Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Assessing health risk associated with airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons by chemometrics and toxic equivalency factors

Some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous in air and have been implicated as carcinogenic materials. Therefore, literature is replete with studies that are focused on their occurrence and profiles in indoor and outdoor air samples. However, because the relative potency of individual PAHs vary widely, health risks associated with the presence of PAHs in a particular environment cannot be extrapolated directly from the concentrations of individual PAHs in that environment. In addition, database on the potency of PAH mixtures is currently limited. In this paper, we have utilized multi-criteria decision making methods (MCDMs) to simultaneously correlate PAH-related health risk in some microenvironments to the concentration levels, ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity induction equivalency factors and toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) of PAHs found in those microenvironments. The results showed that the relative risk associated with PAHs in different air samples depends on the index used. Nevertheless, this approach offers a promising tool that could help identify microenvironments of concern and assist the prioritisation of control strategies.

Layered titanate nanofibers as efficient adsorbents for removal of toxic radioactive and heavy metal ions from water

Titanate nanofibers with two formulas, Na2Ti3O7 and Na1.5H0.5Ti3O7, respectively, exhibit ideal properties for removal of radioactive and heavy metal ions in wastewater, such as Sr2+ , Ba2+ (as substitute of 226Ra2+), and Pb2+ ions. These nanofibers can be fabricated readily by a reaction between titania and caustic soda and have structures in which TiO6 octahedra join each other to form layers with negative charges; the sodium cations exist within the interlayer regions and are exchangeable. They can selectively adsorb the bivalent radioactive ions and heavy metal ions from water through ion exchange process. More importantly, such sorption finally induces considerable deformation of the layer structure, resulting in permanent entrapment of the toxic bivalent cations in the fibers so that the toxic ions can be safely deposited. This study highlights that nanoparticles of inorganic ion exchangers with layered structure are potential materials for efficient removal of the toxic ions from contaminated water.

Prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus strains in an Australian cohort, 1989-2003 : evidence for the low prevalence of the toxic shock toxin and Panton-Valentine leukocidin genes

The purpose of this paper is to determine the prevalence of the toxic shock toxin gene (tst) and to enumerate the circulating strains of methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in Australian isolates collected over two decades. The aim was to subtype these strains using the binary genes pvl, cna, sdrE, pUB110 and pT181. Isolates were assayed using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for mecA, nuc, 16 S rRNA, eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and for five binary genes. Two realtime PCR assays were developed for tst. The 90 MRSA isolates belonged to CC239 (39 in 1989, 38 in 1996 and ten in 2003), CC1 (two in 2003) and CC22 (one in 2003). The majority of the 210 MSSA isolates belonged to CC1 (26), CC5 (24) and CC78 (23). Only 18 isolates were tst-positive and only 15 were pvl-positive. Nine MSSA isolates belonged to five binary types of ST93, including two pvlpositive types. The proportion of tst-positive and pvl-positive isolates was low and no significant increase was demonstrated. Dominant MSSA clonal complexes were similar to those seen elsewhere, with the exception of CC78. CC239 MRSA (AUS-2/3) was the predominant MRSA but decreased significantly in prevalence, while CC22 (EMRSA-15) and CC1 (WA-1) emerged. Genetically diverse ST93 MSSA predated the emergence of ST93- MRSA (the Queensland clone).

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Use of hydrotalcites for the removal of toxic anions from aqueous solutions

The removal of toxic anions has been achieved using hydrotalcite via two methods: (1) coprecipitation and (2) thermal activation. Hydrotalcite formed via the coprecipitation method, using solutions containing arsenate and vanadate up to pH 10, are able to remove more than 95% of the toxic anions (0.2 M) from solution. The removal of toxic anions in solutions with a pH of >10 reduces the removal uptake percentage to 75%. Raman spectroscopy observed multiple A1 stretching modes of V−O and As−O at 930 and 810 cm−1, assigned to vanadate and arsenate, respectively. Analysis of the intensity and position of the A1 stretching modes helped to identify the vanadate and arsenate specie intercalated into the hydrotalcite structure. It has been determined that 3:1 hydrotalcite structure predominantly intercalate anions into the interlayer region, while the 2:1 and 4:1 hydrotalcite structures shows a large portion of anions being removed from solution by adsorption processes. Treatment of carbonate solutions (0.2 M) containing arsenate and vanadate (0.2 M) three times with thermally activated hydrotalcite has been shown to remove 76% and 81% of the toxic anions, respectively. Thermally activated hydrotalcite with a Mg:Al ratio of 2:1, 3:1, and 4:1 have all been shown to remove 95% of arsenate and vanadate (25 ppm). At increased concentrations of arsenate and vanadate, the removal uptake percentage decreased significantly, except for the 4:1 thermally activated hydrotalcite. Thermally activated Bayer hydrotalcite has also been shown to be highly effective in the removal of arsenate and vanadate. The thermal activation of the solid residue component (red mud) removes 30% of anions from solution (100 ppm of both anions), while seawater-neutralized red mud removes 70%. The formation of hydrotalcite during the seawater neutralization process removes anions via two mechanisms, rather than one observed for thermally activated red mud.

