Learning to drive: from hazard detection to hazard handling

Hazard perception has been found to correlate with crash involvement, and has thus been suggested as the most likely source of any skill gap between novice and experienced drivers. The most commonly used method for measuring hazard perception is to evaluate the perception-reaction time to filmed traffic events. It can be argued that this method lacks ecological validity and may be of limited value in predicting the actions drivers’ will take to hazards encountered. The first two studies of this thesis compare novice and experienced drivers’ performance on a hazard detection test, requiring discrete button press responses, with their behaviour in a more dynamic driving environment, requiring hazard handling ability. Results indicate that the hazard handling test is more successful at identifying experience-related differences in response time to hazards. Hazard detection test scores were strongly related to performance on a driver theory test, implying that traditional hazard perception tests may be focusing more on declarative knowledge of driving than on the procedural knowledge required to successfully avoid hazards while driving. One in five Irish drivers crash within a year of passing their driving test. This suggests that the current driver training system does not fully prepare drivers for the dangers they will encounter. Thus, the third and fourth studies in this thesis focus on the development of two simulator-based training regimes. In the third study participants receive intensive training on the molar elements of driving i.e. speed and distance evaluation. The fourth study focuses on training higher order situation awareness skills, including perception, comprehension and projection. Results indicate significant improvement in aspects of speed, distance and situation awareness across training days. However, neither training programme leads to significant improvements in hazard handling performance, highlighting the difficulties of applying learning to situations not previously encountered.

Perceptual load affects eyewitness accuracy and susceptibility to leading questions

Load Theory (Lavie, 1995, 2005) states that the level of perceptual load in a task (i.e.,the amount of information involved in processing task-relevant stimuli) determines the efficiency of selective attention. There is evidence that perceptual load affects distractor processing, with increased inattentional blindness under high load. Given that high load can result in individuals failing to report seeing obvious objects, it is conceivable that load may also impair memory for the scene. The current study is the first to assess the effect of perceptual load on eyewitness memory. Across three experiments (two video-based and one in a driving simulator), the effect of perceptual load on eyewitness memory was assessed. The results showed that eyewitnesses were less accurate under high load, in particular for peripheral details. For example, memory for the central character in the video was not affected by load but memory for a witness who passed by the window at the edge of the scene was significantly worse under high load. High load memories were also more open to suggestion, showing increased susceptibility to leading questions. High visual perceptual load also affected recall for auditory information, illustrating a possible cross-modal perceptual load effect on memory accuracy. These results have implications for eyewitness memory researchers and forensic professionals.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.