Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Uncertainty and innovation in fashion design

Generally speaking, psychologists have suggested three traditional views of how people cope with uncertainty. They are the certainty maximiser, the intuitive statistician-economist and the knowledge seeker (Smithson, 2008). In times of uncertainty, such as the recent global financial crisis, these coping methods often result in innovation in industry. Richards (2003) identifies innovation as different from creativity in that innovation aims to transform and implement rather than simply explore and invent. An examination of the work of iconic fashion designers, through case study and situational analysis, reveals that coping with uncertainty manifests itself in ways that have resulted in innovations in design, marketing methods, production and consumption. In relation to contemporary fashion, where many garments look the same in style, colour, cut and fit (Finn, 2008), the concept of innovation is an important one. This paper explores the role of uncertainty as a driver of innovation in fashion design. A key aspect of seeking knowledge, as a mechanism to cope with this uncertainty, is a return to basics. This is a problem for contemporary fashion designers who are no longer necessarily makers and therefore do not engage with the basic materials and methods of garment construction. In many cases design in fashion has become digital, communicated to an unseen, unknown production team via scanned image and specification alone. The disconnection between the design and the making of garments, as a result of decades of off-shore manufacturing, has limited the opportunity for this return to basics. The authors argue that the role of the fashion designer has become about the final product and as a result there is a lack of innovation in the process of making: in the form, fit and function of fashion garments. They propose that ‘knowledge seeking’ as a result of uncertainty in the fashion industry, in particular through re-examination of the methods of making, could hold the key to a new era of innovation in fashion design.

Interpreting regional frequencies from synchronized phasor measurement in multi-area power systems

In this paper a new approach is proposed for interpreting of regional frequencies in multi machine power systems. The method uses generator aggregation and system reduction based on coherent generators in each area. The reduced system structure is able to be identified and a kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to estimate the inter-area modes using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The proposed method is tested on a six machine, three area test system and the obtained results show the estimation of inter-area oscillations in the system with a high accuracy.

The measurement of applied forces during anterior single rod surgical correction of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

INTRODUCTION. Following anterior thoracoscopic instrumentation and fusion for the treatment of thoracic AIS, implant related complications have been reported as high as 20.8%. Currently the magnitudes of the forces applied to the spine during anterior scoliosis surgery are unknown. The aim of this study was to measure the segmental compressive forces applied during anterior single rod instrumentation in a series of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients. METHODS. A force transducer was designed, constructed and retrofitted to a surgical cable compression tool, routinely used to apply segmental compression during anterior scoliosis correction. Transducer output was continuously logged during the compression of each spinal joint, the output at completion converted to an applied compression force using calibration data. The angle between adjacent vertebral body screws was also measured on intra-operative frontal plane fluoroscope images taken both before and after each joint compression. The difference in angle between the two images was calculated as an estimate for the achieved correction at each spinal joint. RESULTS. Force measurements were obtained for 15 scoliosis patients (Aged 11-19 years) with single thoracic curves (Cobb angles 47˚- 67˚). In total, 95 spinal joints were instrumented. The average force applied for a single joint was 540 N (± 229 N)ranging between 88 N and 1018 N. Experimental error in the force measurement, determined from transducer calibration was ± 43 N. A trend for higher forces applied at joints close to the apex of the scoliosis was observed. The average joint correction angle measured by fluoroscope imaging was 4.8˚ (±2.6˚, range 0˚-12.6˚). CONCLUSION. This study has quantified in-vivo, the intra-operative correction forces applied by the surgeon during anterior single rod instrumentation. This data provides a useful contribution towards an improved understanding of the biomechanics of scoliosis correction. In particular, this data will be used as input for developing patient-specific finite element simulations of scoliosis correction surgery.

