9 resultados para Estatistica matematica

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Desde as primeiras décadas do século XX, foi constatada nos currículos dos cursos de formação de professores a existência de uma disciplina cuja constituição, funcionamento e objetivos têm como pressuposto ensinar a ensinar a matemática. Historicamente, a disciplina Metodologia do Ensino de Matemática tem aparecido nos cursos de Licenciatura em Matemática com distintas denominações. Ao longo dessas mudanças, os pressupostos e as características dessa disciplina foram se modificando. Tomando como metodologia de pesquisa a análise documental e a história oral, e como referencial teórico os estudos de André Chervel (1990), este trabalho teve como objetivo compreender o processo histórico de disciplinarização da Metodologia do Ensino de Matemática em cursos de licenciatura em Matemática de instituições públicas de ensino superior do estado de São Paulo (USP, UNICAMP e UNESP-Rio Claro), buscando conhecer a gênese e o desenvolvimento histórico da disciplina, identificando conteúdos e métodos propostos bem como as mudanças pelas quais passou a disciplina.

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In this paper we focus on the application of two mathematical alternative tasks to the teaching and learning of functions with high school students. The tasks were elaborated according to the following methodological approach: (i) Problem Solving and/or mathematics investigation and (ii) a pedagogical proposal, which defends that mathematical knowledge is developed by means of a balance between logic and intuition. We employed a qualitative research approach (characterized as a case study) aimed at analyzing the didactic pedagogical potential of this type of methodology in high school. We found that tasks such as those presented and discussed in this paper provide a more significant learning for the students, allowing a better conceptual understanding, becoming still more powerful when one considers the social-cultural context of the students.

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In this paper, a new family of survival distributions is presented. It is derived by considering that the latent number of failure causes follows a Poisson distribution and the time for these causes to be activated follows an exponential distribution. Three different activation schemes are also considered. Moreover, we propose the inclusion of covariates in the model formulation in order to study their effect on the expected value of the number of causes and on the failure rate function. Inferential procedure based on the maximum likelihood method is discussed and evaluated via simulation. The developed methodology is illustrated on a real data set on ovarian cancer.

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OBJECTIVE: To describe the regional and socioeconomic distribution of household food availability in Brazil. METHODS: Data from the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey on food and beverage acquisition for household consumption, conducted by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), were analyzed. The amounts of foods, recorded during seven consecutive days in the 55,970 sample households, were converted into calories and nutrients. Food quality indicators were constructed and analyzed according to the regional and socioeconomic strata of the Brazilian population. RESULTS: The amount of energy from protein was adequate in all regional and socioeconomic strata. On the other hand, an excess of free sugars and fats was observed in all regions of the country, especially in the Southern and Southeastern regions. The proportion of saturated fats was high in urban areas and consistent with the greater contribution of animal-derived products. Limited availability of fruits and vegetables was found in all regions. An increase in the fat content and reduction in carbohydrate content of the diet were observed with the increase in income. CONCLUSIONS: The negative characteristics of the Brazilian diet observed at the end of the first decade of the 21(st) century indicate the need to prioritize public policies for the promotion of healthy eating.

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Let G be a group such that, for any subgroup H of G, every automorphism of H can be extended to an automorphism of G. Such a group G is said to be of injective type. The finite abelian groups of injective type are precisely the quasi-injective groups. We prove that a finite non-abelian group G of injective type has even order. If, furthermore, G is also quasi-injective, then we prove that G = K x B, with B a quasi-injective abelian group of odd order and either K = Q(8) (the quaternion group of order 8) or K = Dih(A), a dihedral group on a quasi-injective abelian group A of odd order coprime with the order of B. We give a description of the supersoluble finite groups of injective type whose Sylow 2-subgroup are abelian showing that these groups are, in general, not quasi-injective. In particular, the characterisation of such groups is reduced to that of finite 2-groups that are of injective type. We give several restrictions on the latter. We also show that the alternating group A(5) is of injective type but that the binary icosahedral group SL(2, 5) is not.

