Older drivers' crashes in Queensland, Australia

Background: The growing proportion of older adults in Australia is predicted to comprise 23% of the population by 2030. Accordingly, an increasing number of older drivers and fatal crashes of these drivers could also be expected. While the cognitive and physiological limitations of ageing and their road safety implications have been widely documented, research has generally considered older drivers as a homogeneous group. Knowledge of age-related crash trends within the older driver group itself is currently limited. Objective: The aim of this research was to identify age-related differences in serious road crashes of older drivers. This was achieved by comparing crash characteristics between older and younger drivers and between sub-groups of older drivers. Particular attention was paid to serious crashes (crashes resulting in hospitalisation and fatalities) as they place the greatest burden on the Australian health system. Method: Using Queensland Crash data, a total of 191,709 crashes of all-aged drivers (17–80+) over a 9-year period were analysed. Crash patterns of drivers’ aged 17–24, 25–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79 and 80+ were compared in terms of crash severity (e.g., fatal), at fault levels, traffic control measures (e.g., stop signs) and road features (e.g., intersections). Crashes of older driver sub-groups (60–69, 70–79, 80+) were also compared to those of middle-aged drivers (40–49 and 50–59 combined, who were identified as the safest driving cohort) with respect to crash-related traffic control features and other factors (e.g., speed). Confounding factors including speed and crash nature (e.g., sideswipe) were controlled for. Results and discussion: Results indicated that patterns of serious crashes, as a function of crash severity, at-fault levels, road conditions and traffic control measures, differed significantly between age groups. As a group, older drivers (60+) represented the greatest proportion of crashes resulting in fatalities and hospitalisation, as well as those involving uncontrolled intersections and failure to give way. The opposite was found for middle-aged drivers, although they had the highest proportion of alcohol and speed-related crashes when compared to older drivers. Among all older drivers, those aged 60–69 were least likely to be involved in or the cause of crashes, but most likely to crash at interchanges and as a result of driving while fatigued or after consuming alcohol. Drivers aged 70–79 represented a mid-range level of crash involvement and culpability, and were most likely to crash at stop and give way signs. Drivers aged 80 years and beyond were most likely to be seriously injured or killed in, and at-fault for, crashes, and had the greatest number of crashes at both conventional and circular intersections. Overall, our findings highlight the heterogeneity of older drivers’ crash patterns and suggest that age-related differences must be considered in measures designed to improve older driver safety.

Residual Soil Properties of South East Queensland

This project sought to investigate parameters of residual soil materials located in South East Queensland (SEQ), as determined from a large number of historical site investigation records. This was undertaken to quantify material parameter variability and to assess the validity of using commonly adopted correlations to estimate "typical" soil parameters for this region. A dataset of in situ and laboratory derived residual soil parameters was constructed and analysed to identify potential correlations that related either to the entire area considered, or to specific residual soils that were derived from a common parent material. The variability of SEQ soil parameters were generally found to be greater than the results of equivalent studies that analysed transported soil dominant datasets. Noteworthy differences in material properties also became evident when residual soils weathered from different parent materials were considered independently. Large variation between the correlations developed for specific soil types was found, which highligted both heterogeneity of the studied materials and the incompatibility of generic correlations to residual soils present in SEQ. Region and parent material specific correlations that estimate shear strength from in situ penetration tests have been proposed for the various residual soil types considered.

Two novel numerical methods for solving the two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo-monodomain model

Fractional mathematical models represent a new approach to modelling complex spatial problems in which there is heterogeneity at many spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, a two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo-monodomain model with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions is considered. The model consists of a coupled space fractional diffusion equation (SFDE) and an ordinary differential equation. For the SFDE, we first consider the numerical solution of the Riesz fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and compare it to the solution of a fractional in space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. We present two novel numerical methods for the two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo-monodomain model using the shifted Grunwald-Letnikov method and the matrix transform method, respectively. Finally, some numerical examples are given to exhibit the consistency of our computational solution methodologies. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the methods.