Analysis of micro-structural changes and measurement of their parameters of a food material

Food microstructure represents the way their elements arrangement and their interaction. Researchers in this field benefit from identifying new methods of examination of the microstructure and analysing the images. Experiments were undertaken to study micro-structural changes of food material during drying. Micro-structural images were obtained for potato samples of cubical shape at different moisture contents during drying using scanning electron microscopy. Physical parameters such as cell wall perimeter, and area were calculated using an image identification algorithm, based on edge detection and morphological operators. The algorithm was developed using Matlab.

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Super-orbital re-entry in Australia : laboratory measurement, simulation and flight observation

There are large uncertainties in the aerothermodynamic modelling of super-orbital re-entry which impact the design of spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). Aspects of the thermal environment of super-orbital re-entry flows can be simulated in the laboratory using arc- and plasma jet facilities and these devices are regularly used for TPS certification work [5]. Another laboratory device which is capable of simulating certain critical features of both the aero and thermal environment of super-orbital re-entry is the expansion tube, and three such facilities have been operating at the University of Queensland in recent years[10]. Despite some success, wind tunnel tests do not achieve full simulation, however, a virtually complete physical simulation of particular re-entry conditions can be obtained from dedicated flight testing, and the Apollo era FIRE II flight experiment [2] is the premier example which still forms an important benchmark for modern simulations. Dedicated super-orbital flight testing is generally considered too expensive today, and there is a reluctance to incorporate substantial instrumentation for aerothermal diagnostics into existing missions since it may compromise primary mission objectives. An alternative approach to on-board flight measurements, with demonstrated success particularly in the ‘Stardust’ sample return mission, is remote observation of spectral emissions from the capsule and shock layer [8]. JAXA’s ‘Hayabusa’ sample return capsule provides a recent super-orbital reentry example through which we illustrate contributions in three areas: (1) physical simulation of super-orbital re-entry conditions in the laboratory; (2) computational simulation of such flows; and (3) remote acquisition of optical emissions from a super-orbital re entry event.

The probability archive : essence, uncertainty, and the ‘Olduvai imperative.’

Starting from a local problem with finding an archival clip on YouTube, this paper expands to consider the nature of archives in general. It considers the technological, communicative and philosophical characteristics of archives over three historical periods: 1) Modern ‘essence archives’ – museums and galleries organised around the concept of objectivity and realism; 2) Postmodern mediation archives – broadcast TV systems, which I argue were also ‘essence archives,’ albeit a transitional form; and 3) Network or ‘probability archives’ – YouTube and the internet, which are organised around the concept of probability. The paper goes on to argue the case for introducing quantum uncertainty and other aspects of probability theory into the humanities, in order to understand the way knowledge is collected, conserved, curated and communicated in the era of the internet. It is illustrated throughout by reference to the original technological 'affordance' – the Olduvai stone chopping tool.

Measurement and correlates of caregiver self-efficacy amongst family caregivers of persons with dementia living in Shanghai, China