Design and implementation of sensor networks for the observation and research of harmful algal blooms in southern California coastal waters

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) have become an important environmental concern along the western coast of the United States. Toxic and noxious blooms adversely impact the economies of coastal communities in the region, pose risks to human health, and cause mortality events that have resulted in the deaths of thousands of fish, marine mammals and seabirds. One goal of field-based research efforts on this topic is the development of predictive models of HABs that would enable rapid response, mitigation and ultimately prevention of these events. In turn, these objectives are predicated on understanding the environmental conditions that stimulate these transient phenomena. An embedded sensor network (Fig. 1), under development in the San Pedro Shelf region off the Southern California coast, is providing tools for acquiring chemical, physical and biological data at high temporal and spatial resolution to help document the emergence and persistence of HAB events, supporting the design and testing of predictive models, and providing contextual information for experimental studies designed to reveal the environmental conditions promoting HABs. The sensor platforms contained within this network include pier-based sensor arrays, ocean moorings, HF radar stations, along with mobile sensor nodes in the form of surface and subsurface autonomous vehicles. FreewaveTM radio modems facilitate network communication and form a minimally-intrusive, wireless communication infrastructure throughout the Southern California coastal region, allowing rapid and cost-effective data transfer. An emerging focus of this project is the incorporation of a predictive ocean model that assimilates near-real time, in situ data from deployed Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). The model then assimilates the data to increase the skill of both nowcasts and forecasts, thus providing insight into bloom initiation as well as the movement of blooms or other oceanic features of interest (e.g., thermoclines, fronts, river discharge, etc.). From these predictions, deployed mobile sensors can be tasked to track a designated feature. This focus has led to the creation of a technology chain in which algorithms are being implemented for the innovative trajectory design for AUVs. Such intelligent mission planning is required to maneuver a vehicle to precise depths and locations that are the sites of active blooms, or physical/chemical features that might be sources of bloom initiation or persistence. The embedded network yields high-resolution, temporal and spatial measurements of pertinent environmental parameters and resulting biology (see Fig. 1). Supplementing this with ocean current information and remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, we obtain a comprehensive foundation for developing a fundamental understanding of HAB events. This then directs labor- intensive and costly sampling efforts and analyses. Additionally, we provide coastal municipalities, managers and state agencies with detailed information to aid their efforts in providing responsible environmental stewardship of their coastal waters.

Removal of toxic arsenic and antimony from groundwater Spiro Tunnel Bulkhead in Park City Utah using colloidal iron hydroxide : comparison with reverse ssmosis

Verification testing of two model technologies in pilot scale to remove arsenic and antimony based on reverse osmosis and chemical coagulation/filtration systems was conducted in Spiro Tunnel Water Filtration Plant located in Park City, Utah, US. The source water was groundwater in abandoned silver mine, naturally contaminated by 60-80 ppb of arsenic and antimony below 10 ppb. This water represents one of the sources of drinking water for Park City and constitutes about 44% of the water supply. The failure to remove antimony efficiently by coagulation/filtration (only 4.4% removal rate) under design conditions is discussed in terms of the chemistry differences between Sb (III, V) and As (III, V). Removal of Sb(V) at pH > 7, using coagulation/filtration technology, requires much higher (50 to 80 times) concentration of iron (III) than As. The stronger adsorption of arsenate over a wider pH range can be explained by the fact that arsenic acid is tri-protic, whereas antimonic acid is monoprotic. This difference in properties of As(V) and Sb(V) makes antimony (V) more difficult to be efficiently removed in low concentrations of iron hydroxide and alkaline pH waters, especially in concentration of Sb < 10 ppb.

Let them bloom : Growing colourful citizens with caring classroom teachers

This paper examines the essential qualities of a good classroom teacher. The analogy of a caring gardener who understands the individual growing needs of a vast variety of plants is used. The paper argues for the freedom to have differing non-sectarian curricula and for trust to be placed in the teaching profession.