Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investi gating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones), rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably) a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

Trust and strong ties in the selection and evaluation of business advisors by small firms

Principal Topic A small firm is unlikely to possess internally the full range of knowledge and skills that it requires or could benefit from for the development of its business. The ability to acquire suitable external expertise - defined as knowledge or competence that is rare in the firm and acquired from the outside - when needed thus becomes a competitive factor in itself. Access to external expertise enables the firm to focus on its core competencies and removes the necessity to internalize every skill and competence. However, research on how small firms access external expertise is still scarce. The present study contributes to this under-developed discussion by analysing the role of trust and strong ties in the small firm's selection and evaluation of sources of external expertise (henceforth referred to as the 'business advisor' or 'advisor'). Granovetter (1973, 1361) defines the strength of a network tie as 'a (probably linear) combination of the amount of time, the emotional intensity, the intimacy (mutual confiding) and the reciprocal services which characterize the tie'. Strong ties in the context of the present investigation refer to sources of external expertise who are well known to the owner-manager, and who may be either informal (e.g., family, friends) or professional advisors (e.g., consultants, enterprise support officers, accountants or solicitors). Previous research has suggested that strong and weak ties have different fortes and the choice of business advisors could thus be critical to business performance) While previous research results suggest that small businesses favour previously well known business advisors, prior studies have also pointed out that an excessive reliance on a network of well known actors might hamper business development, as the range of expertise available through strong ties is limited. But are owner-managers of small businesses aware of this limitation and does it matter to them? Or does working with a well-known advisor compensate for it? Hence, our research model first examines the impact of the strength of tie on the business advisor's perceived performance. Next, we ask what encourages a small business owner-manager to seek advice from a strong tie. A recent exploratory study by Welter and Kautonen (2005) drew attention to the central role of trust in this context. However, while their study found support for the general proposition that trust plays an important role in the choice of advisors, how trust and its different dimensions actually affect this choice remained ambiguous. The present paper develops this discussion by considering the impact of the different dimensions of perceived trustworthiness, defined as benevolence, integrity and ability, on the strength of tie. Further, we suggest that the dimensions of perceived trustworthiness relevant in the choice of a strong tie vary between professional and informal advisors. Methodology/Key Propositions Our propositions are examined empirically based on survey data comprising 153 Finnish small businesses. The data are analysed utilizing the partial least squares (PLS) approach to structural equation modelling with SmartPLS 2.0. Being non-parametric, the PLS algorithm is particularly well-suited to analysing small datasets with non-normally distributed variables. Results and Implications The path model shows that the stronger the tie, the more positively the advisor's performance is perceived. Hypothesis 1, that strong ties will be associated with higher perceptions of performance is clearly supported. Benevolence is clearly the most significant predictor of the choice of a strong tie for external expertise. While ability also reaches a moderate level of statistical significance, integrity does not have a statistically significant impact on the choice of a strong tie. Hence, we found support for two out of three independent variables included in Hypothesis 2. Path coefficients differed between the professional and informal advisor subsamples. The results of the exploratory group comparison show that Hypothesis 3a regarding ability being associated with strong ties more pronouncedly when choosing a professional advisor was not supported. Hypothesis 3b arguing that benevolence is more strongly associated with strong ties in the context of choosing an informal advisor received some support because the path coefficient in the informal advisor subsample was much larger than in the professional advisor subsample. Hypothesis 3c postulating that integrity would be more strongly associated with strong ties in the choice of a professional advisor was supported. Integrity is the most important dimension of trustworthiness in this context. However, integrity is of no concern, or even negative, when using strong ties to choose an informal advisor. The findings of this study have practical relevance to the enterprise support community. First of all, given that the strength of tie has a significant positive impact on the advisor's perceived performance, this implies that small business owners appreciate working with advisors in long-term relationships. Therefore, advisors are well advised to invest into relationship building and maintenance in their work with small firms. Secondly, the results show that, especially in the context of professional advisors, the advisor's perceived integrity and benevolence weigh more than ability. This again emphasizes the need to invest time and effort into building a personal relationship with the owner-manager, rather than merely maintaining a professional image and credentials. Finally, this study demonstrates that the dimensions of perceived trustworthiness are orthogonal with different effects on the strength of tie and ultimately perceived performance. This means that entrepreneurs and advisors should consider the specific dimensions of ability, benevolence and integrity, rather than rely on general perceptions of trustworthiness in their advice relationships.