Gender differences in rumination : a meta-analysis

Starting in adolescence and continuing through adulthood, women are twice as likely as men to experience depression. According to the response styles theory (RST), gender differences in depression result, in part, from women's tendency to ruminate more than men. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate gender differences in rumination in adults (k = 59; N = 14,321); additionally, an analysis of subtypes of rumination - brooding and reflection - was conducted (k = 23). Fixed effects analyses indicated that women scored higher than men in rumination (d = .24, p < .01, SEd = .02), brooding (d = .19, p < .01, SEd = .03) and reflection (d = .17, p < .01, SEd = .03); there was no evidence of heterogeneity or publication bias across studies for these effect sizes. Although statistically significant, the effect sizes for gender differences in rumination were small in magnitude. Results are discussed with respect to the RST and gender differences in depression

Simplified method for including spatial correlations in mean-field approximations

Biological systems involving proliferation, migration and death are observed across all scales. For example, they govern cellular processes such as wound-healing, as well as the population dynamics of groups of organisms. In this paper, we provide a simplified method for correcting mean-field approximations of volume-excluding birth-death-movement processes on a regular lattice. An initially uniform distribution of agents on the lattice may give rise to spatial heterogeneity, depending on the relative rates of proliferation, migration and death. Many frameworks chosen to model these systems neglect spatial correlations, which can lead to inaccurate predictions of their behaviour. For example, the logistic model is frequently chosen, which is the mean-field approximation in this case. This mean-field description can be corrected by including a system of ordinary differential equations for pair-wise correlations between lattice site occupancies at various lattice distances. In this work we discuss difficulties with this method and provide a simplication, in the form of a partial differential equation description for the evolution of pair-wise spatial correlations over time. We test our simplified model against the more complex corrected mean-field model, finding excellent agreement. We show how our model successfully predicts system behaviour in regions where the mean-field approximation shows large discrepancies. Additionally, we investigate regions of parameter space where migration is reduced relative to proliferation, which has not been examined in detail before, and our method is successful at correcting the deviations observed in the mean-field model in these parameter regimes.

The interplay between chondrocyte redifferentiation pellet size and oxygen concentration

Chondrocytes dedifferentiate during ex vivo expansion on 2-dimensional surfaces. Aggregation of the expanded cells into 3-dimensional pellets, in the presence of induction factors, facilitates their redifferentiation and restoration of the chondrogenic phenotype. Typically 1×105–5×105 chondrocytes are aggregated, resulting in “macro” pellets having diameters ranging from 1–2 mm. These macropellets are commonly used to study redifferentiation, and recently macropellets of autologous chondrocytes have been implanted directly into articular cartilage defects to facilitate their repair. However, diffusion of metabolites over the 1–2 mm pellet length-scales is inefficient, resulting in radial tissue heterogeneity. Herein we demonstrate that the aggregation of 2×105 human chondrocytes into micropellets of 166 cells each, rather than into larger single macropellets, enhances chondrogenic redifferentiation. In this study, we describe the development of a cost effective fabrication strategy to manufacture a microwell surface for the large-scale production of micropellets. The thousands of micropellets were manufactured using the microwell platform, which is an array of 360×360 µm microwells cast into polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), that has been surface modified with an electrostatic multilayer of hyaluronic acid and chitosan to enhance micropellet formation. Such surface modification was essential to prevent chondrocyte spreading on the PDMS. Sulfated glycosaminoglycan (sGAG) production and collagen II gene expression in chondrocyte micropellets increased significantly relative to macropellet controls, and redifferentiation was enhanced in both macro and micropellets with the provision of a hypoxic atmosphere (2% O2). Once micropellet formation had been optimized, we demonstrated that micropellets could be assembled into larger cartilage tissues. Our results indicate that micropellet amalgamation efficiency is inversely related to the time cultured as discreet microtissues. In summary, we describe a micropellet production platform that represents an efficient tool for studying chondrocyte redifferentiation and demonstrate that the micropellets could be assembled into larger tissues, potentially useful in cartilage defect repair.

Fractional models for the migration of biological cells in complex spatial domains

Travelling wave phenomena are observed in many biological applications. Mathematical theory of standard reaction-diffusion problems shows that simple partial differential equations exhibit travelling wave solutions with constant wavespeed and such models are used to describe, for example, waves of chemical concentrations, electrical signals, cell migration, waves of epidemics and population dynamics. However, as in the study of cell motion in complex spatial geometries, experimental data are often not consistent with constant wavespeed. Non-local spatial models have successfully been used to model anomalous diffusion and spatial heterogeneity in different physical contexts. In this paper, we develop a fractional model based on the Fisher-Kolmogoroff equation and analyse it for its wavespeed properties, attempting to relate the numerical results obtained from our simulations to experimental data describing enteric neural crest-derived cells migrating along the intact gut of mouse embryos. The model proposed essentially combines fractional and standard diffusion in different regions of the spatial domain and qualitatively reproduces the behaviour of neural crest-derived cells observed in the caecum and the hindgut of mouse embryos during in vivo experiments.

