Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Spatial analysis of egg distribution and geographic changes in the spawning habitat of the Brazilian sardine Sardinella brasiliensis

This paper establishes the spawning habitat of the Brazilian sardine Sardinella brasiliensis and investigates the spatial variability of egg density and its relation with oceanographic conditions in the shelf of the south-east Brazil Bight (SBB). The spawning habitats of S. brasiliensis have been defined in terms of spatial models of egg density, temperature-salinity plots, quotient (Q) analysis and remote sensing data. Quotient curves (Q(C)) were constructed using the geographic distribution of egg density, temperature and salinity from samples collected during nine survey cruises between 1976 and 1993. The interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability was determined using principal component analysis on the SST anomalies (SSTA) estimated from remote sensing data over the period between 1985 and 2007. The spatial pattern of egg occurrences in the SBB indicated that the largest concentration occurred between Paranagua and Sao Sebastiao. Spawning habitat expanded and contracted during the years, fluctuating around Paranagua. In January 1978 and January 1993, eggs were found nearly everywhere along the inner shelf of the SBB, while in January 1988 and 1991 spawning had contracted to their southernmost position. The SSTA maps for the spawning periods showed that in the case of habitat expansion (1993 only) anomalies over the SBB were zero or slightly negative, whereas for the contraction period anomalies were all positive. Sardinella brasiliensis is capable of exploring suitable spawning sites provided by the entrainment of the colder and less-saline South Atlantic Central Water onto the shelf by means of both coastal wind-driven (to the north-east of the SBB) and meander-induced (to the south-west of the SBB) upwelling.

Geoelectrical mapping of contamination in the cemeteries: the case study in Piracicaba, Sao Paulo/Brazil

This paper presents the results of electrical resistivity methods in the area delineation that was potentially contaminated by liquefaction products, which are also called putrefactive liquids in Vila Rezende municipal cemetery, Piracicaba, So Paulo, Brazil. The results indicate a depth of water table between 3.1 and 5.1 m, with two groundwater direction flows, one to the SW and another to the SE. Due to the contamination plumes, which have the same groundwater direction flow, as well the conductive anomalies observed in the geoelectric sections, the contamination suspicions in the area were confirmed. The probable plume to the SE extends beyond the limits of the cemetery. The location of the conductive anomalies and the probable contamination plumes showed that the contamination is linked with the depth of the water table and the burial time. Mapping using the geostatistical method of ordinary kriging applied to the work drew structural characteristics of the regional phenomenon and spatial behavior of the electrical resistivity data, resulting in continued surfaces. Thus, this method has proved to be an important tool for mapping contamination plumes in cemeteries.

Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF THE RAINFALL EROSIVE POTENTIAL IN THE STATE OF MATO GROSSO DO SUL, BRAZIL

Information about rainfall erosivity is important during soil and water conservation planning. Thus, the spatial variability of rainfall erosivity of the state Mato Grosso do Sul was analyzed using ordinary kriging interpolation. For this, three pluviograph stations were used to obtain the regression equations between the erosivity index and the rainfall coefficient EI30. The equations obtained were applied to 109 pluviometric stations, resulting in EI30 values. These values were analyzed from geostatistical technique, which can be divided into: descriptive statistics, adjust to semivariogram, cross-validation process and implementation of ordinary kriging to generate the erosivity map. Highest erosivity values were found in central and northeast regions of the State, while the lowest values were observed in the southern region. In addition, high annual precipitation values not necessarily produce higher erosivity values.

Spatial analysis of leprosy incidence and associated socioeconomic factors

OBJECTIVE: To identify clusters of the major occurrences of leprosy and their associated socioeconomic and demographic factors. METHODS: Cases of leprosy that occurred between 1998 and 2007 in Sao Jose do Rio Preto (southeastern Brazil) were geocodified and the incidence rates were calculated by census tract. A socioeconomic classification score was obtained using principal component analysis of socioeconomic variables. Thematic maps to visualize the spatial distribution of the incidence of leprosy with respect to socioeconomic levels and demographic density were constructed using geostatistics. RESULTS: While the incidence rate for the entire city was 10.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually between 1998 and 2007, the incidence rates of individual census tracts were heterogeneous, with values that ranged from 0 to 26.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Areas with a high leprosy incidence were associated with lower socioeconomic levels. There were identified clusters of leprosy cases, however there was no association between disease incidence and demographic density. There was a disparity between the places where the majority of ill people lived and the location of healthcare services. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis techniques utilized identified the poorer neighborhoods of the city as the areas with the highest risk for the disease. These data show that health departments must prioritize politico-administrative policies to minimize the effects of social inequality and improve the standards of living, hygiene, and education of the population in order to reduce the incidence of leprosy.

Studying the influence of a secondary variable in Collocated Cokriging estimates

In this paper the influence of a secondary variable as a function of the correlation with the primary variable for collocated cokriging is examined. For this study five exhaustive data sets were generated in computer, from which samples with 60 and 104 data points were drawn using the stratified random sampling method. These exhaustive data sets were generated departing from a pair of primary and secondary variables showing a good correlation. Then successive sets were generated by adding an amount of white noise in such a way that the correlation gets poorer. Using these samples, it was possible to find out how primary and secondary information is used to estimate an unsampled location according to the correlation level.

Spatial variability of leaf nutrient contents in a drip irrigated citrus orchard

This study aimed to evaluate the spatial variability of leaf content of macro and micronutrients. The citrus plants orchard with 5 years of age, planted at regular intervals of 8 x 7 m, was managed under drip irrigation. Leaf samples were collected from each plant to be analyzed in the laboratory. Data were analyzed using the software R, version 2.5.1 Copyright (C) 2007, along with geostatistics package GeoR. All contents of macro and micronutrients studied were adjusted to normal distribution and showed spatial dependence.The best-fit models, based on the likelihood, for the macro and micronutrients were the spherical and matern. It is suggest for the macronutrients nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium and sulfur the minimum distances between samples of 37; 58; 29; 63; 46 and 15 m respectively, while for the micronutrients boron, copper, iron, manganese and zinc, the distances suggests are 29; 9; 113; 35 and 14 m, respectively.

Spatial variability of soil fertility and its relationship with seed physiological potential in a soybean production area

The correlation of soil fertility x seed physiological potential is very important in the area of seed technology but results published with that theme are contradictory. For this reason, this study to evaluate the correlations between soil chemical properties and physiological potential of soybean seeds. On georeferenced points, both soil and seeds were sampled for analysis of soil fertility and seed physiological potential. Data were assessed by the following analyses: descriptive statistics; Pearson's linear correlation; and geostatistics. The adjusted parameters of the semivariograms were used to produce maps of spatial distribution for each variable. Organic matter content, Mn and Cu showed significant effects on seed germination. Most variables studied presented moderate to high spatial dependence. Germination and accelerated aging of seeds, and P, Ca, Mg, Mn, Cu and Zn showed a better fit to spherical semivariogram: organic matter, pH and K had a better fit to Gaussian model; and V% and Fe showed a better fit to the linear model. The values for range of spatial dependence varied from 89.9 m for P until 651.4 m for Fe. These values should be considered when new samples are collected for assessing soil fertility in this production area.