Analysing preservice teachers' potential for implementing engineering education in the middle school

Engineering is pivotal to any country's development. Yet there are insufficient engineers to take up available positions in many countries, including Australia (Engineers Australia, 2008). Engineering education is limited in Australia at the primary, middle and high school levels. One of the starting points for addressing this shortfall lies in preservice teacher education. This study explores second-year preservice teachers' potential to teach engineering in middle school, following their engagement with engineering concepts in their science curriculum unit and their teaching of engineering activities to Year 7 students. Using a literature-based pretest-posttest survey, items were categorised into four constructs (ie. personal professional attributes, student motivation, pedagogical knowledge and fused curricula). Results indicated that the preservice teachers' responses had not changed for instilling positive attitudes (88%) and accepting advice from colleagues (94%). However, there was statistical significance with 9 of the 25 survey items (p<0.05) after the preservice teachers' involvement in engineering activities. Fusing engineering education with other subjects, such as mathematics and science, is an essential first step in promoting preservice teachers' potential to implement engineering education in the middle school.

New insights into appetite, inflammation and the use of fish oil in hemodialysis patients

Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is commonly seen in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The condition is characterised by chronic, systemic low-grade inflammation which affects nutritional status by a variety of mechanisms including reducing appetite and food intake and increasing muscle catabolism. PEW is linked with co-morbidities such as cardiovascular disease, and is associated with lower quality of life, increased hospitalisations and a 6-fold increase in risk of death1. Significant gender differences have been found in the severity and effects of several markers of PEW. There have been limited studies testing the ability of anti-inflammatory agents or nutritional interventions to reduce the effects of PEW in dialysis patients. This thesis makes a significant contribution to the understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It advances understanding of measurement techniques for two of the key components, appetite and inflammation, and explores the effect of fish oil, an anti-inflammatory agent, on markers of PEW in dialysis patients. The first part of the thesis consists of two methodological studies conducted using baseline data. The first study aims to validate retrospective ratings of hunger, desire to eat and fullness on visual analog scales (VAS) (paper and pen and electronic) as a new method of measuring appetite in dialysis patients. The second methodological study aims to assess the ability of a variety of methods available in routine practice to detect the presence of inflammation. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the effect of 12 weeks supplementation with 2g per day of Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA), a longchain fatty acid found in fish oil, on markers of PEW. A combination of biomarkers and psychomarkers of appetite and inflammation are the main outcomes being explored, with nutritional status, dietary intake and quality of life included as secondary outcomes. A lead in phase of 3 months prior to baseline was used so that each person acts as their own historical control. The study also examines whether there are gender differences in response to the treatment. Being an exploratory study, an important part of the work is to test the feasibility of the intervention, thus the level of adherence and factors associated with adherence are also presented. The studies were conducted at the hemodialysis unit of the Wesley Hospital. Participants met the following criteria: adult, stage 5 CKD on hemodialysis for at least 3 months, not expected to receive a transplant or switch to another dialysis modality during the study, absence of intellectual impairment or mental illness impairing ability to follow instructions or complete the intervention. A range of intermediate, clinical and patient-centred outcome measures were collected at baseline and 12 weeks. Inflammation was measured using five biomarkers: c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL6), intercellular adhesion molecule (sICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM-1) and white cell count (WCC). Subjective appetite was measured using the first question from the Appetite and Dietary Assessment (ADAT) tool and VAS for