Impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs on optimal HPV vaccination strategies.

The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, providing evidence of the fact that marginal vaccination costs increase with coverage. In this study, we use a stochastic agent-based modeling framework to revisit the male vaccination debate in light of these new findings. Within this framework, we assess the impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs of vaccine distribution on optimal immunization strategies against HPV. Focusing on the two scenarios of ongoing and new vaccination programs, we analyze different resource allocation policies and their effects on overall disease burden. Our results suggest that if the costs associated with vaccinating males are relatively close to those associated with vaccinating females, then coverage-dependent, increasing marginal costs may favor vaccination strategies that entail immunization of both genders. In particular, this study emphasizes the necessity for further empirical research on the nature of coverage-dependent vaccination costs.

HPV16 antibodies as risk factors for oropharyngeal cancer and their association with tumor HPV and smoking status.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies (Abs) to the HPV16 proteome increase risk for HPV-associated OPC (HPVOPC). The goal of this study was to investigate the association of a panel of HPV16 Abs with risk for OPC as well as the association of these Abs with tumor HPV and smoking status among patients with OPC. METHODS: IgG Abs to the HPV16 antigens E1, E2, E4, E5, E6, E7, L1, L2 were quantified using a programmable ELISA assay. Sera were obtained from 258 OPC patients at diagnosis and 250 healthy controls. HPV16 tumor status was measured by PCR for 137 cases. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios for the association of HPV16 Abs with risk for OPC. RESULTS: HPV16 E1, E2, E4, E5, E6, E7 and L1-specific IgG levels were elevated in OPC patients compared to healthy controls (p<0.05). After multivariable adjustment, Ab positivity for NE2, CE2, E6, and/or E7 was associated with OPC risk (OR [95% CI], 249.1 [99.3-624.9]). Among patients with OPC, Ab positivity for these antigens was associated with tumor HPV status, especially among never or light smokers (OR [95% CI], 6.5 [2.1-20.1] and OR [95% CI], 17.5 [4.0-77.2], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Antibodies to HPV16 proteins are associated with increased risk for HPVOPC. Among patients with OPC, HPV16 Abs are associated with tumor HPV status, in particular among HPV positive patients with no or little smoking history.

Distribution of HPV genotypes in cervical intraepithelial lesions and cervical cancer in Tanzanian women.

BACKGROUND: Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is associated with uterine cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and invasive cancers (ICC). Approximately 80% of ICC cases are diagnosed in under-developed countries. Vaccine development relies on knowledge of HPV genotypes characteristic of LSIL, HSIL and cancer; however, these genotypes remain poorly characterized in many African countries. To contribute to the characterization of HPV genotypes in Northeastern Tanzania, we recruited 215 women from the Reproductive Health Clinic at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre. Cervical scrapes and biopsies were obtained for cytology and HPV DNA detection. RESULTS: 79 out of 215 (36.7%) enrolled participants tested positive for HPV DNA, with a large proportion being multiple infections (74%). The prevalence of HPV infection increased with lesion grade (14% in controls, 67% in CIN1 cases and 88% in CIN2-3). Among ICC cases, 89% had detectable HPV. Overall, 31 HPV genotypes were detected; the three most common HPV genotypes among ICC were HPV16, 35 and 45. In addition to these genotypes, co-infection with HPV18, 31, 33, 52, 58, 68 and 82 was found in 91% of ICC. Among women with CIN2-3, HPV53, 58 and 84/83 were the most common. HPV35, 45, 53/58/59 were the most common among CIN1 cases. CONCLUSIONS: In women with no evidence of cytological abnormalities, the most prevalent genotypes were HPV58 with HPV16, 35, 52, 66 and 73 occurring equally. Although numerical constraints limit inference, findings that 91% of ICC harbor only a small number of HPV genotypes suggests that prevention efforts including vaccine development or adjuvant screening should focus on these genotypes.

HPV clearance and the neglected role of stochasticity.

Clearance of anogenital and oropharyngeal HPV infections is attributed primarily to a successful adaptive immune response. To date, little attention has been paid to the potential role of stochastic cell dynamics in the time it takes to clear an HPV infection. In this study, we combine mechanistic mathematical models at the cellular level with epidemiological data at the population level to disentangle the respective roles of immune capacity and cell dynamics in the clearing mechanism. Our results suggest that chance-in form of the stochastic dynamics of basal stem cells-plays a critical role in the elimination of HPV-infected cell clones. In particular, we find that in immunocompetent adolescents with cervical HPV infections, the immune response may contribute less than 20% to virus clearance-the rest is taken care of by the stochastic proliferation dynamics in the basal layer. In HIV-negative individuals, the contribution of the immune response may be negligible.