Modeling the impact of potential vaccines on epidemics of sexually transmitted chlamydia trachomatis infection

Background. We investigated the likely impact of vaccines on the prevalence of and morbidity due to Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) infections in heterosexual populations. Methods.An individual‐based mathematical model of chlamydia transmission was developed and linked to the infection course in chlamydia‐infected individuals. The model describes the impact of a vaccine through its effect on the chlamydial load required to infect susceptible individuals (the “critical load”), the load in infected individuals, and their subsequent infectiousness. The model was calibrated using behavioral, biological, and clinical data. Results.A fully protective chlamydia vaccine administered before sexual debut can theoretically eliminate chlamydia epidemics within 20 years. Partially effective vaccines can still greatly reduce the incidence of chlamydia infection. Vaccines should aim primarily to increase the critical load in susceptible individuals and secondarily to decrease the peak load and/or the duration of infection in vaccinated individuals who become infected. Vaccinating both sexes has a beneficial impact on chlamydia‐related morbidity, but targeting women is more effective than targeting men. Conclusions.Our findings can be used in laboratory settings to evaluate vaccine candidates in animal models, by regulatory bodies in the promotion of candidates for clinical trials, and by public health authorities in deciding on optimal intervention strategies.

The new epidemics

In developed countries we once thought that the scourge of infectious diseases was tamed. Antibiotics were controlling infection in individual patients, vaccines were preventing illness and great faith was placed in the capacity of science to confound the most cunning organism. However, things have changed and in the new millennium we are confronting a host of challenges to public health from infectious diseases. Epidemics mean an excess of cases in the community from that normally expected or the appearance of a new infection (Webber ####, 22) Chapter 11 outlined the background to infectious diseases and the individual strategies directed towards the control and management of infectious diseases. The aim of this chapter is to outline the impact that infectious diseases have on population health, to identify the risks of major outbreaks and to identify the strategies required to reduce the risk and to manage any possible outbreak.

Synchrony of planting and proportions of susceptible varieties affect rice tungro disease epidemics in the Philippines.

Surveys were conducted in the Philippines from 1995 to 1997 to examine relationships between production environment variables (agroecosystem, synchrony of planting, and varieties planted) and the occurrence of rice tungro disease epidemics using correspondence analyses. The sites covered were Isabela, Nueva Ecija, North Cotabato, and Bohol provinces as well as Bicol region. Tungro disease incidence in farmers’ fields was assessed visually based on typical symptoms. In addition, leaf samples were collected from each field and indexed serologically by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the presence of Rice tungro bacilliform (RTBV) and Rice tungro spherical (RTSV) viruses. Thus, relationships between the production environment variables and four disease variables — visual incidence and double RTBV and RTSV, single RTSV, and single RTBV infections — were examined. A higher association was observed between site and varieties planted as well as site and synchrony of planting than between site and agroecosystem or site and disease variables (visual incidence, double RTBV and RTSV and single RTSV infections). Disease variables depended on both varieties planted and synchrony of planting and correspondence analysis revealed that the low disease incidence in Nueva Ecija was associated with synchronous planting while the high disease incidence in Isabela was associated with the planting of susceptible varieties and asynchronous planting. Such findings suggest that the relationship between the last two factors at a given site is critical to predicting tungro occurrence. Moreover, correspondence analysis of the relationship among disease variables revealed that tungro incidence is associated with not only double RTBV and RTSV infections but also single RTSV infections. Implications of these results on tungro epidemiology and management are discussed.

Duty in the time of epidemics : what China and Zimbabwe teach us

In November 2002, a man with ‘atypical pneumonia’ treated in Foshan hospital, Guangdong Province, in the People's Republic of China, was the first known case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). However, it was not until April 2003 that the Chinese government admitted to the full scale of ‘atypical pneumonia’ cases infected with SARS, two months after the disease had rapidly spread across the world with initial infections in Hong Kong and Vietnam sourced to Guangdong. In 2008, Zimbabwe experienced one of the biggest outbreaks of cholera ever recorded. By February 2009, the disease had spread across all of Zimbabwe's 10 provinces and to neighbouring countries—Botswana, South Africa, Zambia and Mozambique—causing thousands of infections amongst their populations. This article seeks to examine what duties the Chinese and Zimbabwe states had to protect their citizens and the international community from these outbreaks. The article refers to the findings of the International Law Commission's study into the role of states and international organisations in protecting persons in the event of a disaster to consider whether there is an international duty to protect persons from epidemics. The article concludes that both cases reveal a growing concept of protection that entails an international duty to assist individuals when an affected state proves unwilling or unable to assist its own population in the event of a disease outbreak.

Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Considerations for a social and geographical framework for agent-based epidemics

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is of crucial importance, in contexts such as estimating load on medical services to risk assessment and intervention policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the spread itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we investigate the use of agent-based simulations to model such outbreaks in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena.Presented in this paper is the initial framework for such a model, detailing implementation of geographical features and generation of social structures. Preliminary results are a promising step towards large-scale simulations and evaluation of potential intervention policies.

Nursing students’ knowledge and practice of infection control precautions : an educational intervention

Aim. This paper is a report of the effectiveness of a purpose-designed education program in improving undergraduate nursing students’ understanding and practice of infection control precautions. Background. The severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2003 highlighted that healthcare workers were under-prepared for such an epidemic. While many in-service education sessions were arranged by institutions in response to the outbreak, preservice nursing education has overlooked preparation for handling such infectious disease epidemics. Method. A quasi-experimental design was used and a 16-hour, purpose-designed infection control education programme was implemented for preservice nursing students in southern Taiwan. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed at three time points during the period September 2005 to April 2006 to examine the sustainability and effectiveness of the intervention. Results. A total of 175 preservice nursing students participated in the study. Following the education programme, students in the intervention group showed a statistically significant improvement across time in their knowledge of these precautions [F(2, 180) = 13Æ53, P < 0Æ001] and confidence in resolving infectionrelated issues [F(1Æ79, 168Æ95) = 3Æ24] when compared with those in the control group. Conclusion. To improve nursing students’ capacity in responding to infectious epidemics, an educational programme that integrates the theme of infection precautions, learning theory and teaching strategies is recommended for all nursing institutes.

Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

Detection of bacteriophage and respiratory viruses in droplets

Influenza is a widespread disease occurring in seasonal epidemics, and each year is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths worldwide. Influenza can develop into strains which cause severe symptoms and high mortality rates, and could potentially reach pandemic status if the virus’ properties allow easy transmission. Influenza is transmissible via contact with the virus, either directly (infected people) or indirectly (contaminated objects); via reception of large droplets over short distances (one metre or less); or through inhalation of aerosols containing the virus expelled by infected individuals during respiratory activities, that can remain suspended in the air and travel distances of more than one metre (the aerosol route). Aerosol transmission of viruses involves three stages: production of the droplets containing viruses; transport of the droplets and ability of a virus to remain intact and infectious; and reception of the droplets (via inhalation). Our understanding of the transmission of influenza viruses via the aerosol route is poor, and thus our ability to prevent a widespread outbreak is limited. This study explored the fate of viruses in droplets by investigating the effects of some physical factors on the recovery of both a bacteriophage model and influenza virus. Experiments simulating respiratory droplets were carried out using different types of droplets, generated from a commonly used water-like matrix, and also from an ‘artificial mucous’ matrix which was used to more closely resemble respiratory fluids. To detect viruses in droplets, we used the traditional plaque assay techniques, and also a sensitive, quantitative PCR assay specifically developed for this study. Our results showed that the artificial mucous suspension enhanced the recovery of infectious bacteriophage. We were able to report detection limits of infectious bacteriophage (no bacteriophage was detected by the plaque assay when aerosolised from a suspension of 103 PFU/mL, for three of the four droplet types tested), and that bacteriophage could remain infectious in suspended droplets for up to 20 minutes. We also showed that the nested real-time PCR assay was able to detect the presence of bacteriophage RNA where the plaque assay could not detect any intact particles. Finally, when applying knowledge from the bacteriophage experiments, we reported the quantitative recoveries of influenza viruses in droplets, which were more consistent and stable than we had anticipated. Influenza viruses can be detected up to 20 minutes (after aerosolisation) in suspended aerosols and possibly beyond. It also was detectable from nebulising suspensions with relatively low concentrations of viruses.