Not all systematic reviews are systematic : a meta-review of the quality of current systematic reviews and meta-analyses for remote monitoring in heart failure

Background/aims: Remote monitoring for heart failure has not only been evaluated in a large number of randomised controlled trials, but also in many systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The aim of this meta-review was to identify, appraise and synthesise existing systematic reviews that have evaluated the effects of remote monitoring in heart failure. Methods: Using a Cochrane methodology, we electronically searched all relevant online databases and search engines, performed a forward citation search as well as hand-searched bibliographies. Only fully published systematic reviews of invasive and/or non-invasive remote monitoring interventions were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Results: Sixty-five publications from 3333 citations were identified. Seventeen fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Quality varied with A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR scores) ranging from 2 to 11 (mean 5.88). Seven reviews (41%) pooled results from individual studies for meta-analysis. Eight (47%) considered all non-invasive remote monitoring strategies. Four (24%) focused specifically on telemonitoring. Four (24%) included studies investigating both non-invasive and invasive technologies. Population characteristics of the included studies were not reported consistently. Mortality and hospitalisations were the most frequently reported outcomes 12 (70%). Only five reviews (29%) reported healthcare costs and compliance. A high degree of heterogeneity was reported in many of the meta-analyses. Conclusions: These results should be considered in context of two negative RCTs of remote monitoring for heart failure that have been published since the meta-analyses (TIM-HF and Tele-HF). However, high quality reviews demonstrated improved mortality, quality of life, reduction in hospitalisations and healthcare costs.

Climatic records over the past 30 ka from temperate Australia – a synthesis from the Oz-INTIMATE workgroup

Temperate Australia sits between the heat engine of the tropics and the cold Southern Ocean, encompassing a range of rainfall regimes and falling under the influence of different climatic drivers. Despite this heterogeneity, broad-scale trends in climatic and environmental change are evident over the past 30 ka. During the early glacial period (∼30–22 ka) and the Last Glacial Maximum (∼22–18 ka), climate was relatively cool across the entire temperate zone and there was an expansion of grasslands and increased fluvial activity in regionally important Murray–Darling Basin. The temperate region at this time appears to be dominated by expanded sea ice in the Southern Ocean forcing a northerly shift in the position of the oceanic fronts and a concomitant influx of cold water along the southeast (including Tasmania) and southwest Australian coasts. The deglacial period (∼18–12 ka) was characterised by glacial recession and eventual disappearance resulting from an increase in temperature deduced from terrestrial records, while there is some evidence for climatic reversals (e.g. the Antarctic Cold Reversal) in high resolution marine sediment cores through this period. The high spatial density of Holocene terrestrial records reveals an overall expansion of sclerophyll woodland and rainforest taxa across the temperate region after ∼12 ka, presumably in response to increasing temperature, while hydrological records reveal spatially heterogeneous hydro-climatic trends. Patterns after ∼6 ka suggest higher frequency climatic variability that possibly reflects the onset of large scale climate variability caused by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Sampling stored-product insect pests : a comparison of four statistical sampling models for probability of pest detection

Background: Developing sampling strategies to target biological pests such as insects in stored grain is inherently difficult owing to species biology and behavioural characteristics. The design of robust sampling programmes should be based on an underlying statistical distribution that is sufficiently flexible to capture variations in the spatial distribution of the target species. Results: Comparisons are made of the accuracy of four probability-of-detection sampling models - the negative binomial model,1 the Poisson model,1 the double logarithmic model2 and the compound model3 - for detection of insects over a broad range of insect densities. Although the double log and negative binomial models performed well under specific conditions, it is shown that, of the four models examined, the compound model performed the best over a broad range of insect spatial distributions and densities. In particular, this model predicted well the number of samples required when insect density was high and clumped within experimental storages. Conclusions: This paper reinforces the need for effective sampling programs designed to detect insects over a broad range of spatial distributions. The compound model is robust over a broad range of insect densities and leads to substantial improvement in detection probabilities within highly variable systems such as grain storage.