measurements of hunger, desire to eat and fullness. A novel feature of the study was the assessment of the appetite peptides leptin, ghrelin and peptide YY as biomarkers of appetite. Nutritional status/inflammation was assessed using the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score (MIS) and the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Dietary intake was measured using 3-day records. Quality of life was measured using the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Form version 1.3 (KDQOL-SF™ v1.3 © RAND University), which combines the Short-Form 36 (SF36) with a kidney-disease specific module2. A smaller range of these variables was available for analysis during the control phase (CRP, ADAT, dietary intake and nutritional status). Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS version 14 (SPSS Inc, Chicago IL, USA). Analysis of the first part of the thesis involved descriptive and bivariate statistics, as well as Bland-Altman plots to assess agreement between methods, and sensitivity analysis/ROC curves to test the ability of methods to predict the presence of inflammation. The unadjusted (paired ttests) and adjusted (linear mixed model) change over time is presented for the main outcome variables of inflammation and appetite. Results are shown for the whole group followed by analyses according to gender and adherence to treatment. Due to the exploratory nature of the study, trends and clinical significance were considered as important as statistical significance. Twenty-eight patients (mean age 61±17y, 50% male, dialysis vintage 19.5 (4- 101) months) underwent baseline assessment. Seven out of 28 patients (25%) reported sub-optimal appetite (self-reported as fair, poor or very poor) despite all being well nourished (100% SGA A). Using the VAS, ratings of hunger, but not desire to eat or fullness, were significantly (p<0.05) associated with a range of relevant clinical variables including age (r=-0.376), comorbidities (r=-0.380) nutritional status (PG-SGA score, r=-0.451), inflammatory markers (CRP r=-0.383; sICAM-1 r=-0.387) and seven domains of quality of life. Patients expressed a preference for the paper and pen method of administering VAS. None of the tools (appetite, MIS, PG-SGA, albumin or iron) showed an acceptable ability to detect patients who are inflamed. It is recommended that CRP should be tested more frequently as a matter of course rather than seeking alternative methods of measuring inflammation. 27 patients completed the 12 week intervention. 20 patients were considered adherent based on changes in % plasma EPA, which rose from 1.3 (0.94)% to 5.2 (1.1)%, p<0.001, in this group. The major barriers to adherence were forgetting to take the tablets as well as their size. At 12 weeks, inflammatory markers remained steady apart from the white cell count which decreased (7.6(2.5) vs 7.0(2.2) x109/L, p=0.058) and sVCAM-1 which increased (1685(654) vs 2249(925) ng/mL, p=0.001). Subjective appetite using VAS increased (51mm to 57mm, +12%) and there was a trend towards reduction in peptide YY (660(31) vs 600(30) pg/mL, p=0.078). There were some gender differences apparent, with the following adjusted change between baseline and week 12: CRP (males -3% vs females +17%, p=0.19), IL6 (males +17% vs females +48%, p=0.77), sICAM-1 (males -5% vs females +11%, p=0.07), sVCAM-1 (males +54% vs females +19%, p=0.08) and hunger ratings (males 20% vs females -5%, p=0.18). On balance, males experienced a maintainence or reduction in three inflammatory markers and an improvement in hunger ratings, and therefore appeared to have responded better to the intervention. Compared to those who didn’t adhere, adherent patients maintained weight (mean(SE) change: +0.5(1.6) vs - 0.8(1.2) kg, p=0.052) and fat-free mass (-0.1 (1.6) vs -1.8 (1.8) kg, p=0.045). There was no difference in change between the intervention and control phase for CRP, appetite, nutritional status or dietary intake. The thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base for understanding of PEW in dialysis patients. It has advanced knowledge of methods of assessing inflammation and appetite. Retrospective ratings of hunger on a VAS appear to be a valid method of assessing appetite although samples which include patients with very poor appetite are required to confirm this. Supplementation with fish oil appeared to improve subjective appetite and dampen the inflammatory response. The effectiveness of the intervention is influenced by gender and adherence. Males appear to be more responsive to the primary outcome variables than females, and the quality of response is improved with better adherence. These results provide evidence to support future interventions aimed at reducing the effects of PEW in dialysis patients.