Background: Caring for family members with dementia can be a long-term, burdensome task resulting in physical and emotional distress and impairment. Research has demonstrated significantly lower levels of selfefficacy among family caregivers of people with dementia (CGs) than caregivers of relatives with non-dementia diseases. Intervention studies have also suggested that the mental and physical health of dementia CGs could be improved through the enhancement of their self-efficacy. However, studies are limited in terms of the influences of caregiver self-efficacy on caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life. Of particular note is that there are no studies on the applicability of caregiver self-efficacy in the social context of China. Objective: The purpose of this thesis was to undertake theoretical exploration using Bandura’s (1997) self-efficacy theory to 1) revise the Revised Caregiving Self-Efficacy Scale (C-RCSES) (Steffen, McKibbin, Zeiss, Gallagher-Thompson, & Bandura, 2002), and 2) explore determinants of caregiver self-efficacy and the role of caregiver self-efficacy and other conceptual constructs (including CGs’ socio-demographic characteristics, CRs’ impairment and CGs’ social support) in explaining and predicting caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life among CGs in China. Methodology: Two studies were undertaken: a qualitative elicitation study with 10 CGs; and a cross-sectional survey with 196 CGs. In the first study, semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore caregiver behaviours and corresponding challenges for their performance. The findings of the study assisted in the development of the initial items and domains of the Chinese version of the Revised Caregiving Self-Efficacy Scale (C-RCSES). Following changes to items in the scale, the second study, a cross-sectional survey with 196 CGs was conducted to evaluate the psychometric properties of C-RCSES and to test a hypothesised self-efficacy model of family caregiving adapted from Bandura’s theory (1997). Results: 35 items were generated from the qualitative data. The content validity of the C-RCSES was assessed and ensured in Study One before being used for the cross-sectional survey. Eight items were removed and five subscales (caregiver self-efficacy for gathering information about treatment, symptoms and health care; obtaining support; responding to problematic behaviours; management of household, personal and medical care; and controlling upsetting thoughts about caregiving) were identified after principal component factor analysis on the cross-sectional survey data. The reliability of the scale is acceptable: the Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for the whole scale and for each subscale were all over .80; and the fourweek test-retest reliabilities for the whole scale and for each subscale ranged from .64 to .85. The concurrent, convergent and divergent validity were also acceptable. CGs reported moderate levels of caregiver self-efficacy. Furthermore, the level of self-efficacy for management of household, personal and medical care was relatively high in comparison to those of the other four domains of caregiver self-efficacy. Caregiver self-efficacy was also significantly influenced by CGs’ socio-demographic characteristics and the caregiving external factors (CR impairment and social support that CGs obtained). The level of caregiver behaviour that CGs reported was higher than that reported in other Chinese research. CGs’ socio-demographics significantly influenced caregiver behaviour, whereas caregiver self-efficacy did not influence caregiver behaviour. Regarding the two external factors, CGs who cared for highly impaired relatives reported high levels of caregiver behaviour, but social support did not influence caregiver behaviour. Regarding caregiver subjective burden and health-related quality of life, CGs reported moderate levels of subjective burden, and their level of healthrelated quality of life was significantly lower than that of the general population in China. The findings also indicated that CGs’ subjective burden and health-related quality of life were influenced by all major factors in the hypothesised model, including CGs’ socio-demographics, CRs’ impairment, social support that CGs obtained, caregiver self-efficacy and caregiver behaviour. Of these factors, caregiver self-efficacy and social support significantly improved their subjective burden and health-related quality of life; whereas caregiver behaviour and CRs’ impairment were detrimental to CGs, such as increasing subjective burden and worsening health-related quality of life. Conclusion: While requiring further exploration, the qualitative study was the first qualitative research conducted in China to provide an in-depth understanding of CGs’ caregiving experience, including their major caregiver behaviours and the corresponding challenges. Meanwhile, although the C-RCSES needs further psychometric testing, it is a useful tool for assessing caregiver self-efficacy in Chinese populations. Results of the qualitative and quantitative study provide useful information for future studies regarding the explanatory power of caregiver self-efficacy to caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and health-related quality of life. Additionally, integrated with Bandura’s theory, the findings from the quantitative study also suggested a further study exploring the role of outcome expectations in caregiver behaviour, subjective burden and healthrelated quality of life.

Measurement of total body water (TBW) and total energy expenditure (TEE) using stable isotopes

