A revisit to Pope's cohort analysis

Gulland's [Gulland, J.A., 1965. Estimation of mortality rates. Annex to Arctic Fisheries Working Group Report (meeting in Hamburg, January 1965). ICES. C.M. 1965, Doc. No. 3 (mimeographed)] virtual population analysis (VPA) is commonly used for studying the dynamics of harvested fish populations. However, it necessitates the solving of a nonlinear equation for the instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population. Pope [Pope, J.G., 1972. An investigation of the accuracy of Virtual Population Analysis using cohort analysis. ICNAF Res. Bull. 9, 65-74. Also available in D.H. Cushing (ed.) (1983), Key Papers on Fish Populations, p. 291-301, IRL Press, Oxford, 405 p.] eliminated this necessity in his cohort analysis by approximating its underlying age- and time-dependent population model. His approximation has since become one of the most commonly used age- and time-dependent fish population models in fisheries science. However, some of its properties are not well understood. For example, many assert that it describes the dynamics of a fish population, from which the catch of fish is taken instantaneously in the middle of the year. Such an assertion has never been proven, nor has its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time been examined, nor has its implied catch equation been derived from a general catch equation. In this paper, we prove this assertion, examine its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time, derive its implied catch equation from a general catch equation, and comment on how to structure an age- and time-dependent population model to ensure its internal consistency. This work shows that Gulland's (1965) virtual population analysis and Pope's (1972) cohort analysis lie at the opposite end of a continuous spectrum as a general model for a seasonally occurring fishery; Pope's (1972) approximation implies an infinitely large instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time in a fishing season of zero length; and its implied catch equation has an undefined instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population, but a well-defined cumulative instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in the population. This work also highlights a need for a more careful treatment of the times of start and end of a fishing season in fish population models.

Analysis of Sdhd and Mmp12 in an affected solar keratosis and control cohort

The incidence of Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCG) is growing in certain populations to the extent that it is now the most common skin lesion in young men and women in high ultraviolet exposure regions such as Queensland. In terms of incidence up to 40% of the Australian population over 40 years of age is thought to possess the precancerous Solar Keratosis (SK) lesion and with a small, but significant, chance of progression into SCC, understanding the genetic events that play a role in this process is essential. The major aims of this study were to analyse whole blood derived samples for DNA aberrations in genes associated with tumour development and cellular maintenance, with the ultimate aim of identifying genes associated with non-melanoma skin cancer development. More specifically the first aim of this project was to analyse the SDHD and MMP12 genes via Dual-Labelled Probe Real-Time PCR for copy number aberrations in an affected Solar Keratosis and control cohort. It was found that 12 samples had identifiable copy-number aberrations in either the SDHD or MMP12 gene (this means that a genetic section of either of these two genes is aberrantly amplified or deleted), with five of the samples exhibiting aberrations in both genes. The significance of this study is the contribution to the knowledge of the genetic pathways that are malformed in the progression and development of the pre-cancerous skin lesion Solar Keratosis. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Gene expression analysis of diagnostic biopsies predicts pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy of esophageal cancer

OBJECTIVE: This study explored gene expression differences in predicting response to chemoradiotherapy in esophageal cancer. PURPOSE:: A major pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation is observed in about 40% of esophageal cancer patients and is associated with favorable outcomes. However, patients with tumors of similar histology, differentiation, and stage can have vastly different responses to the same neoadjuvant therapy. This dichotomy may be due to differences in the molecular genetic environment of the tumor cells. BACKGROUND DATA: Diagnostic biopsies were obtained from a training cohort of esophageal cancer patients (13), and extracted RNA was hybridized to genome expression microarrays. The resulting gene expression data was verified by qRT-PCR. In a larger, independent validation cohort (27), we examined differential gene expression by qRT-PCR. The ability of differentially-regulated genes to predict response to therapy was assessed in a multivariate leave-one-out cross-validation model. RESULTS: Although 411 genes were differentially expressed between normal and tumor tissue, only 103 genes were altered between responder and non-responder tumor; and 67 genes differentially expressed >2-fold. These included genes previously reported in esophageal cancer and a number of novel genes. In the validation cohort, 8 of 12 selected genes were significantly different between the response groups. In the predictive model, 5 of 8 genes could predict response to therapy with 95% accuracy in a subset (74%) of patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified a gene microarray pattern and a set of genes associated with response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in esophageal cancer. The potential of these genes as biomarkers of response to treatment warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2009 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Prognostic value of TP53, KRAS and EGFR mutations in nonsmall cell lung cancer : the EUELC cohort