Serum polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) in pooled serum are higher in children (2-5 years of age) than in infants and adults

Background: Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are used as flame retardants in many products and have been detected in human samples worldwide. Limited data show that concentrations are elevated in young children. Objectives: We investigated the association between PBDEs and age with an emphasis on young children from Australia in 2006–2007. Methods: We collected human blood serum samples (n = 2,420), which we stratified by age and sex and pooled for analysis of PBDEs. Results: The sum of BDE-47, -99, -100, and -153 concentrations (Σ4PBDE) increased from 0–0.5 years (mean ± SD, 14 ± 3.4 ng/g lipid) to peak at 2.6–3 years (51 ± 36 ng/g lipid; p < 0.001) and then decreased until 31–45 years (9.9 ± 1.6 ng/g lipid). We observed no further significant decrease among ages 31–45, 45–60 (p = 0.964), or > 60 years (p = 0.894). The mean Σ4PBDE concentration in cord blood (24 ± 14 ng/g lipid) did not differ significantly from that in adult serum at ages 15–30 (p = 0.198) or 31–45 years (p = 0.140). We found no temporal trend when we compared the present results with Australian PBDE data from 2002–2005. PBDE concentrations were higher in males than in females; however, this difference reached statistical significance only for BDE-153 (p = 0.05). Conclusions: The observed peak concentration at 2.6–3 years of age is later than the period when breast-feeding is typically ceased. This suggests that in addition to the exposure via human milk, young children have higher exposure to these chemicals and/or a lower capacity to eliminate them. Key words: Australia, children, cord blood, human blood serum, PBDEs, polybrominated diphenyl ethers. Environ Health Perspect 117:1461–1465 (2009). doi:10.1289/ehp.0900596

Maintaining nutrition in aged care residents with a train-the-trainer intervention and nutrition coordinator

Objective: To investigate the impact of a train-the-trainer program on the nutritional status of older people in residential care. ----- Design: Prospective, randomized controlled study. Setting: Eight nursing homes in Southeast Queensland, Australia. ----- Participants: A total of 352 residents participated - 245 were female (69.6%). The mean age was 84.2 years and the majority (79.4%) were classified as high dependency. ----- Intervention: Residents from four nursing homes were randomly selected for a nutrition education program coordinated by Nutrition Coordinators. Residents from the other four nursing homes (control) received usual care. ----- Measurements: The Subjective Global Assessment was used to determine prevalence of malnutrition at baseline and six months post intervention. The Resident Classification Scale measured functional dependency. Prescribed diet, fluids, oral hygiene status and allied health referrals were obtained by chart audit. ----- Results: Approximately half the residents were well nourished with 49.4% moderately or severely malnourished. Residents in the intervention group were more likely to maintain or improve their nutritional status compared with the control group who were more likely to experience a deterioration (P=0.027). The odds of the control group being malnourished post test was 1.6 times more likely compared with the intervention group but this did not reach statistical significance (P=0.1). ----- Conclusion: The results of the study encourage the implementation of a Nutrition Coordinator program to maintain nutritional status of aged care residents. Nevertheless, malnutrition rates continue to be unacceptably high. In a rapidly aging society, the aged care sector needs to confront malnutrition and provide better resources for staff to take measures against this problem.

Energy polarization and popular representation: Evidence from the Russian Duma

In this article we introduce the term “energy polarization” to explain the politics of energy market reform in the Russian Duma. Our model tests the impact of regional energy production, party cohesion and ideology, and electoral mandate on the energy policy decisions of the Duma deputies (oil, gas, and electricity bills and resolution proposals) between 1994 and 2003. We find a strong divide between Single-Member District (SMD) and Proportional Representation (PR) deputies High statistical significance of gas production is demonstrated throughout the three Duma terms and shows Gazprom's key position in the post-Soviet Russian economy. Oil production is variably significant in the two first Dumas, when the main legislative debates on oil privatization occur. There is no constant left–right continuum, which is consistent with the deputies' proclaimed party ideology. The pro- and anti-reform poles observed in our Poole-based single dimensional scale are not necessarily connected with liberal and state-oriented regulatory policies, respectively. Party switching is a solid indicator of Russia's polarized legislative dynamics when it comes to energy sector reform.

