Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Obesity in pregnancy : outcomes and economics

Maternal obesity is an important aspect of reproductive care. It is the commonest risk factor for maternal mortality in developed countries and is also associated with a wide spectrum of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal obesity may have longer-term implications for the health of the mother and infant, which in turn will have economic implications. Efforts to prevent, manage and treat obesity in pregnancy will be costly, but may pay dividends from reduced future economic costs, and subsequent improvements to maternal and infant health. Decision-makers working in this area of health services should understand whether the problem can be reduced, at what cost; and then, what cost savings and health benefits will accrue in the future from a reduction of the problem.

Depression, anxiety and body image after treatment for invasive stage one epithelial ovarian cancer

Background: Diagnosis of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in young women has major implications including those to their reproductive potential. We evaluated depression, anxiety and body image in patients with stage I EOC treated with fertility sparing surgery (FSS) or radical surgery (RS). We also investigated fertility outcomes after FSS.----- Methods: A retrospective study was undertaken in which 62 patients completed questionnaires related to anxiety, depression, body image and fertility outcomes. Additional information on adjuvant therapy after FSS and RS and demographic details were abstracted from medical records. Both bi and multivariate regression models were used to assess the relationship between demographic, clinical and pathological results and scores for anxiety, depression and body image.----- Results: Thirty-nine patients underwent RS and the rest, FSS. The percentage of patients reporting elevated anxiety and depression (subscores ≥ 11) were 27 % and 5% respectively. The median (inter quartile range) score for body image scale (BIS) was 6 (3-15). None of the demographic or clinical factors examined showed significant association with anxiety and BIS with the exception of ‘time since diagnosis’. For depression, post-menopausal status was the only independent predictor. Among those 23 patients treated by FSS, 14 patients tried to conceive (7 successful), resulting in 7 live births, one termination of pregnancy and one miscarriage.----- Conclusion: This study shows that psychological issues are common in women treated for stage I EOC. Reproduction after FSS is feasible and lead to the birth of healthy babies in about half of patients who wished to have another child. Further prospective studies with standardised instruments are required.

Validation of the WHOQOL-BREF among women following childbirth

Background: There is an increasing interest in measuring quality of life (QOL) in clinical settings and in clinical trials. None of the commonly used QOL instrument have been validated for use postnatally. Aim: To assess the psychometric properties of the 26-item WHOQOL-BREF among women following childbirth. Methods: Using a prospective cohort design we recruited 320 women within the first few days of childbirth. At six weeks postpartum, participants were asked to complete the WHOQOL-BREF, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Index and the Australian Unity Wellbeing Index. Validation of the WHOQOL-BREF included an analysis of internal consistency, discriminate validity, convergent validity and an examination of the domain structure. Results: 221 (69.1%) women returned their six-week questionnaire. All domains of the WHOQOL-BREF met reliability standards (alpha coefficient exceeding 0.70). The questionnaire discriminated well between known groups (depressed and non-depressed women. P = <0.000) and demonstrated satisfactory correlations with the Australian Unity Wellbeing index (r = >0.45). The domain structure of the WHOQOL-BREF was also valid in this population of new mothers, with moderate to high correlation between individual items and the domain structure to which the items were originally assigned. Conclusion: The WHOQOL-BRF is well-accepted and valid instrument in this population and may be used in postnatal clinical settings or for assessing intervention effects in research studies.

Women who miscarry : the effectiveness and clinical utility of the Kessler 10 questionnaire in screening for ongoing psychological distress

Background: Early pregnancy loss has been linked to enduring psychological morbidity. Aims: This study aimed to investigate the utility of the Kessler 10 (K10) questionnaire as a brief screening instrument to identify women at risk for the development of psychiatric diagnoses three months post-miscarriage. Method: Participants were 117 consecutive women presenting at a public hospital emergency department and receiving a diagnosis of miscarriage. Main outcome measures: K10 screen for psychological distress and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM Disorders to determine psychiatric diagnoses. Results: A majority of women (81.2%) experienced elevated levels of distress initially, 24.8% in the very high range. They were not at increased risk of psychiatric diagnoses at three months compared with the general population; however, they were significantly more likely to report subsyndromal symptoms at this time compared with the general population. The baseline K10 score was the only significant predictor of distress at follow-up (r = 0.45, P < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve shows that a cut-off of 14 on the K10 has suitable sensitivity (97%) and specificity (82%) for predicting ongoing psychological distress in women who miscarry. Conclusions: The K10 is effective in identifying women at risk for ensuring psychological symptoms following miscarriage.