Genomic evidence for the parallel evolution of coastal forms in the Senecio lautus complex

Instances of parallel ecotypic divergence where adaptation to similar conditions repeatedly cause similar phenotypic changes in closely related organisms are useful for studying the role of ecological selection in speciation. Here we used a combination of traditional and next generation genotyping techniques to test for the parallel divergence of plants from the Senecio lautus complex, a phenotypically variable groundsel that has adapted to disparate environments in the South Pacific. Phylogenetic analysis of a broad selection of Senecio species showed that members of the S. lautus complex form a distinct lineage that has diversified recently in Australasia. An inspection of thousands of polymorphisms in the genome of 27 natural populations from the S. lautus complex in Australia revealed a signal of strong genetic structure independent of habitat and phenotype. Additionally, genetic differentiation between populations was correlated with the geographical distance separating them, and the genetic diversity of populations strongly depended on geographical location. Importantly, coastal forms appeared in several independent phylogenetic clades, a pattern that is consistent with the parallel evolution of these forms. Analyses of the patterns of genomic differentiation between populations further revealed that adjacent populations displayed greater genomic heterogeneity than allopatric populations and are differentiated according to variation in soil composition. These results are consistent with a process of parallel ecotypic divergence in face of gene flow.

A meta-analysis of pigmentary characteristics, sun sensitivity, freckling and melanocytic nevi and risk of basal cell carcinoma of the skin

Objective: To calculate pooled risk estimates of the association between pigmentary characteristics and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin. Methods: We searched three electronic databases and reviewed the reference lists of the retrieved articles until July 2012 to identify eligible epidemiologic studies. Eligible studies were those published in between 1965 and July 2012 that permitted quantitative assessment of the association between histologically-confirmed BCC and any of the following characteristics: hair colour, eye colour, skin colour, skin phototype, tanning and burning ability, and presence of freckling or melanocytic nevi. We included 29 studies from 2236 initially identified. We calculated summary odds ratios (ORs) using weighted averages of the log OR, using random effects models. Results: We found strongest associations with red hair (OR 2.02; 95% CI: 1.68, 2.44), fair skin colour (OR 2.11; 95% CI: 1.56, 2.86), and having skin that burns and never tans (OR 2.03; 95% CI: 1.73, 2.38). All other factors had weaker but positive associations with BCC, with the exception of freckling of the face in adulthood which showed no association. Conclusions: Although most studies report risk estimates that are in the same direction, there is significant heterogeneity in the size of the estimates. The associations were quite modest and remarkably similar, with ORs between about 1.5 and 2.5 for the highest risk level for each factor. Given the public health impact of BCC, this meta-analysis will make a valuable contribution to our understanding of BCC.

CD4+ tumor infiltrating lymphocytes are prognostic and independent of R-IPI in patients with DLBCL receiving R-CHOP chemo-immunotherapy

Despite the Revised International Prognostic Index's (R-IPI) undoubted utility in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), significant clinical heterogeneity within R-IPI categories persists. Emerging evidence indicates that circulating host immunity is a robust and R-IPI independent prognosticator, most likely reflecting the immune status of the intratumoral microenvironment. We hypothesized that direct quantification of immunity within lymphomatous tissue would better permit stratification within R-IPI categories. We analyzed 122 newly diagnosed consecutive DLBCL patients treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) chemo-immunotherapy. Median follow-up was 4 years. As expected, the R-IPI was a significant predictor of outcome with 5-year overall survival (OS) 87% for very good, 87% for good, and 51% for poor-risk R-IPI scores (P < 0.001). Consistent with previous reports, systemic immunity also predicted outcome (86% OS for high lymphocyte to monocyte ratio [LMR], versus 63% with low LMR, P = 0.01). Multivariate analysis confirmed LMR as independently prognostic. Flow cytometry on fresh diagnostic lymphoma tissue, identified CD4+ T-cell infiltration as the most significant predictor of outcome with ≥23% infiltration dividing the cohort into high and low risk groups with regard to event-free survival (EFS, P = 0.007) and OS (P = 0.003). EFS and OS were independent of the R-IPI and LMR. Importantly, within very good/good R-IPI patients, CD4+ T-cells still distinguished patients with different 5 year OS (high 96% versus low 63%, P = 0.02). These results illustrate the importance of circulating and local intratumoral immunity in DLBCL treated with R-CHOP.