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In many applications of lifetime data analysis, it is important to perform inferences about the change-point of the hazard function. The change-point could be a maximum for unimodal hazard functions or a minimum for bathtub forms of hazard functions and is usually of great interest in medical or industrial applications. For lifetime distributions where this change-point of the hazard function can be analytically calculated, its maximum likelihood estimator is easily obtained from the invariance properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. From the asymptotical normality of the maximum likelihood estimators, confidence intervals can also be obtained. Considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution for the lifetime data, we have different forms for the hazard function: constant, increasing, unimodal, decreasing or bathtub forms. This model gives great flexibility of fit, but we do not have analytic expressions for the change-point of the hazard function. In this way, we consider the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to get posterior summaries for the change-point of the hazard function considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution.

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We developed a stochastic lattice model to describe the vector-borne disease (like yellow fever or dengue). The model is spatially structured and its dynamical rules take into account the diffusion of vectors. We consider a bipartite lattice, forming a sub-lattice of human and another occupied by mosquitoes. At each site of lattice we associate a stochastic variable that describes the occupation and the health state of a single individual (mosquito or human). The process of disease transmission in the human population follows a similar dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model (SIR), while the disease transmission in the mosquito population has an analogous dynamic of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model (SIS) with mosquitos diffusion. The occurrence of an epidemic is directly related to the conditional probability of occurrence of infected mosquitoes (human) in the presence of susceptible human (mosquitoes) on neighborhood. The probability of diffusion of mosquitoes can facilitate the formation of pairs Susceptible-Infected enabling an increase in the size of the epidemic. Using an asynchronous dynamic update, we study the disease transmission in a population initially formed by susceptible individuals due to the introduction of a single mosquito (human) infected. We find that this model exhibits a continuous phase transition related to the existence or non-existence of an epidemic. By means of mean field approximations and Monte Carlo simulations we investigate the epidemic threshold and the phase diagram in terms of the diffusion probability and the infection probability.

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We apply Stochastic Dynamics method for a differential equations model, proposed by Marc Lipsitch and collaborators (Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 260, 321, 1995), for which the transmission dynamics of parasites occurs from a parent to its offspring (vertical transmission), and by contact with infected host (horizontal transmission). Herpes, Hepatitis and AIDS are examples of diseases for which both horizontal and vertical transmission occur simultaneously during the virus spreading. Understanding the role of each type of transmission in the infection prevalence on a susceptible host population may provide some information about the factors that contribute for the eradication and/or control of those diseases. We present a pair mean-field approximation obtained from the master equation of the model. The pair approximation is formed by the differential equations of the susceptible and infected population densities and the differential equations of pairs that contribute to the former ones. In terms of the model parameters, we obtain the conditions that lead to the disease eradication, and set up the phase diagram based on the local stability analysis of fixed points. We also perform Monte Carlo simulations of the model on complete graphs and Erdös-Rényi graphs in order to investigate the influence of population size and neighborhood on the previous mean-field results; by this way, we also expect to evaluate the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission on the elimination of parasite. Pair Approximation for a Model of Vertical and Horizontal Transmission of Parasites.

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The maintenance of biodiversity is a long standing puzzle in ecology. It is a classical result that if the interactions of the species in an ecosystem are chosen in a random way, then complex ecosystems can't sustain themselves, meaning that the structure of the interactions between the species must be a central component on the preservation of biodiversity and on the stability of ecosystems. The rock-paper-scissors model is one of the paradigmatic models that study how biodiversity is maintained. In this model 3 species dominate each other in a cyclic way (mimicking a trophic cycle), that is, rock dominates scissors, that dominates paper, that dominates rock. In the original version of this model, this dominance obeys a 'Z IND 3' symmetry, in the sense that the strength of dominance is always the same. In this work, we break this symmetry, studying the effects of the addition of an asymmetry parameter. In the usual model, in a two dimensional lattice, the species distribute themselves according to spiral patterns, that can be explained by the complex Landau-Guinzburg equation. With the addition of asymmetry, new spatial patterns appear during the transient and the system either ends in a state with spirals, similar to the ones of the original model, or in a state where unstable spatial patterns dominate or in a state where only one species survives (and biodiversity is lost).