Impacts of climate change and species distribution modelling: future scenarios to endangered species in South Brazil.

Earth climate has changed significantly in the last century and the different models indicate that it will continue to change over the next decades, even if the emission of greenhouse gases stop immediately. These changes have impact on different plant populations, as well as in the actual distribution of several species. As plants, in general, have a smaller capacity of dispersion compared with the animals it is likely that they will suffer the impacts of the climate change more intensively.

Species from the Heliothinae complex (Lepidoptera: noctuidae) in Tucuman, Argentina, an update of geographical distribution of Helicoverpa armigera.

The Heliothinae complex in Argentina encompasses Helicoverpa gelotopoeon (Dyar), Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), Helicoverpa armigera (Hu ̈ bner), and Chloridea virescens (Fabricius). In Tucum an, the native species H. gelotopoeon is one of the most voracious soybean pests and also affects cotton and chickpea, even more in soybean-chickpea succession cropping systems. Differentiation of the Heliothinae complex in the egg, larva, and pupa stages is difficult. Therefore, the observation of the adult wing pattern design and male genitalia is useful to differentiate species. The objective of this study was to identify the species of the Heliothinae complex, determine population fluctuations of the Heliothinae complex in soybean and chickpea crops using male moths collected in pheromone traps in Tucuman province, and update the geographical distribution of H. armigera in Argentina. The species found were H. gelotopoeon, H. armigera, H. zea , and C. virescens. Regardless of province, county, crop, and year, the predominant species was H. gelotopoeon . Considering the population dynamics of H. gelotopoeon and H. armigera in chickpea and soybean crops, H. gelotopoeon was the most abundant species in both crops, in all years sampled, and the differences registered were significant. On the other hand, according to the Sistema Nacional Argentino de Vigilancia y Monitoreo de Plagas (SINAVIMO) database and our collections, H. armigera was recorded in eight provinces and 20 counties of Argentina, and its larvae were found on soybean, chickpea, sunflower crops and spiny plumeless thistle (Carduus acanthoides). This is the first report of H. armigera in sunflower and spiny plumeless thistle in Argentina.

Impacts of climate change and species distribution modelling: future scenarios to endangered species in South Brazil.

2016

Changes in the spatial distribution of tree species in a terra firme rain forest in Brazilian Amazonia after logging.

The objective of this paper was to determine changes in the spatial distribution of tree species in a logged compared to an unlogged forest of the Tapajos National Forest in the municipality of Belterra, State of Para, Brazil, over an eight-year period. The distribution pattern was determined for trees> 5 cm dbh and, also, for trees > 30 cm dbh. The relationship (a quadrate method) discussed by McGinnis was selected to be used in this study. Forty-seven percent of species with trees > 5 cm dbh showed clumped distribution in the studied forests. Geissospermwn sericeunz Benth & Hook., Minquartia guianensis Aubl., Poureria bilocularis (H. Winkler) Bachni, Protium guacayantan Cuatrec, Sclerolobium chrysophyllunz Poepp. et Endl. and the Sapotaceae family (9 species) occurred in clumps of small trees (5 cm 5 dbh < 30 cm) and big trees (dbh > 30 cm) in both the logged and undisturbed forest. Trees in all sizes of these species certainly have aggregation characteristics in different light condition's during the whole growth-cycle. Only Sclerolobium cizzysophylltan out of fourteen species that occurred aggregated in all forest conditions was light demanding. The shade-tolerant Lecythis lurida (Miers) Mori and Manilkara huberi (Ducke) Stand!. showed also aggregated distribution for small and big trees in the unlogged forest. An aggregated distribution is not always directly correlated to abundance, considering that most of the clumped species had less than seven trees per hectare.

Patterns of Cactaceae species distribution in a protected area in the semiarid caatinga biome of North-Eastern Brazil.

2016

Spatial scale effects of sampling on the interpolation of species distribution models in the southwestern Amazon.

Knowledge of the geographical distribution of timber tree species in the Amazon is still scarce. This is especially true at the local level, thereby limiting natural resource management actions. Forest inventories are key sources of information on the occurrence of such species. However, areas with approved forest management plans are mostly located near access roads and the main industrial centers. The present study aimed to assess the spatial scale effects of forest inventories used as sources of occurrence data in the interpolation of potential species distribution models. The occurrence data of a group of six forest tree species were divided into four geographical areas during the modeling process. Several sampling schemes were then tested applying the maximum entropy algorithm, using the following predictor variables: elevation, slope, exposure, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). The results revealed that using occurrence data from only one geographical area with unique environmental characteristics increased both model overfitting to input data and omission error rates. The use of a diagonal systematic sampling scheme and lower threshold values led to improved model performance. Forest inventories may be used to predict areas with a high probability of species occurrence, provided they are located in forest management plan regions representative of the environmental range of the model projection area.