we showed that cues that generate high expected reward value versus high reward uncertainty differentially modulate memory formation during reward anticipation. This behavioral result was consistent with distinct temporal profiles of dopaminergic action having differential downstream effects on episodic memory formation. Integrating the present studies with previous research suggests that dopaminergic circuitry signals events that are unpredicted, whether cuing or resolving expectations. It also suggests that contextual differences change the contribution of the dopaminergic system during anticipation, depending on the nature of the expectation. And finally, this work is consistent with a model in which dopamine elevation in response to expectancy events positively modulates episodic memory formation.

Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Scalable Computation for Computer Models with Massive Output

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is both an old and new concept. The current novelty lies in the interactions and synthesis of mathematical models, computer experiments, statistics, field/real experiments, and probability theory, with a particular emphasize on the large-scale simulations by computer models. The challenges not only come from the complication of scientific questions, but also from the size of the information. It is the focus in this thesis to provide statistical models that are scalable to massive data produced in computer experiments and real experiments, through fast and robust statistical inference.

Chapter 2 provides a practical approach for simultaneously emulating/approximating massive number of functions, with the application on hazard quantification of Soufri\`{e}re Hills volcano in Montserrate island. Chapter 3 discusses another problem with massive data, in which the number of observations of a function is large. An exact algorithm that is linear in time is developed for the problem of interpolation of Methylation levels. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 are both about the robust inference of the models. Chapter 4 provides a new criteria robustness parameter estimation criteria and several ways of inference have been shown to satisfy such criteria. Chapter 5 develops a new prior that satisfies some more criteria and is thus proposed to use in practice.