Effect of surgical approach on bone vascularisation, fracture and soft tissue healing : comparison of less invasive to open approach

Over the past ten years, minimally invasive plate osteosynthesis (MIPO) for the fixation of long bone fractures has become a clinically accepted method with good outcomes, when compared to the conventional open surgical approach (open reduction internal fixation, ORIF). However, while MIPO offers some advantages over ORIF, it also has some significant drawbacks, such as a more demanding surgical technique and increased radiation exposure. No clinical or experimental study to date has shown a difference between the healing outcomes in fractures treated with the two surgical approaches. Therefore, a novel, standardised severe trauma model in sheep has been developed and validated in this project to examine the effect of the two surgical approaches on soft tissue and fracture healing. Twenty four sheep were subjected to severe soft tissue damage and a complex distal femur fracture. The fractures were initially stabilised with an external fixator. After five days of soft tissue recovery, internal fixation with a plate was applied, randomised to either MIPO or ORIF. Within the first fourteen days, the soft tissue damage was monitored locally with a compartment pressure sensor and systemically by blood tests. The fracture progress was assessed fortnightly by x-rays. The sheep were sacrificed in two groups after four and eight weeks, and CT scans and mechanical testing performed. Soft tissue monitoring showed significantly higher postoperative Creatine Kinase and Lactate Dehydrogenase values in the ORIF group compared to MIPO. After four weeks, the torsional stiffness was significantly higher in the MIPO group (p=0.018) compared to the ORIF group. The torsional strength also showed increased values for the MIPO technique (p=0.11). The measured total mineralised callus volumes were slightly higher in the ORIF group. However, a newly developed morphological callus bridging score showed significantly higher values for the MIPO technique (p=0.007), with a high correlation to the mechanical properties (R2=0.79). After eight weeks, the same trends continued, but without statistical significance. In summary, this clinically relevant study, using the newly developed severe trauma model in sheep, clearly demonstrates that the minimally invasive technique minimises additional soft tissue damage and improves fracture healing in the early stage compared to the open surgical approach method.

A pilot study assessing the feasibility of a home-based progressive resistance exercise program and trend toward healing rates for patients with venous leg ulcers

Venous leg ulceration is a serious condition affecting 1 – 3% of the population. Decline in the function of the calf muscle pump is correlated with venous ulceration. Many previous studies have reported an improvement in the function of the calf muscle pump, endurance of the calf muscle and increased range of ankle motion after structured exercise programs. However, there is a paucity of published research that assesses if these improvements result in an improvement in the healing rates of venous ulcers. The primary purpose of this pilot study was to establish the feasibility of a homebased progressive resistance exercise program and examine if there was any clinical significance or trend toward healing. The secondary aims were to examine the benefit of a home-based progressive resistance exercise program on calf muscle pump function and physical parameters. The methodology used was a randomised controlled trial where eleven participants were randomised into an intervention (n = 6) or control group (n = 5). Participants who were randomised to receive a 12-week home-based progressive resistance exercise program were instructed through weekly face-to-face consultations during their wound clinic appointment by the author. Control group participants received standard wound care and compression therapy. Changes in ulcer parameters were measured fortnightly at the clinic (number healed at 12 weeks, percentage change in area and pressure ulcer score healing score). An air plethysmography test was performed at baseline and following the 12 weeks of training to determine changes in calf muscle pump function. Functional measures included maximum number of heel raises (endurance), maximal isometric plantar flexion (strength) and range of ankle motion (ROAM); these tests were conducted at baseline, week 6 and week 12. The sample for the study was drawn from the Princess Alexandra Hospital in Brisbane, Australia. Participants with venous leg ulceration who met the inclusion criteria were recruited. The participants were screened via duplex scanning and ankle brachial pressure index (ABPI) to ensure they did not have any arterial complications. Participants were excluded if there was evidence of cellulitis. Demographic data were obtained from each participant and details regarding medical history, quality of life and geriatric depression scores were collected at baseline. Both the intervention and control group were required to complete a weekly exercise diary to monitor activity levels between groups. To test for the effect of the intervention over time, a repeated measures analysis of variance was conducted on the major outcome variables. Group (intervention versus control) was the between subject factor and time (baseline, week 6, week 12) was the within subject or repeated measures factor. Due to the small sample size, further tests were conducted to check the assumptions of the statistical test to be used. The results showed that Mauchly.s Test, the Sphericity assumptions of repeated measures for ANOVA were met. Further tests of homogeneity of variance assumptions also confirmed that this assumption was met. Data analysis was conducted using the software package SPSS for Windows Release 17.0. The pilot study proved feasible with all of the intervention (n=6) participants continuing with the resistance program for the 12 week duration and no deleterious effects noted. Clinical significance was observed in the intervention group with a 32% greater change in ulcer size (p= 0.26) than the control group, and a 10% (p = 0.74) greater difference between the numbers healed compared to the control group. Statistical significance was observed for the ejection fraction (p = 0.05), residual volume fraction (p = 0.04) and ROAM (p = 0.01), which all improved significantly in the intervention group over time. These results are encouraging, nevertheless, further investigations seem warranted to examine the effect exercise has on the healing rates of venous leg ulcers, with a multistudy site, larger sample size and longer follow up period.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