Understanding the relationship between diet, physical activity and health in humans requires accurate measurement of body composition and daily energy expenditure. Stable isotopes provide a means of measuring total body water and daily energy expenditure under free-living conditions. While the use of isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) for the analysis of 2H (Deuterium) and 18O (Oxygen-18) is well established in the field of human energy metabolism research, numerous questions remain regarding the factors which influence analytical and measurement error using this methodology. This thesis was comprised of four studies with the following emphases. The aim of Study 1 was to determine the analytical and measurement error of the IRMS with regard to sample handling under certain conditions. Study 2 involved the comparison of TEE (Total daily energy expenditure) using two commonly employed equations. Further, saliva and urine samples, collected at different times, were used to determine if clinically significant differences would occur. Study 3 was undertaken to determine the appropriate collection times for TBW estimates and derived body composition values. Finally, Study 4, a single case study to investigate if TEE measures are affected when the human condition changes due to altered exercise and water intake. The aim of Study 1 was to validate laboratory approaches to measure isotopic enrichment to ensure accurate (to international standards), precise (reproducibility of three replicate samples) and linear (isotope ratio was constant over the expected concentration range) results. This established the machine variability for the IRMS equipment in use at Queensland University for both TBW and TEE. Using either 0.4mL or 0.5mL sample volumes for both oxygen-18 and deuterium were statistically acceptable (p>0.05) and showed a within analytical variance of 5.8 Delta VSOW units for deuterium, 0.41 Delta VSOW units for oxygen-18. This variance was used as “within analytical noise” to determine sample deviations. It was also found that there was no influence of equilibration time on oxygen-18 or deuterium values when comparing the minimum (oxygen-18: 24hr; deuterium: 3 days) and maximum (oxygen-18: and deuterium: 14 days) equilibration times. With regard to preparation using the vacuum line, any order of preparation is suitable as the TEE values fall within 8% of each other regardless of preparation order. An 8% variation is acceptable for the TEE values due to biological and technical errors (Schoeller, 1988). However, for the automated line, deuterium must be assessed first followed by oxygen-18 as the automated machine line does not evacuate tubes but merely refills them with an injection of gas for a predetermined time. Any fractionation (which may occur for both isotopes), would cause a slight elevation in the values and hence a lower TEE. The purpose of the second and third study was to investigate the use of IRMS to measure the TEE and TBW of and to validate the current IRMS practices in use with regard to sample collection times of urine and saliva, the use of two TEE equations from different research centers and the body composition values derived from these TEE and TBW values. Following the collection of a fasting baseline urine and saliva sample, 10 people (8 women, 2 men) were dosed with a doubly labeled water does comprised of 1.25g 10% oxygen-18 and 0.1 g 100% deuterium/kg body weight. The samples were collected hourly for 12 hrs on the first day and then morning, midday, and evening samples were collected for the next 14 days. The samples were analyzed using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer. For the TBW, time to equilibration was determined using three commonly employed data analysis approaches. Isotopic equilibration was reached in 90% of the sample by hour 6, and in 100% of the sample by hour 7. With regard to the TBW estimations, the optimal time for urine collection was found to be between hours 4 and 10 as to where there was no significant difference between values. In contrast, statistically significant differences in TBW estimations were found between hours 1-3 and from 11-12 when compared with hours 4-10. Most of the individuals in this study were in equilibrium after 7 hours. The TEE equations of Prof Dale Scholler (Chicago, USA, IAEA) and Prof K.Westerterp were compared with that of Prof. Andrew Coward (Dunn Nutrition Centre). When comparing values derived from samples collected in the morning and evening there was no effect of time or equation on resulting TEE values. The fourth study was a pilot study (n=1) to test the variability in TEE as a result of manipulations in fluid consumption and level of physical activity; the magnitude of change which may be expected in a sedentary adult. Physical activity levels were manipulated by increasing the number of steps per day to mimic the increases that may result when a sedentary individual commences an activity program. The study was comprised of three sub-studies completed on the same individual over a period of 8 months. There were no significant changes in TBW across all studies, even though the elimination rates changed with the supplemented water intake and additional physical activity. The extra activity may not have sufficiently strenuous enough and the water intake high enough to cause a significant change in the TBW and hence the CO2 production and TEE values. The TEE values measured show good agreement based on the estimated values calculated on an RMR of 1455 kcal/day, a DIT of 10% of TEE and activity based on measured steps. The covariance values tracked when plotting the residuals were found to be representative of “well-behaved” data and are indicative of the analytical accuracy. The ratio and product plots were found to reflect the water turnover and CO2 production and thus could, with further investigation, be employed to identify the changes in physical activity.