Viruses of banana in East Africa

Bananas are one of the world's most important food crops, providing sustenance and income for millions of people in developing countries and supporting large export industries. Viruses are considered major constraints to banana production, germplasm multiplication and exchange, and to genetic improvement of banana through traditional breeding. In Africa, the two most important virus diseases are bunchy top, caused by Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV), and banana streak disease, caused by Banana streak virus (BSV). BBTV is a serious production constraint in a number of countries within/bordering East Africa, such as Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda and Zambia, but is not present in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Additionally, epidemics of banana streak disease are occurring in Kenya and Uganda. The rapidly growing tissue culture (TC) industry within East Africa, aiming to provide planting material to banana farmers, has stimulated discussion about the need for virus indexing to certify planting material as virus-free. Diagnostic methods for BBTV and BSV have been reported and, for BBTV, PCR-based assays are reliable and relatively straightforward. However for BSV, high levels of serological and genetic variability and the presence of endogenous virus sequences within the banana genome complicate diagnosis. Uganda has been shown to contain the greatest diversity in BSV isolates found anywhere in the world. A broad-spectrum diagnostic test for BSV detection, which can discriminate between endogenous and episomal BSV sequences, is a priority. This PhD project aimed to establish diagnostic methods for banana viruses, with a particular focus on the development of novel methods for BSV detection, and to use these diagnostic methods for the detection and characterisation of banana viruses in East Africa. A novel rolling-circle amplification (RCA) method was developed for the detection of BSV. Using samples of Banana streak MY virus (BSMYV) and Banana streak OL virus (BSOLV) from Australia, this method was shown to distinguish between endogenous and episomal BSV sequences in banana plants. The RCA assay was used to screen a collection of 56 banana samples from south-west Uganda for BSV. RCA detected at least five distinct BSV isolates in these samples, including BSOLV and Banana streak GF virus (BSGFV) as well as three BSV isolates (Banana streak Uganda-I, -L and -M virus) for which only partial sequences had been previously reported. These latter three BSV had only been detected using immuno-capture (IC)-PCR and thus were possible endogenous sequences. In addition to its ability to detect BSV, the RCA protocol was also demonstrated to detect other viruses within the family Caulimoviridae, including Sugar cane bacilliform virus, and Cauliflower mosaic virus. Using the novel RCA method, three distinct BSV isolates from both Kenya and Uganda were identified and characterised. The complete genome of these isolates was sequenced and annotated. All six isolates were shown to have a characteristic badnavirus genome organisation with three open reading frames (ORFs) and the large polyprotein encoded by ORF 3 was shown to contain conserved amino acid motifs for movement, aspartic protease, reverse transcriptase and ribonuclease H activities. As well, several sequences important for expression and replication of the virus genome were identified including the conserved tRNAmet primer binding site present in the intergenic region of all badnaviruses. Based on the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) guidelines for species demarcation in the genus Badnavirus, these six isolates were proposed as distinct species, and named Banana streak UA virus (BSUAV), Banana streak UI virus (BSUIV), Banana streak UL virus (BSULV), Banana streak UM virus (BSUMV), Banana streak CA virus (BSCAV) and Banana streak IM virus (BSIMV). Using PCR with species-specific primers designed to each isolate, a genotypically diverse collection of 12 virus-free banana cultivars were tested for the presence of endogenous sequences. For five of the BSV no amplification was observed in any cultivar tested, while for BSIMV, four positive samples were identified in cultivars with a B-genome component. During field visits to Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 143 samples were collected and assayed for BSV. PCR using nine sets of species-specific primers, and RCA, were compared for BSV detection. For five BSV species with no known endogenous counterpart (namely BSCAV, BSUAV, BSUIV, BSULV and BSUMV), PCR was used to detect 30 infections from the 143 samples. Using RCA, 96.4% of these samples were considered positive, with one additional sample detected using RCA which was not positive using PCR. For these five BSV, PCR and RCA were both useful for identifying infected samples, irrespective of the host cultivar genotype (Musa A- or B-genome components). For four additional BSV with known endogenous counterparts in the M. balbisiana genome (BSOLV, BSGFV, BSMYV and BSIMV), PCR was shown to detect 75 infections from the 143 samples. In 30 samples from cultivars with an A-only genome component there was 96.3% agreement between PCR positive samples and detection using RCA, again demonstrating either PCR or RCA are suitable methods for detection. However, in 45 samples from cultivars with some B-genome component, the level of agreement between PCR positive samples and RCA positive samples was 70.5%. This suggests that, in cultivars with some B-genome component, many infections were detected using PCR which were the result of amplification of endogenous sequences. In these latter cases, RCA or another method which discriminates between endogenous and episomal sequences, such as immuno-capture PCR, is needed to diagnose episomal BSV infection. Field visits were made to Malawi and Rwanda to collect local isolates of BBTV for validation of a PCR-based diagnostic assay. The presence of BBTV in samples of bananas with bunchy top disease was confirmed in 28 out of 39 samples from Malawi and all nine samples collected in Rwanda, using PCR and RCA. For three isolates, one from Malawi and two from Rwanda, the complete nucleotide sequences were determined and shown to have a similar genome organisation to previously published BBTV isolates. The two isolates from Rwanda had at least 98.1% nucleotide sequence identity between each of the six DNA components, while the similarity between isolates from Rwanda and Malawi was between 96.2% and 99.4% depending on the DNA component. At the amino acid level, similarities in the putative proteins encoded by DNA-R, -S, -M, - C and -N were found to range between 98.8% to 100%. In a phylogenetic analysis, the three East African isolates clustered together within the South Pacific subgroup of BBTV isolates. Nucleotide sequence comparison to isolates of BBTV from outside Africa identified India as the possible origin of East African isolates of BBTV.

Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.

Maize streak virus: An old and complex 'emerging' pathogen

Maize streak virus (MSV; Genus Mastrevirus, Family Geminiviridae) occurs throughout Africa, where it causes what is probably the most serious viral crop disease on the continent. It is obligately transmitted by as many as six leafhopper species in the Genus Cicadulina, but mainly by C. mbila Naudé and C. storeyi. In addition to maize, it can infect over 80 other species in the Family Poaceae. Whereas 11 strains of MSV are currently known, only the MSV-A strain is known to cause economically significant streak disease in maize. Severe maize streak disease (MSD) manifests as pronounced, continuous parallel chlorotic streaks on leaves, with severe stunting of the affected plant and, usuallly, a failure to produce complete cobs or seed. Natural resistance to MSV in maize, and/or maize infections caused by non-maize-adapted MSV strains, can result in narrow, interrupted streaks and no obvious yield losses. MSV epidemiology is primarily governed by environmental influences on its vector species, resulting in erratic epidemics every 3-10 years. Even in epidemic years, disease incidences can vary from a few infected plants per field, with little associated yield loss, to 100% infection rates and complete yield loss. Taxonomy: The only virus species known to cause MSD is MSV, the type member of the Genus Mastrevirus in the Family Geminiviridae. In addition to the MSV-A strain, which causes the most severe form of streak disease in maize, 10 other MSV strains (MSV-B to MSV-K) are known to infect barley, wheat, oats, rye, sugarcane, millet and many wild, mostly annual, grass species. Seven other mastrevirus species, many with host and geographical ranges partially overlapping those of MSV, appear to infect primarily perennial grasses. Physical properties: MSV and all related grass mastreviruses have single-component, circular, single-stranded DNA genomes of approximately 2700 bases, encapsidated in 22 × 38-nm geminate particles comprising two incomplete T = 1 icosahedra, with 22 pentameric capsomers composed of a single 32-kDa capsid protein. Particles are generally stable in buffers of pH 4-8. Disease symptoms: In infected maize plants, streak disease initially manifests as minute, pale, circular spots on the lowest exposed portion of the youngest leaves. The only leaves that develop symptoms are those formed after infection, with older leaves remaining healthy. As the disease progresses, newer leaves emerge containing streaks up to several millimetres in length along the leaf veins, with primary veins being less affected than secondary or tertiary veins. The streaks are often fused laterally, appearing as narrow, broken, chlorotic stripes, which may extend over the entire length of severely affected leaves. Lesion colour generally varies from white to yellow, with some virus strains causing red pigmentation on maize leaves and abnormal shoot and flower bunching in grasses. Reduced photosynthesis and increased respiration usually lead to a reduction in leaf length and plant height; thus, maize plants infected at an early stage become severely stunted, producing undersized, misshapen cobs or giving no yield at all. Yield loss in susceptible maize is directly related to the time of infection: Infected seedlings produce no yield or are killed, whereas plants infected at later times are proportionately less affected. Disease control: Disease avoidance can be practised by only planting maize during the early season when viral inoculum loads are lowest. Leafhopper vectors can also be controlled with insecticides such as carbofuran. However, the development and use of streak-resistant cultivars is probably the most effective and economically viable means of preventing streak epidemics. Naturally occurring tolerance to MSV (meaning that, although plants become systemically infected, they do not suffer serious yield losses) has been found, which has primarily been attributed to a single gene, msv-1. However, other MSV resistance genes also exist and improved resistance has been achieved by concentrating these within individual maiz genotypes. Whereas true MSV immunity (meaning that plants cannot be symptomatically infected by the virus) has been achieved in lines that include multiple small-effect resistance genes together with msv-1, it has proven difficult to transfer this immunity into commercial maize genotypes. An alternative resistance strategy using genetic engineering is currently being investigated in South Africa. Useful websites: 〈http://www.mcb.uct.ac.za/MSV/mastrevirus.htm〉; 〈http://www. danforthcenter.org/iltab/geminiviridae/geminiaccess/mastrevirus/Mastrevirus. htm〉. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.