Confidence intervals for half-life deviations from purchasing power parity

Existing point estimates of half-life deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP), around 3-5 years, suggest that the speed of convergence is extremely slow. This article assesses the degree of uncertainty around these point estimates by using local-to-unity asymptotic theory to construct confidence intervals that are robust to high persistence in small samples. The empirical evidence suggests that the lower bound of the confidence interval is between four and eight quarters for most currencies, which is not inconsistent with traditional price-stickiness explanations. However, the upper bounds are infinity for all currencies, so we cannot provide conclusive evidence in favor of PPP either. © 2005 American Statistical Association.

Mechanistic Models of Anti-HIV Microbicide Drug Delivery

A new modality for preventing HIV transmission is emerging in the form of topical microbicides. Some clinical trials have shown some promising results of these methods of protection while other trials have failed to show efficacy. Due to the relatively novel nature of microbicide drug transport, a rigorous, deterministic analysis of that transport can help improve the design of microbicide vehicles and understand results from clinical trials. This type of analysis can aid microbicide product design by helping understand and organize the determinants of drug transport and the potential efficacies of candidate microbicide products.

Microbicide drug transport is modeled as a diffusion process with convection and reaction effects in appropriate compartments. This is applied here to vaginal gels and rings and a rectal enema, all delivering the microbicide drug Tenofovir. Although the focus here is on Tenofovir, the methods established in this dissertation can readily be adapted to other drugs, given knowledge of their physical and chemical properties, such as the diffusion coefficient, partition coefficient, and reaction kinetics. Other dosage forms such as tablets and fiber meshes can also be modeled using the perspective and methods developed here.

The analyses here include convective details of intravaginal flows by both ambient fluid and spreading gels with different rheological properties and applied volumes. These are input to the overall conservation equations for drug mass transport in different compartments. The results are Tenofovir concentration distributions in time and space for a variety of microbicide products and conditions. The Tenofovir concentrations in the vaginal and rectal mucosal stroma are converted, via a coupled reaction equation, to concentrations of Tenofovir diphosphate, which is the active form of the drug that functions as a reverse transcriptase inhibitor against HIV. Key model outputs are related to concentrations measured in experimental pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, e.g. concentrations in biopsies and blood. A new measure of microbicide prophylactic functionality, the Percent Protected, is calculated. This is the time dependent volume of the entire stroma (and thus fraction of host cells therein) in which Tenofovir diphosphate concentrations equal or exceed a target prophylactic value, e.g. an EC50.

Results show the prophylactic potentials of the studied microbicide vehicles against HIV infections. Key design parameters for each are addressed in application of the models. For a vaginal gel, fast spreading at small volume is more effective than slower spreading at high volume. Vaginal rings are shown to be most effective if inserted and retained as close to the fornix as possible. Because of the long half-life of Tenofovir diphosphate, temporary removal of the vaginal ring (after achieving steady state) for up to 24h does not appreciably diminish Percent Protected. However, full steady state (for the entire stromal volume) is not achieved until several days after ring insertion. Delivery of Tenofovir to the rectal mucosa by an enema is dominated by surface area of coated mucosa and whether the interiors of rectal crypts are filled with the enema fluid. For the enema 100% Percent Protected is achieved much more rapidly than for vaginal products, primarily because of the much thinner epithelial layer of the mucosa. For example, 100% Percent Protected can be achieved with a one minute enema application, and 15 minute wait time.

Results of these models have good agreement with experimental pharmacokinetic data, in animals and clinical trials. They also improve upon traditional, empirical PK modeling, and this is illustrated here. Our deterministic approach can inform design of sampling in clinical trials by indicating time periods during which significant changes in drug concentrations occur in different compartments. More fundamentally, the work here helps delineate the determinants of microbicide drug delivery. This information can be the key to improved, rational design of microbicide products and their dosage regimens.

cAMP stimulates transcription of the beta 2-adrenergic receptor gene in response to short-term agonist exposure.