Nonsmall cell lung cancer samples from the European Early Lung Cancer biobank were analysed to assess the prognostic significance of mutations in the TP53, KRAS and EGFR genes. The series included 11 never-smokers, 86 former smokers, 152 current smokers and one patient without informed smoking status. There were 110 squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs), 133 adenocarcinomas (ADCs) and seven large cell carcinomas or mixed histologies. Expression of p53 was analysed by immunohistochemistry. DNA was extracted from frozen tumour tissues. TP53 mutations were detected in 48.8% of cases and were more frequent among SCCs than ADCs (p<0.0001). TP53 mutation status was not associated with prognosis. G to T transversions, known to be associated with smoking, were marginally more common among patients who developed a second primary lung cancer or recurrence/metastasis (progressive disease). EGFR mutations were almost exclusively found in never-smoking females (p=0.0067). KRAS mutations were detected in 18.5% of cases, mainly ADC (p<0.0001), and showed a tendency toward association with progressive disease status. These results suggest that mutations are good markers of different aetiologies and histopathological forms of lung cancers but have little prognostic value, with the exception of KRAS mutation, which may have a prognostic value in ADC. Copyright©ERS 2012.

Genetic determinants of heel bone properties: Genome-wide association meta-analysis and replication in the GEFOS/GENOMOS consortium

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel captures heel bone properties that independently predict fracture risk and, with bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by X-ray (DXA), may be convenient alternatives for evaluating osteoporosis and fracture risk. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies to assess the genetic determinants of heel broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA; n 5 14 260), velocity of sound (VOS; n 5 15 514) and BMD (n 5 4566) in 13 discovery cohorts. Independent replication involved seven cohorts with GWA data (in silico n 5 11 452) and new genotyping in 15 cohorts (de novo n 5 24 902). In combined random effects, meta-analysis of the discovery and replication cohorts, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) had genome-wide significant (P < 5 3 108) associations with heel bone properties. Alongside SNPs within or near previously identified osteoporosis susceptibility genes including ESR1 (6q25.1: rs4869739, rs3020331, rs2982552), SPTBN1 (2p16.2: rs11898505), RSPO3 (6q22.33: rs7741021), WNT16 (7q31.31: rs2908007), DKK1 (10q21.1: rs7902708) and GPATCH1 (19q13.11: rs10416265), we identified a new locus on chromosome 11q14.2 (rs597319 close to TMEM135, a gene recently linked to osteoblastogenesis and longevity) significantly associated with both BUA and VOS (P < 8.23 3 1014). In meta-analyses involving 25 cohorts with up to 14 985 fracture cases, six of 10 SNPs associated with heel bone properties at P < 5 3 106 also had the expected direction of association with any fracture (P < 0.05), including threeSNPswithP < 0.005: 6q22.33 (rs7741021), 7q31.31 (rs2908007) and 10q21.1 (rs7902708). In conclusion, thisGWAstudy reveals the effect of several genescommon to central DXA-derivedBMDand heel ultrasound/DXAmeasures and points to anewgenetic locus with potential implications for better understanding of osteoporosis pathophysiology.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide studies identifies MEF2C SNPs associated with bone mineral density at forearm

Background Forearm fractures affect 1.7 million individuals worldwide each year and most occur earlier in life than hip fractures. While the heritability of forearm bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture is high, their genetic determinants are largely unknown. Aim To identify genetic variants associated with forearm BMD and forearm fractures. Methods BMD at distal radius, measured by dualenergy x-ray absorptiometry, was tested for association with common genetic variants. We conducted a metaanalysis of genome-wide association studies for BMD in 5866 subjects of European descent and then selected the variants for replication in 715 Mexican American samples. Gene-based association was carried out to supplement the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) association test. We then tested the BMD-associated SNPs for association with forearm fracture in 2023 cases and 3740 controls. Results We found that five SNPs in the introns of MEF2C were associated with forearm BMD at a genome-wide significance level (p<5×10-8) in meta-analysis (lead SNP, rs11951031[T] -0.20 SDs per allele, p=9.01×10-9). The gene-based association test suggested an association between MEF2C and forearm BMD ( p=0.003). The association between MEF2C variants and risk of fracture did not achieve statistical significance (SNP rs12521522[A]: OR=1.14 (95% CI 0.92 to 1.35), p=0.14). Meta-analysis also revealed two genome-wide suggestive loci at CTNNA2 and 6q23.2. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that variants at MEF2C were associated with forearm BMD, implicating this gene in the determination of BMD at forearm.