Contribution of take-out food consumption to socioeconomic differences in fruit and vegetable intake : a mediation analysis

Lower fruit and vegetable intake among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups has been well documented, and may be a consequence of a higher consumption of take-out foods. This study examined whether, and to what extent, take-out food consumption mediated (explained) the association between socioeconomic position and fruit and vegetable intake. A cross-sectional postal survey was conducted among 1500 randomly selected adults aged 25–64 years in Brisbane, Australia in 2009 (response rate = 63.7%, N = 903). A food frequency questionnaire assessed usual daily servings of fruits and vegetables (0 to 6), overall take-out consumption (times/week) and the consumption of 22 specific take-out items (never to ≥once/day). These specific take-out items were grouped into “less healthy” and “healthy” choices and indices were created for each type of choice (0 to 100). Socioeconomic position was ascertained by education. The analyses were performed using linear regression, and a bootstrap re-sampling approach estimated the statistical significance of the mediated effects. Mean daily serves of fruits and vegetables was 1.89 (SD 1.05) and 2.47 (SD 1.12) respectively. The least educated group were more likely to consume fewer serves of fruit (B= –0.39, p<0.001) and vegetables (B= –0.43, p<0.001) compared with the highest educated. The consumption of “less healthy” take-out food partly explained (mediated) education differences in fruit and vegetable intake; however, no mediating effects were observed for overall and “healthy” take-out consumption. Regular consumption of “less healthy” take-out items may contribute to socioeconomic differences in fruit and vegetable intake, possibly by displacing these foods.

Comparison of intraocular pressure measurement between rebound, non-contact and Goldmann applanation tonometry in treated glaucoma patients

Background: To compare the intraocular pressure readings obtained with the iCare rebound tonometer and the 7CR non-contact tonometer with those measured by Goldmann applanation tonometry in treated glaucoma patients. Design: A prospective, cross sectional study was conducted in a private tertiary glaucoma clinic. Participants: 109 (54M:55F) patients including only eyes under medical treatment for glaucoma. Methods: Measurement by Goldmann applanation tonometry, iCare rebound tonometry and 7CR non-contact tonometry. Main Outcome Measures: Intraocular pressure. Results: There were strong correlations between the intraocular pressure measurements obtained with Goldmann and both the rebound and non-contact tonometers (Spearman r values ≥ 0.79, p < 0.001). However, there were small, statistically significant differences between the average readings for each tonometer. For the rebound tonometer, the mean intraocular pressure was slightly higher compared to the Goldmann applanation tonometer in the right eyes (p = 0.02), and similar in the left eyes (p = 0.93) however these differences did not reach statistical significance. The Goldmann correlated measurements from the noncontact tonometer were lower than the average Goldmann reading for both right (p < 0.001) and left (p > 0.01) eyes. The corneal compensated measurements from the non-contact tonometer were significantly higher compared to the other tonometers (p ≤ 0.001). Conclusions: The iCare rebound tonometer and the 7CR non-contact tonometer measure IOP in fundamentally different ways to the Goldmann applanation tonometer. The resulting IOP values vary between the instruments and will need to be considered when comparing clinical versus home acquired measurements.

