The quantity and quality of worldwide new drug introductions, 1982-2003.

We examined trends in the introduction of new chemical entities (NCEs) worldwide from 1982 through 2003. Although annual introductions of NCEs decreased over time, introductions of high-quality NCEs (that is, global and first-in-class NCEs) increased moderately. Both biotech and orphan products enjoyed tremendous growth, especially for cancer treatment. Country-level analyses for 1993-2003 indicate that U.S. firms overtook their European counterparts in innovative performance or the introduction of first-in-class, biotech, and orphan products. The United States also became the leading market for first launch.

Mechanistic Models of Anti-HIV Microbicide Drug Delivery

A new modality for preventing HIV transmission is emerging in the form of topical microbicides. Some clinical trials have shown some promising results of these methods of protection while other trials have failed to show efficacy. Due to the relatively novel nature of microbicide drug transport, a rigorous, deterministic analysis of that transport can help improve the design of microbicide vehicles and understand results from clinical trials. This type of analysis can aid microbicide product design by helping understand and organize the determinants of drug transport and the potential efficacies of candidate microbicide products.

Microbicide drug transport is modeled as a diffusion process with convection and reaction effects in appropriate compartments. This is applied here to vaginal gels and rings and a rectal enema, all delivering the microbicide drug Tenofovir. Although the focus here is on Tenofovir, the methods established in this dissertation can readily be adapted to other drugs, given knowledge of their physical and chemical properties, such as the diffusion coefficient, partition coefficient, and reaction kinetics. Other dosage forms such as tablets and fiber meshes can also be modeled using the perspective and methods developed here.

The analyses here include convective details of intravaginal flows by both ambient fluid and spreading gels with different rheological properties and applied volumes. These are input to the overall conservation equations for drug mass transport in different compartments. The results are Tenofovir concentration distributions in time and space for a variety of microbicide products and conditions. The Tenofovir concentrations in the vaginal and rectal mucosal stroma are converted, via a coupled reaction equation, to concentrations of Tenofovir diphosphate, which is the active form of the drug that functions as a reverse transcriptase inhibitor against HIV. Key model outputs are related to concentrations measured in experimental pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, e.g. concentrations in biopsies and blood. A new measure of microbicide prophylactic functionality, the Percent Protected, is calculated. This is the time dependent volume of the entire stroma (and thus fraction of host cells therein) in which Tenofovir diphosphate concentrations equal or exceed a target prophylactic value, e.g. an EC50.

Results show the prophylactic potentials of the studied microbicide vehicles against HIV infections. Key design parameters for each are addressed in application of the models. For a vaginal gel, fast spreading at small volume is more effective than slower spreading at high volume. Vaginal rings are shown to be most effective if inserted and retained as close to the fornix as possible. Because of the long half-life of Tenofovir diphosphate, temporary removal of the vaginal ring (after achieving steady state) for up to 24h does not appreciably diminish Percent Protected. However, full steady state (for the entire stromal volume) is not achieved until several days after ring insertion. Delivery of Tenofovir to the rectal mucosa by an enema is dominated by surface area of coated mucosa and whether the interiors of rectal crypts are filled with the enema fluid. For the enema 100% Percent Protected is achieved much more rapidly than for vaginal products, primarily because of the much thinner epithelial layer of the mucosa. For example, 100% Percent Protected can be achieved with a one minute enema application, and 15 minute wait time.

Results of these models have good agreement with experimental pharmacokinetic data, in animals and clinical trials. They also improve upon traditional, empirical PK modeling, and this is illustrated here. Our deterministic approach can inform design of sampling in clinical trials by indicating time periods during which significant changes in drug concentrations occur in different compartments. More fundamentally, the work here helps delineate the determinants of microbicide drug delivery. This information can be the key to improved, rational design of microbicide products and their dosage regimens.