In addition to conveying cellular responses to an effector molecule, receptors are often themselves regulated by their effectors. We have demonstrated that epinephrine modulates both the rate of transcription of the beta 2-adrenergic receptor (beta 2AR) gene and the steady-state level of beta 2AR mRNA in DDT1MF-2 cells. Short-term (30 min) exposure to epinephrine (100 nM) stimulates the rate of beta 2AR gene transcription, resulting in a 3- to 4-fold increase in steady-state beta 2AR mRNA levels. These effects are mimicked by 1 mM N6,O2'-dibutyryladenosine 3',5'-cyclic monophosphate (Bt2cAMP) or foskolin but not by phorbol esters. The half-life of the beta 2AR mRNA after addition of actinomycin D (46.7 +/- 10.2 min; mean +/- SEM; n = 5) remained unchanged after 30 min of epinephrine treatment (46.8 +/- 10.6 min; mean +/- SEM; n = 4), indicating that a change in transcription rate is the predominant factor responsible for the increase of beta 2AR mRNA. Whereas brief exposure to epinephrine or Bt2cAMP does not significantly affect the total number of cellular beta 2ARs (assessed by ligand binding), continued exposure results in a gradual decline in beta 2AR number to approximately 20% (epinephrine) or approximately 45% (Bt2cAMP) of the levels in control cells by 24 hr. Similar decreases in agonist-stimulated adenylyl cyclase activity are observed. This loss of receptors with prolonged agonist exposure is accompanied by a 50% reduction in beta 2AR mRNA. Transfection of the beta 2AR promoter region cloned onto a reporter gene (bacterial chloramphenicol acetyltransferase) allowed demonstration of a 2- to 4-fold induction of transcription by agents that elevate cAMP levels, such as forskolin or phosphodiesterase inhibitors. These results establish the presence of elements within the proximal promoter region of the beta 2AR gene responsible for the transcriptional enhancing activity of cAMP and demonstrate that beta 2AR gene expression is regulated by a type of feedback mechanism involving the second messenger cAMP.

Gender and racial/ethnic differences in addiction severity, HIV risk, and quality of life among adults in opioid detoxification: results from the National Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network.

PURPOSE: Detoxification often serves as an initial contact for treatment and represents an opportunity for engaging patients in aftercare to prevent relapse. However, there is limited information concerning clinical profiles of individuals seeking detoxification, and the opportunity to engage patients in detoxification for aftercare often is missed. This study examined clinical profiles of a geographically diverse sample of opioid-dependent adults in detoxification to discern the treatment needs of a growing number of women and whites with opioid addiction and to inform interventions aimed at improving use of aftercare or rehabilitation. METHODS: The sample included 343 opioid-dependent patients enrolled in two national multi-site studies of the National Drug Abuse Treatment Clinical Trials Network (CTN001-002). Patients were recruited from 12 addiction treatment programs across the nation. Gender and racial/ethnic differences in addiction severity, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk, and quality of life were examined. RESULTS: Women and whites were more likely than men and African Americans to have greater psychiatric and family/social relationship problems and report poorer health-related quality of life and functioning. Whites and Hispanics exhibited higher levels of total HIV risk scores and risky injection drug use scores than African Americans, and Hispanics showed a higher level of unprotected sexual behaviors than whites. African Americans were more likely than whites to use heroin and cocaine and to have more severe alcohol and employment problems. CONCLUSIONS: Women and whites show more psychopathology than men and African Americans. These results highlight the need to monitor an increased trend of opioid addiction among women and whites and to develop effective combined psychosocial and pharmacologic treatments to meet the diverse needs of the expanding opioid-abusing population. Elevated levels of HIV risk behaviors among Hispanics and whites also warrant more research to delineate mechanisms and to reduce their risky behaviors.

Young caregivers in the end-of-life setting: a population-based profile of an emerging group.

PURPOSE: Little is known about young caregivers of people with advanced life-limiting illness. Better understanding of the needs and characteristics of these young caregivers can inform development of palliative care and other support services. METHODS: A population-based analysis of caregivers was performed from piloted questions included in the 2001-2007 face-to-face annual health surveys of 23,706 South Australians on the death of a loved one, caregiving provided, and characteristics of the deceased individual and caregiver. The survey was representative of the population by age, gender, and region of residence. FINDINGS: Most active care was provided by older, close family members, but large numbers of young people (ages 15-29) also provided assistance to individuals with advanced life-limiting illness. They comprised 14.4% of those undertaking "hands-on" care on a daily or intermittent basis, whom we grouped together as active caregivers. Almost as many young males as females participate in active caregiving (men represent 46%); most provide care while being employed, including 38% who work full-time. Over half of those engaged in hands-on care indicated the experience to be worse or much worse than expected, with young people more frequently reporting dissatisfaction thereof. Young caregivers also exhibited an increased perception of the need for assistance with grief. CONCLUSION: Young people can be integral to end-of-life care, and represent a significant cohort of active caregivers with unique needs and experiences. They may have a more negative experience as caregivers, and increased needs for grief counseling services compared to other age cohorts of caregivers.