Ureaplasma colonization of amniotic fluid and efficacy of antenatal corticosteroids for preterm lung maturation in sheep

Objective: To assess the efficacy of maternal betamethasone for improving preterm lung function, in the presence of inflammation induced by amniotic fluid ureaplasma colonization. ----- ----- Study design: Ewes bearing single fetuses were randomized to receive an intra-amniotic injection of Ureaplasma parvum (serovar 6; 2×107 colony forming units) or vehicle at 86±2 days of pregnancy (mean±SD: term is 150d), followed by maternal intramuscular betamethasone (0.5mg/kg) or saline, either 2 or 7 days before delivery of lambs at 123±1d. ----- ----- Results: Amniotic fluid IL-8 was elevated by ureaplasmas (p=0.049) but unaffected by betamethasone. Lung inflammation induced by ureaplasmas was not affected by betamethasone. Lung compliance was increased by ureaplasma colonization (p=0.009) and betamethasone (p=0.042), and effects were additive. Lung surfactant was increased by ureaplasma colonization (p<0.001) and betamethasone 7 days (p=0.001), but not 2 days, before delivery. ----- ----- Conclusion: Inflammation improves preterm lung function due to increases in surfactant. Antenatal corticosteroids further augment lung function, through an apparently independent mechanism.

Hormones down under: Hormone therapy use after the Women's Health Initiative

Aims:  The primary objective was to describe the usage pattern of hormone therapy (HT) in a sample of urban Australian women in 2001 and to assess the characteristics of users vs. non-users. The second objective was to determine whether there had been any change in usage since the publication of the results of the combined oestrogen plus progestagen arm of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) in 2002. Methods:  A cohort of 374 postmenopausal women aged 50–80 years participated in this substudy of the LAW (Longitudinal Assessment of Ageing in Women) project: a 5-year multidisciplinary, observational study. Participants completed an annual medical assessment including details of the use of HT and the reasons for use, as well as demographic and psychosocial data. Results:  In December 2001, 30.8% of the participants were using HT, whereas 55.4% were ever users. The management of vasomotor symptoms and mood disturbance were the primary reasons for use. Of those who had been using HT in December 2001 (24.4%) women ceased using HT in the 3 months following publication of the WHI results. The percentage of women using HT in December 2003 (13.9%) was less than half of that of December 2001. Conclusion:  The rate of HT use and the reasons for use, in 2001 in Brisbane was similar to that of other Australian regions. Usage of HT decreased since the publication of the WHI results in 2002 which may reflect changing attitudes by patients and practitioners regarding HT.

A prospective study of pregnancy weight gain in Australian women

Background: While weight gain during pregnancy is regarded as important, there has not been a prospective study of measured weight gain in pregnancy in Australia. This study aimed to prospectively evaluate pregnancy-related weight gain against the Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommendations in women receiving antenatal care in a setting where ongoing weight monitoring is not part of routine clinical practice, to describe women's knowledge of weight gain recommendations and to describe the health professional advice received relating to gestational weight gain (GWG). Methods: Pregnant women were recruited ≤20 weeks of gestation (n = 664) from a tertiary obstetric hospital between August 2010 to July 2011 for this prospective observational study. Outcome measures were weight gain from pre-pregnancy to 36 weeks of gestation, weight gain knowledge and health professional advice received. Results: Thirty-six percent of women gained weight according to guidelines. Twenty-six percent gained inadequate weight, and 38% gained excess weight. Fifty-six percent of overweight women gained weight in excess of the IOM guidelines compared with 30% of those who started with a healthy weight (P < 0.001). At 16 weeks, 47% of participants were unsure of the weight gain recommendations for them. Sixty-two percent of women reported that the health professionals caring for them during this pregnancy ‘never’ or ‘rarely’ offered advice about how much weight to gain. Conclusions: The prevalence of inappropriate gestational weight gain in this study was high. The majority of women do not know their recommended weight gain. The advice women received from health professionals relating to healthy weight gain in pregnancy could be improved.