Evaluating intra-articular drug delivery for the treatment of osteoarthritis in a rat model.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative joint disease that can result in joint pain, loss of joint function, and deleterious effects on activity levels and lifestyle habits. Current therapies for OA are largely aimed at symptomatic relief and may have limited effects on the underlying cascade of joint degradation. Local drug delivery strategies may provide for the development of more successful OA treatment outcomes that have potential to reduce local joint inflammation, reduce joint destruction, offer pain relief, and restore patient activity levels and joint function. As increasing interest turns toward intra-articular drug delivery routes, parallel interest has emerged in evaluating drug biodistribution, safety, and efficacy in preclinical models. Rodent models provide major advantages for the development of drug delivery strategies, chiefly because of lower cost, successful replication of human OA-like characteristics, rapid disease development, and small joint volumes that enable use of lower total drug amounts during protocol development. These models, however, also offer the potential to investigate the therapeutic effects of local drug therapy on animal behavior, including pain sensitivity thresholds and locomotion characteristics. Herein, we describe a translational paradigm for the evaluation of an intra-articular drug delivery strategy in a rat OA model. This model, a rat interleukin-1beta overexpression model, offers the ability to evaluate anti-interleukin-1 therapeutics for drug biodistribution, activity, and safety as well as the therapeutic relief of disease symptoms. Once the action against interleukin-1 is confirmed in vivo, the newly developed anti-inflammatory drug can be evaluated for evidence of disease-modifying effects in more complex preclinical models.

Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001ĝ€ "2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997ĝ€ "2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

PKC signaling regulates drug resistance of the fungal pathogen Candida albicans via circuitry comprised of Mkc1, calcineurin, and Hsp90.

Fungal pathogens exploit diverse mechanisms to survive exposure to antifungal drugs. This poses concern given the limited number of clinically useful antifungals and the growing population of immunocompromised individuals vulnerable to life-threatening fungal infection. To identify molecules that abrogate resistance to the most widely deployed class of antifungals, the azoles, we conducted a screen of 1,280 pharmacologically active compounds. Three out of seven hits that abolished azole resistance of a resistant mutant of the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and a clinical isolate of the leading human fungal pathogen Candida albicans were inhibitors of protein kinase C (PKC), which regulates cell wall integrity during growth, morphogenesis, and response to cell wall stress. Pharmacological or genetic impairment of Pkc1 conferred hypersensitivity to multiple drugs that target synthesis of the key cell membrane sterol ergosterol, including azoles, allylamines, and morpholines. Pkc1 enabled survival of cell membrane stress at least in part via the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade in both species, though through distinct downstream effectors. Strikingly, inhibition of Pkc1 phenocopied inhibition of the molecular chaperone Hsp90 or its client protein calcineurin. PKC signaling was required for calcineurin activation in response to drug exposure in S. cerevisiae. In contrast, Pkc1 and calcineurin independently regulate drug resistance via a common target in C. albicans. We identified an additional level of regulatory control in the C. albicans circuitry linking PKC signaling, Hsp90, and calcineurin as genetic reduction of Hsp90 led to depletion of the terminal MAPK, Mkc1. Deletion of C. albicans PKC1 rendered fungistatic ergosterol biosynthesis inhibitors fungicidal and attenuated virulence in a murine model of systemic candidiasis. This work establishes a new role for PKC signaling in drug resistance, novel circuitry through which Hsp90 regulates drug resistance, and that targeting stress response signaling provides a promising strategy for treating life-threatening fungal infections.

Spending on postapproval drug safety.

Withdrawals of high-profile pharmaceuticals have focused attention on post-approval safety surveillance. There have been no systematic assessments of spending on postapproval safety. We surveyed drug manufacturers regarding safety efforts. Mean spending on postapproval safety per company in 2003 was 56 million dollars (0.3 percent of sales). Assuming a constant safety-to-sales ratio, we estimated that total spending on postapproval safety by the top twenty drug manufacturers was 800 million dollars in 2003. We also examined, using regression analysis, the relationship between the number of safety personnel and the number of initial adverse-event reports. This study offers information for the debate on proposed changes to safety surveillance.