Functional analysis of missense variants in the TRESK (KCNK18) K+ channel

A loss of function mutation in the TRESK K2P potassium channel (KCNK18), has recently been linked with typical familial migraine with aura. We now report the functional characterisation of additional TRESK channel missense variants identified in unrelated patients. Several variants either had no apparent functional effect, or they caused a reduction in channel activity. However, the C110R variant was found to cause a complete loss of TRESK function, yet is present in both sporadic migraine and control cohorts, and no variation in KCNK18 copy number was found. Thus despite the previously identified association between loss of TRESK channel activity and migraine in a large multigenerational pedigree, this finding indicates that a single non-functional TRESK variant is not alone sufficient to cause typical migraine and highlights the genetic complexity of this disorder. Migraine is a common, disabling neurological disorder with a genetic, environmental and in some cases hormonal component. It is characterized by attacks of severe, usually unilateral and throbbing headache, can be accompanied by nausea, vomiting and photophobia and is clinically divided into two main subtypes, migraine with aura (MA) when a migraine is accompanied by transient and reversible focal neurological symptoms and migraine without aura (MO)1. The multifactorial and clinical heterogeneity of the disorder have considerably hindered the identification of common migraine susceptibility genes and most of our current understanding comes from the studies of familial hemiplegic migraine (FHM), a rare monogenic autosomal dominant form of MA2. So far, the three susceptibility genes that have been convincingly identified in FHM families all encode ion channels or transporters: CACNA1A encoding the α1 subunit of the Cav2.1 calcium channel3, SCN1A encoding the Nav1.1 sodium channel4 and ATP1A2 encoding the α2 subunit of the Na+/K+ pump5. It is believed that mutations in these genes may lead to increased efflux of glutamate and potassium in the synapse and thereby cause migraine by rendering the brain more susceptible to cortical spreading depression (CSD)6 which is thought to play a role in initiating a migraine attack7,8. However, these genes have not to date been implicated in common forms of migraine9. Nevertheless, current opinion suggests that typical migraine, like FHM, is also disorder of neuronal excitability, ion homeostasis and neurotransmitter release10,11,12. Mutations in the SLC4A4 gene encoding the sodium-bicarbonate cotransporter NBCe1, have recently been implicated in several different forms of migraine13, and a variety of genes involved in glutamate homeostasis (PGCP, MTDH14 and LRP115) and a cation channel (TRPM8)15 have also recently been implicated in migraine via genome-wide association studies. Ion channels are therefore highly likely to play an important role in the pathogenesis of typical migraine. TRESK (KCNK18), is a member of the two-pore domain (K2P) family of potassium channels involved in the control of cellular electrical excitability16. Regulation of TRESK activity by the calcium-dependent phosphatase calcineurin17, as well as its expression in dorsal root ganglia (DRG)18 and trigeminal ganglia (TG)19,20 has led to a proposed role for this channel in a variety of pain pathways. In a recent study, a frameshift mutation (F139Wfsx24) in TRESK was identified in a large multigenerational pedigree where it co-segregated perfectly with typical MA and a significant genome-wide linkage LOD score of 3.0. Furthermore, functional analysis revealed that this mutation caused a complete loss of TRESK function and that the truncated subunit was also capable of down regulating wild-type channel function. This therefore highlighted KCNK18 as potentially important candidate gene and suggested that TRESK dysfunction might play a possible role in the pathogenesis of familial migraine with visual aura20. Additional screening for KCNK18 mutations in unrelated sporadic migraine and control cohorts also identified a number of other missense variants; R10G, A34V, C110R, S231P and A233V20. The A233V variant was found only in the control cohort, whilst A34V was identified in a single Australian migraine proband for which family samples were not available, but it was not detected in controls. By contrast, the R10G, C110R, and S231P variants were found in both migraineurs and controls in both cohorts. In this study, we have investigated the functional effect of these variants to further probe the potential association of TRESK dysfunction with typical migraine.

Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. Methods: We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. Results: In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/ signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant difference (F = 2.75, P = 0.04) was detected for age of disease onset between the affected misclassified as controls (mean = 36 years) and the other three groups (high, 33.5 years; medium, 33.4 years; low, 33.1 years). Conclusions: The results are consistent with the polygenic model of inheritance. The cumulative genetic risk established using currently available genome-wide association data provides important insights into disease heterogeneity and completeness of current knowledge in MS genetics.