Strategies for the prevention of cervical cancer by human papillomavirus vaccination

As cervical cancer is causally associated with 14 high-risk types of human papillomavirus (HPV), a successful HPV vaccine will have a major impact on this disease. Although some persistent HPV infections progress to cervical cancer, host immunity is generally able to clear most HPV infections. Both cell-mediated and antibody responses have been implicated in influencing the susceptibility, persistence or clearance of genital HPV infection. There have been two clinical trials that show that vaccines based on virus-like particles (VLPs) made from the major capsid protein, L1, are able to type specifically protect against cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia and infection. However, there is no evidence that even a mixed VLP vaccine will protect against types not included in the vaccine, and a major challenge that remains is how to engineer protection across a broader spectrum of viruses. Strategies for production of HPV vaccines using different vaccine vectors and different production systems are also reviewed. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving health behaviours during pregnancy: A new direction for the pregnancy handheld record

Obstetric documentation processes may influence the clinical, behavioural, and psychological outcomes of pregnancy, although recent alterations to integrate obstetric documentation with pregnancy handheld records have been unsuccessful. Woman-held records as a companion to usual obstetric documentation have the potential to improve pregnancy-related health behaviours with a demonstrated association with maternal and infant health outcomes, and recommendations for their format and content are provided.

Legal, cultural and practical developments in responding to female genital mutilation : can an absolute human right emerge?

Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a cultural practice involving the deliberate, non-therapeutic physical modification of young girls’ genitalia. FGM can take several forms, ranging from smaller incisions, to removal of the clitoris and labia, and narrowing or even closing of the vagina. FGM predates and has no basis in the Koran, or any other religious text. Rather, it is a cultural tradition, particularly common in Islamic societies in regions of Africa, motivated by a patriarchal society’s desire to control female bodies and lives. The primary reason for this desire for control is to ensure virginity at marriage, thereby preserving family honour, within a patriarchal social structure where females’ value as persons is intrinsically connected to, and limited to, their worth as virgin brides. Recent efforts at legal prohibition and practical eradication in a growing number of African nations mark a significant turning point in how societies treat females. This shift in cultural power has been catalysed by a concern for female health, but it has also been motivated by an impulse to promote the human rights of girls and women. Although FGM remains widely practiced and there is much progress yet to be made before its eradication, the rights-based approach which has grown in strength embodies a marked shift in cultural power which reflects progress in women’s and children’s rights in the Western world, but which is now being applied in a different cultural context. This chapter reviews the nature of FGM, its prevalence, and health consequences. It discusses recent legal, cultural and practical developments, especially in African nations. Finally, this chapter raises the possibility that an absolute human right against FGM may emerge.

The role of Ureaplasma urealyticum in adverse pregnancy outcome

We investigated Ureaplasma urealyticum genital tract colonisation rates in an Australian population to determine whether colonisation was associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. Women attending an antenatal clinic were evaluated for lower genital tract colonisation at their first antenatal visit (162 women) and at 28 weeks gestation (120 women). Placentas from 92 women were cultured. U. urealyticum was the predominant isolate from the lower (57.4%) and upper (17.4%) genital tract in this population of pregnant women. U. urealyticum was a persistent coloniser during mid-trimester of pregnancy (in 88% of women colonised) whereas M. hominis, G. vaginalis, and Group B streptococcus were present as transient flora of the lower genital tract. Lower genital tract colonisation during pregnancy was not directly associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. However preterm delivery in afebrile, asymptomatic women, could possibly be associated with chorioamnionitis (four of 16 preterm births). Screening of women with a history of preterm birth may prevent upper genital tract infections and preterm delivery.