Predictive factors of contact lens case contamination

PURPOSE: To examine the relationship between contact lens (CL) case contamination and various potential predictive factors. METHODS: 74 subjects were fitted with lotrafilcon B (CIBA Vision) CLs on a daily wear basis for 1 month. Subjects were randomly assigned one of two polyhexamethylene biguanide (PHMB) preserved disinfecting solutions with the corresponding regular lens case. Clinical evaluations were conducted at lens delivery and after 1 month, when cases were collected for microbial culture. A CL care non-compliance score was determined through administration of a questionnaire and the volume of solution used was calculated for each subject. Data was examined using backward stepwise binary logistic regression. RESULTS: 68% of cases were contaminated. 35% were moderately or heavily contaminated and 36% contained gram-negative bacteria. Case contamination was significantly associated with subjective dryness symptoms (OR 4.22, CI 1.37–13.01) (P<0.05). There was no association between contamination and subject age, ethnicity, gender, average wearing time, amount of solution used, non-compliance score, CL power and subjective redness (P>0.05). The effect of lens care system on case contamination approached significance (P=0.07). Failure to rinse the case with disinfecting solution following CL insertion (OR 2.51, CI 0.52–12.09) and not air drying the case (OR 2.31, CI 0.39–13.35) were positively correlated with contamination; however, did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that case contamination may influence subjective comfort. It is difficult to predict the development of case contamination from a variety of clinical factors. The efficacy of CL solutions, bacterial resistance to disinfection and biofilm formation are likely to play a role. Further evaluation of these factors will improve our understanding of the development of case contamination and its clinical impact.

Determinants of rapid weight gain during infancy: Baseline results from the NOURISH randomised controlled trial.

Background: Rapid weight gain in infancy is an important predictor of obesity in later childhood. Our aim was to determine which modifiable variables are associated with rapid weight gain in early life. Methods: Subjects were healthy infants enrolled in NOURISH, a randomised, controlled trial evaluating an intervention to promote positive early feeding practices. This analysis used the birth and baseline data for NOURISH. Birthweight was collected from hospital records and infants were also weighed at baseline assessment when they were aged 4-7 months and before randomisation. Infant feeding practices and demographic variables were collected from the mother using a self administered questionnaire. Rapid weight gain was defined as an increase in weight-for-age Z-score (using WHO standards) above 0.67 SD from birth to baseline assessment, which is interpreted clinically as crossing centile lines on a growth chart. Variables associated with rapid weight gain were evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model. Results: Complete data were available for 612 infants (88% of the total sample recruited) with a mean (SD) age of 4.3 (1.0) months at baseline assessment. After adjusting for mother's age, smoking in pregnancy, BMI, and education and infant birthweight, age, gender and introduction of solid foods, the only two modifiable factors associated with rapid weight gain to attain statistical significance were formula feeding [OR=1.72 (95%CI 1.01-2.94), P= 0.047] and feeding on schedule [OR=2.29 (95%CI 1.14-4.61), P=0.020]. Male gender and lower birthweight were non-modifiable factors associated with rapid weight gain. Conclusions: This analysis supports the contention that there is an association between formula feeding, feeding to schedule and weight gain in the first months of life. Mechanisms may include the actual content of formula milk (e.g. higher protein intake) or differences in feeding styles, such as feeding to schedule, which increase the risk of overfeeding. Trial Registration: Australian Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12608000056392

Possible genetic predisposition to lymphedema after breast cancer

Background: Known risk factors for secondary lymphedema only partially explain who develops lymphedema following cancer, suggesting that inherited genetic susceptibility may influence risk. Moreover, identification of molecular signatures could facilitate lymphedema risk prediction prior to surgery or lead to effective drug therapies for prevention or treatment. Recent advances in the molecular biology underlying development of the lymphatic system and related congenital disorders implicate a number of potential candidate genes to explore in relation to secondary lymphedema. Methods and Results: We undertook a nested case-control study, with participants who had developed lymphedema after surgical intervention within the first 18 months of their breast cancer diagnosis serving as cases (n=22) and those without lymphedema serving as controls (n=98), identified from a prospective, population-based, cohort study in Queensland, Australia. TagSNPs that covered all known genetic variation in the genes SOX18, VEGFC, VEGFD, VEGFR2, VEGFR3, RORC, FOXC2, LYVE1, ADM and PROX1 were selected for genotyping. Multiple SNPs within three receptor genes, VEGFR2, VEGFR3 and RORC, were associated with lymphedema defined by statistical significance (p<0.05) or extreme risk estimates (OR<0.5 or >2.0). Conclusions: These provocative, albeit preliminary, findings regarding possible genetic predisposition to secondary lymphedema following breast cancer treatment warrant further attention for potential replication using larger datasets.