Genetic isolation and morphological divergence of Black Sea bottlenose dolphins

The Black Sea is a semi-enclosed body of water that differs from the adjacent Mediterranean Sea in terms of its biodiversity, oceanographical and ecological characteristics. There is growing international concern about pollution in the Black Sea and other anthropogenic threats to its fauna. The bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is one of three species of cetaceans living in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Despite considerable research on bottlenose dolphins elsewhere, the extent of human impacts on the Black Sea populations is unknown. Previous attempts to award special conservation status to Black Sea cetaceans have failed specifically because policy makers have viewed their ecological and evolutionary uniqueness as equivocal. This study assessed divergence between Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean bottlenose dolphins for 26 cranial measurements (n = 75 adult bottlenose dolphin skulls) and mitochondrial DNA (n = 99 individuals). Black Sea bottlenose dolphins are smaller than those in the Mediterranean, and possess a uniquely shaped skull. As in a previous study, we found the Black Sea population to be genetically distinct, with relatively low levels of mtDNA diversity. Population genetic models suggest that Black Sea bottlenose dolphins have so little gene flow with the Mediterranean due to historical isolation that they should be managed separately.

Improved Regression Estimation of a Multivariate Relationship with Population Data on the Bivariate Relationship

Regression coefficients specify the partial effect of a regressor on the dependent variable. Sometimes the bivariate or limited multivariate relationship of that regressor variable with the dependent variable is known from population-level data. We show here that such population- level data can be used to reduce variance and bias about estimates of those regression coefficients from sample survey data. The method of constrained MLE is used to achieve these improvements. Its statistical properties are first described. The method constrains the weighted sum of all the covariate-specific associations (partial effects) of the regressors on the dependent variable to equal the overall association of one or more regressors, where the latter is known exactly from the population data. We refer to those regressors whose bivariate or limited multivariate relationships with the dependent variable are constrained by population data as being ‘‘directly constrained.’’ Our study investigates the improvements in the estimation of directly constrained variables as well as the improvements in the estimation of other regressor variables that may be correlated with the directly constrained variables, and thus ‘‘indirectly constrained’’ by the population data. The example application is to the marital fertility of black versus white women. The difference between white and black women’s rates of marital fertility, available from population-level data, gives the overall association of race with fertility. We show that the constrained MLE technique both provides a far more powerful statistical test of the partial effect of being black and purges the test of a bias that would otherwise distort the estimated magnitude of this effect. We find only trivial reductions, however, in the standard errors of the parameters for indirectly constrained regressors.