Using genome-Wwide complex trait analysis to quantify 'missing heritability' in Parkinson's disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been successful at identifying single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) highly associated with common traits; however, a great deal of the heritable variation associated with common traits remains unaccounted for within the genome. Genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA) is a statistical method that applies a linear mixed model to estimate phenotypic variance of complex traits explained by genome-wide SNPs, including those not associated with the trait in a GWAS. We applied GCTA to 8 cohorts containing 7096 case and 19 455 control individuals of European ancestry in order to examine the missing heritability present in Parkinson's disease (PD). We meta-analyzed our initial results to produce robust heritability estimates for PD types across cohorts. Our results identify 27% (95% CI 17-38, P = 8.08E - 08) phenotypic variance associated with all types of PD, 15% (95% CI -0.2 to 33, P = 0.09) phenotypic variance associated with early-onset PD and 31% (95% CI 17-44, P = 1.34E - 05) phenotypic variance associated with late-onset PD. This is a substantial increase from the genetic variance identified by top GWAS hits alone (between 3 and 5%) and indicates there are substantially more risk loci to be identified. Our results suggest that although GWASs are a useful tool in identifying the most common variants associated with complex disease, a great deal of common variants of small effect remain to be discovered. © Published by Oxford University Press 2012.

Adherence, adaptation and acceptance of elderly chronic heart failure patients to receiving healthcare via telephone-monitoring

Background: Although the potential to reduce hospitalisation and mortality in chronic heart failure (CHF) is well reported, the feasibility of receiving healthcare by structured telephone support or telemonitoring is not. Aims: To determine; adherence, adaptation and acceptability to a national nurse-coordinated telephone-monitoring CHF management strategy. The Chronic Heart Failure Assistance by Telephone Study (CHAT). Methods: Triangulation of descriptive statistics, feedback surveys and qualitative analysis of clinical notes. Cohort comprised of standard care plus intervention (SC + I) participants who completed the first year of the study. Results: 30 GPs (70% rural) randomised to SC + I recruited 79 eligible participants, of whom 60 (76%) completed the full 12 month follow-up period. During this time 3619 calls were made into the CHAT system (mean 45.81 SD ± 79.26, range 0-369), Overall there was an adherence to the study protocol of 65.8% (95% CI 0.54-0.75; p = 0.001) however, of the 60 participants who completed the 12 month follow-up period the adherence was significantly higher at 92.3% (95% CI 0.82-0.97, p ≤ 0.001). Only 3% of this elderly group (mean age 74.7 ±9.3 years) were unable to learn or competently use the technology. Participants rated CHAT with a total acceptability rate of 76.45%. Conclusion: This study shows that elderly CHF patients can adapt quickly, find telephone-monitoring an acceptable part of their healthcare routine, and are able to maintain good adherence for a least 12 months. © 2007.

Unique X-linked familial FSGS with co-segregating heart block disorder is associated with a mutation in the NXF5 gene

Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) is the consequence of a disease process that attacks the kidney's filtering system, causing serious scarring. More than half of FSGS patients develop chronic kidney failure within 10 years, ultimately requiring dialysis or renal transplantation. There are currently several genes known to cause the hereditary forms of FSGS (ACTN4, TRPC6, CD2AP, INF2, MYO1E and NPHS2). This study involves a large, unique, multigenerational Australian pedigree in which FSGS co-segregates with progressive heart block with apparent X-linked recessive inheritance. Through a classical combined approach of linkage and haplotype analysis, we identified a 21.19 cM interval implicated on the X chromosome. We then used a whole exome sequencing approach to identify two mutated genes, NXF5 and ALG13, which are located within this linkage interval. The two mutations NXF5-R113W and ALG13-T141L segregated perfectly with the disease phenotype in the pedigree and were not found in a large healthy control cohort. Analysis using bioinformatics tools predicted the R113W mutation in the NXF5 gene to be deleterious and cellular studies support a role in the stability and localization of the protein suggesting a causative role of this mutation in these co-morbid disorders. Further studies are now required to determine the functional consequence of these novel mutations to development of FSGS and heart block in this pedigree and to determine whether these mutations have implications for more common forms of these diseases in the general population.

Surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer : clinical features and outcomes for a consecutive series at an Irish tertiary referral centre

Background: Few patients diagnosed with lung cancer are still alive 5 years after diagnosis. The aim of the current study was to conduct a 10-year review of a consecutive series of patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection at the largest tertiary referral centre to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Case records of all patients operated on for lung cancer between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. The clinical features and outcomes of all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stage I-IV were recorded. Results: A total of 654 patients underwent surgical resection with curative intent during the study period. Median overall survival for the entire cohort was 37 months. The median age at operation was 66 years, with males accounting for 62.7 %. Squamous cell type was the most common histological subtype, and lobectomies were performed in 76.5 % of surgical resections. Pneumonectomy rates decreased significantly in the latter half of the study (25 vs. 16.3 %), while sub-anatomical resection more than doubled (2 vs. 5 %) (p < 0.005). Clinico-pathological characteristics associated with improved survival by univariate analysis include younger age, female sex, smaller tumour size, smoking status, lobectomy, lower T and N status and less advanced pathological stage. Age, gender, smoking status and tumour size, as well as T and N descriptors have emerged as independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis. Conclusion: We identified several factors that predicted outcome for NSCLC patients undergoing curative-intent surgical resection. Survival rates in our series are comparable to those reported from other thoracic surgery centres. © 2012 Royal Academy of Medicine in Ireland.

IL-23 is pro-proliferative, epigenetically regulated and modulated by chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer

Background IL-23 is a member of the IL-6 super-family and plays key roles in cancer. Very little is currently known about the role of IL-23 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods RT-PCR and chromatin immunopreciptiation (ChIP) were used to examine the levels, epigenetic regulation and effects of various drugs (DNA methyltransferase inhibitors, Histone Deacetylase inhibitors and Gemcitabine) on IL-23 expression in NSCLC cells and macrophages. The effects of recombinant IL-23 protein on cellular proliferation were examined by MTT assay. Statistical analysis consisted of Student's t-test or one way analysis of variance (ANOVA) where groups in the experiment were three or more. Results In a cohort of primary non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) tumours, IL-23A expression was significantly elevated in patient tumour samples (p<0.05). IL-23A expression is epigenetically regulated through histone post-translational modifications and DNA CpG methylation. Gemcitabine, a chemotherapy drug indicated for first-line treatment of NSCLC also induced IL-23A expression. Recombinant IL-23 significantly increased cellular proliferation in NSCLC cell lines. Conclusions These results may therefore have important implications for treating NSCLC patients with either epigenetic targeted therapies or Gemcitabine. © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Quality of life and survival in patients treated with radical chemoradiation alone for oesophageal cancer

Aims: To report cancer-specific and health-related quality-of-life outcomes in patients undergoing radical chemoradiation (CRT) alone for oesophageal cancer. Materials and methods: Between 1998 and 2005, 56 patients with oesophageal cancer received definitive radical CRT, due to local disease extent, poor general health, or patient choice. Data from European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality-of-life questionnaires QLQ-30 and QLQ-OES24 were collected prospectively. Questionnaires were completed at diagnosis, and at 3, 6 and 12 months after CRT where applicable. Results: The median follow-up was 18 months. The median overall survival was 14 months, with a 51, 26 and 13% 1-, 3- and 5-year survival, respectively. At 12 months after treatment there was a significant improvement compared with before treatment with respect to dysphagia and pain. Global health scores were not significantly affected. Conclusions: Considering the relatively short long-term survival for this cohort of patients, maximising the quality of those final months should be very carefully borne in mind from the outset. The health-related quality-of-life data reported herein helps to establish benchmarks for larger evaluation within randomised clinical trials. © 2007 The Royal College of Radiologists.

Single-agent versus combination chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer and a performance status of 2 : prognostic factors and treatment selection based on two large randomized clinical trials