PKC signaling regulates drug resistance of the fungal pathogen Candida albicans via circuitry comprised of Mkc1, calcineurin, and Hsp90.

Fungal pathogens exploit diverse mechanisms to survive exposure to antifungal drugs. This poses concern given the limited number of clinically useful antifungals and the growing population of immunocompromised individuals vulnerable to life-threatening fungal infection. To identify molecules that abrogate resistance to the most widely deployed class of antifungals, the azoles, we conducted a screen of 1,280 pharmacologically active compounds. Three out of seven hits that abolished azole resistance of a resistant mutant of the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and a clinical isolate of the leading human fungal pathogen Candida albicans were inhibitors of protein kinase C (PKC), which regulates cell wall integrity during growth, morphogenesis, and response to cell wall stress. Pharmacological or genetic impairment of Pkc1 conferred hypersensitivity to multiple drugs that target synthesis of the key cell membrane sterol ergosterol, including azoles, allylamines, and morpholines. Pkc1 enabled survival of cell membrane stress at least in part via the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade in both species, though through distinct downstream effectors. Strikingly, inhibition of Pkc1 phenocopied inhibition of the molecular chaperone Hsp90 or its client protein calcineurin. PKC signaling was required for calcineurin activation in response to drug exposure in S. cerevisiae. In contrast, Pkc1 and calcineurin independently regulate drug resistance via a common target in C. albicans. We identified an additional level of regulatory control in the C. albicans circuitry linking PKC signaling, Hsp90, and calcineurin as genetic reduction of Hsp90 led to depletion of the terminal MAPK, Mkc1. Deletion of C. albicans PKC1 rendered fungistatic ergosterol biosynthesis inhibitors fungicidal and attenuated virulence in a murine model of systemic candidiasis. This work establishes a new role for PKC signaling in drug resistance, novel circuitry through which Hsp90 regulates drug resistance, and that targeting stress response signaling provides a promising strategy for treating life-threatening fungal infections.

The distribution of sales revenues from pharmaceutical innovation.

OBJECTIVE: This report updates our earlier work on the returns to pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) in the US (1980 to 1984), which showed that the returns distributions are highly skewed. It evaluates a more recent cohort of new drug introductions in the US (1988 to 1992) and examines how the returns distribution is emerging for drugs with life cycles concentrated in the 1990s versus the 1980s. DESIGN AND SETTING: Methods were described in detail in our earlier reports. The current sample included 110 new drug entities (including 28 orphan drugs), and sales data were obtained for the period 1988 to 1998, which represented between 7 and 11 years of sales for the drugs included. 20 years was chosen as the expected market life for this cohort, and a 2-step procedure was used to project future sales for the drugs--during the period until patent expiry and then beyond patent expiry until the 20-year time-horizon was completed. Thus, the values in the first half of the life cycle are essentially based on realised sales, while those in the second half are projected using information on patent expiry and other inputs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS: Peak annual sales for the top decile of drugs introduced between 1988 and 1992 in the US amounted to almost $US1.1 billion compared with peak sales of less than $US175 million (1992 values) for the mean compound. In particular, the top decile accounted for 56% of overall sales revenue. Although the sales distributions were skewed in both our earlier and current analysis, the top decile in the later time-period exhibited more rapid rates of growth after launch, a peak that was more than 50% greater in real terms than for the 1980 to 1984 cohort, and a faster rate of expected decline in sales after patent expiry. One factor contributing to the distribution of sales revenues becoming more skewed over time is the orphan drug phenomenon (i.e. most of the orphan drugs are concentrated at the bottom of the distribution). CONCLUSION: The distribution of sales revenues for new drug compounds is highly skewed in nature. In this regard, the top decile of new drugs accounts for more than half of the total sales generated by the 1988 to 1992 cohort analysed. Furthermore, the distribution of sales revenues for this cohort is more skewed than that of the 1980 to 1984 cohort we analysed in previous research.

A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.