The use of hypnosis in labor and delivery : a preliminary study

Self-hypnosis was taught to 87 obstetric patients (HYP) and was not taught to 56 other patients (CNTRL), all delivered by the same family physician, in order to determine whether the use of self-hypnosis by low-risk obstetric patients leads to fewer technologic interventions during their deliveries or greater satisfaction of parturients with their delivery experience or both. The outcomes of the deliveries of these two groups were compared, and the HYP group was compared to 352 low-risk patients delivered by other family physicians at the same hospital (WCH). Questionnaires were mailed postpartum to 156 patients, all delivered by the same family physician, to determine satisfaction with delivery using the Labor and Delivery Satisfaction Index (LADSI). The hypnosis group showed a significant reduction in the number of epidurals (11.4% less than CNTRL and 17.9% less than WCH, p < 0.05) and the use of intravenous lines (18.5% less for both, p < 0.05). The number of episiotomies was significantly less in the HYP group compared to WCH (15.9%, p < 0.05) and 11.5% less when compared to CNTRL. The tear rate was not statistically different. Combined use of the intervention triad (epidural–forceps–episiotomy) was less for HYP than for CNTRL (15.8% less) and WCH (10.2% less, p < 0.05). More deliveries were done in the labor room with HYP than CNTRL (21%, p < 0.05). The second stage was shortened by 10 min (HYP vs CNTRL). Overall satisfaction of HYP and CNTRL patients was similar and generally favorable.

Modulation of LPS-induced chorioamnionitis by ureaplasma parvum in sheep chorioamnionitis in sheep

ABSTRACT Objective: Ureaplasma parvum colonization in the setting of polymicrobial flora is common in women with chorioamnionitis, and is a risk factor for preterm delivery and neonatal morbidity. We hypothesized that ureaplasma colonization of amniotic fluid will modulate chorioamnionitis induced by E.coli lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Methods: Sheep received intra-amniotic (IA) injections of media (control) or live ureaplasma either 7 or 70d before delivery. Another group received IA LPS 2d before delivery. To test for interactions, U.parvum exposed animals were challenged with IA LPS, and delivered 2d later. All animals were delivered preterm at 125±1 day gestation. Results: Both IA ureaplasmas and LPS induced leukocyte infiltration of chorioamnion. LPS greatly increased the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines and myeloperoxidase in leukocytes, while ureaplasmas alone caused modest responses. Interestingly, 7d but not 70d ureaplasma exposure significantly downregulated LPS induced pro-inflammatory cytokines and myeloperoxidase expression in the chorioamnion. Conclusion: U.parvum can suppress LPS induced experimental chorioamnionitis.

Prediction of age at menopause from assessment of ovarian reserve may be improved by using body mass index and smoking status

Objective: Menopause is the consequence of exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. AMH, an indirect hormonal marker of ovarian reserve, has been recently proposed as a predictor for age at menopause. Since BMI and smoking status are relevant independent factors associated with age at menopause we evaluated whether a model including all three of these variables could improve AMH-based prediction of age at menopause. Methods: In the present cohort study, participants were 375 eumenorrheic women aged 19–44 years and a sample of 2,635 Italian menopausal women. AMH values were obtained from the eumenorrheic women. Results: Regression analysis of the AMH data showed that a quadratic function of age provided a good description of these data plotted on a logarithmic scale, with a distribution of residual deviates that was not normal but showed significant leftskewness. Under the hypothesis that menopause can be predicted by AMH dropping below a critical threshold, a model predicting menopausal age was constructed from the AMH regression model and applied to the data on menopause. With the AMH threshold dependent on the covariates BMI and smoking status, the effects of these covariates were shown to be highly significant. Conclusions: In the present study we confirmed the good level of conformity between the distributions of observed and AMH-predicted ages at menopause, and showed that using BMI and smoking status as additional variables improves AMH-based prediction of age at menopause.