Purpose: Data from two randomized phase III trials were analyzed to evaluate prognostic factors and treatment selection in the first-line management of advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients with performance status (PS) 2. Patients and Methods: Patients randomized to combination chemotherapy (carboplatin and paclitaxel) in one trial and single-agent therapy (gemcitabine or vinorelbine) in the second were included in these analyses. Both studies had identical eligibility criteria and were conducted simultaneously. Comparison of efficacy and safety was performed between the two cohorts. A regression analysis identified prognostic factors and subgroups of patients that may benefit from combination or single-agent therapy. Results: Two hundred one patients were treated with combination and 190 with single-agent therapy. Objective responses were 37 and 15%, respectively. Median time to progression was 4.6 months in the combination arm and 3.5 months in the single-agent arm (p < 0.001). Median survival imes were 8.0 and 6.6 months, and 1-year survival rates were 31 and 26%, respectively. Albumin <3.5 g, extrathoracic metastases, lactate dehydrogenase ≥200 IU, and 2 comorbid conditions predicted outcome. Patients with 0-2 risk factors had similar outcomes independent of treatment, whereas patients with 3-4 factors had a nonsignificant improvement in median survival with combination chemotherapy. Conclusion: Our results show that PS2 non-small cell lung cancer patients are a heterogeneous group who have significantly different outcomes. Patients treated with first-line combination chemotherapy had a higher response and longer time to progression, whereas overall survival did not appear significantly different. A prognostic model may be helpful in selecting PS 2 patients for either treatment strategy. © 2009 by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

Toxicity profile of the immunomodulatory thalidomide analogue, lenalidomide : Phase I clinical trial of three dosing schedules in patients with solid malignancies

Thalidomide is an anti-angiogenic agent currently used to treat patients with malignant cachexia or multiple myeloma. Lenalidomide (CC-5013) is an immunomodulatory thalidomide analogue licensed in the United States of America (USA) for the treatment of a subtype of myelodysplastic syndrome. This two-centre, open-label phase I study evaluated dose-limiting toxicities in 55 patients with malignant solid tumours refractory to standard chemotherapies. Lenalidomide capsules were consumed once daily for 12 weeks according to one of the following three schedules: (I) 25 mg daily for the first 7 d, the daily dose increased by 25 mg each week up to a maximum daily dose of 150 mg; (II) 25 mg daily for 21 d followed by a 7-d rest period, the 4-week cycle repeated for 3 cycles; (III) 10 mg daily continuously. Twenty-six patients completed the study period. Two patients experienced a grade 3 hypersensitivity rash. Four patients in cohort I and 4 patients in cohort II suffered grade 3 or 4 neutropaenia. In 2 patients with predisposing medical factors, grade 3 cardiac dysrhythmia was recorded. Grade 1 neurotoxicity was detected in 6 patients. One complete and two partial radiological responses were measured by computed tomography scanning; 8 patients had stable disease after 12 weeks of treatment. Fifteen patients remained on treatment as named patients; 1 with metastatic melanoma remains in clinical remission 3.5 years from trial entry. This study indicates the tolerability and potential clinical efficacy of lenalidomide in patients with advanced solid tumours who have previously received multi-modality treatment. Depending on the extent of myelosuppressive pre-treatment, dose schedules (II) or (III) are advocated for large-scale trials of long-term administration. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RanGTPase : a candidate for myc-mediated cancer progression

Background Ras-related nuclear protein (Ran) is required for cancer cell survival in vitro and human cancer progression, but the molecular mechanisms are largely unknown. Methods We investigated the effect of the v-myc myelocytomatosis viral oncogene homolog (Myc) on Ran expression by Western blot, chromatin immunoprecipitation, and luciferase reporter assays and the effects of Myc and Ran expression in cancer cells by soft-agar, cell adhesion, and invasion assays. The correlation between Myc and Ran and the association with patient survival were investigated in 14 independent patient cohorts (n = 2430) and analyzed with Spearman's rank correlation and Kaplan-Meier plots coupled with Wilcoxon-Gehan tests, respectively. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Myc binds to the upstream sequence of Ran and transactivates Ran promoter activity. Overexpression of Myc upregulates Ran expression, whereas knockdown of Myc downregulates Ran expression. Myc or Ran overexpression in breast cancer cells is associated with cancer progression and metastasis. Knockdown of Ran reverses the effect induced by Myc overexpression in breast cancer cells. In clinical data, a positive association between Myc and Ran expression was revealed in 288 breast cancer and 102 lung cancer specimens. Moreover, Ran expression levels differentiate better or poorer survival in Myc overexpressing breast (χ2 = 24.1; relative risk [RR] = 9.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.3 to 24.7, P <. 001) and lung (χ2 = 6.04; RR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.2 to 6.3; P =. 01) cancer cohorts. Conclusions Our results suggest that Ran is required for and is a potential therapeutic target of Myc-driven cancer progression in both breast and lung cancers. © 2013 The Author.