Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Multi-species sequence comparison reveals conservation of ghrelin gene-derived splice variants encoding a truncated ghrelin peptide

The peptide hormone ghrelin is a potent orexigen produced predominantly in the stomach. It has a number of other biological actions, including roles in appetite stimulation, energy balance, the stimulation of growth hormone release and the regulation of cell proliferation. Recently, several ghrelin gene splice variants have been described. Here, we attempted to identify conserved alternative splicing of the ghrelin gene by cross-species sequence comparisons. We identified a novel human exon 2-deleted variant and provide preliminary evidence that this splice variant and in1-ghrelin encode a C-terminally truncated form of the ghrelin peptide, termed minighrelin. These variants are expressed in humans and mice, demonstrating conservation of alternative splicing spanning 90 million years. Minighrelin appears to have similar actions to full-length ghrelin, as treatment with exogenous minighrelin peptide stimulates appetite and feeding in mice. Forced expression of the exon 2-deleted preproghrelin variant mirrors the effect of the canonical preproghrelin, stimulating cell proliferation and migration in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line. This is the first study to characterise an exon 2-deleted preproghrelin variant and to demonstrate sequence conservation of ghrelin gene-derived splice variants that encode a truncated ghrelin peptide. This adds further impetus for studies into the alternative splicing of the ghrelin gene and the function of novel ghrelin peptides in vertebrates.

The effectiveness of the Precautionary Principle in protecting Australia's endangered species

This report is the result of a small-scale experiment looking at improving methods for evaluating environmental laws. The objective in this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of the precautionary principle – an accepted principle of international environmental law – in the context of Australia’s endangered species. Two case studies were selected by our team: the (Great) White Shark and an endangered native Australian plant known as Tylophora Linearis.

Development of type I genetic markers from expressed sequence tags in highly polymorphic species

Expressed sequence tag (EST) databases provide a primary source of nuclear DNA sequences for genetic marker development in non-model organisms. To date, the process has been relatively inefficient for several reasons: - 1) priming site polymorphism in the template leads to inferior or erratic amplification; - 2) introns in the target amplicon are too large and/or numerous to allow effective amplification under standard screening conditions, and; - 3) at least occasionally, a PCR primer straddles an exon–intron junction and is unable to bind to genomic DNA template. The first is only a minor issue for species or strains with low heterozygosity but becomes a significant problem for species with high genomic variation, such as marine organisms with extremely large effective population sizes. Problems arising from unanticipated introns are unavoidable but are most pronounced in intron-rich species, such as vertebrates and lophotrochozoans. We present an approach to marker development in the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas, a highly polymorphic and intron-rich species, which minimizes these problems, and should be applicable to other non-model species for which EST databases are available. Placement of PCR primers in the 3′ end of coding sequence and 3′ UTR improved PCR success rate from 51% to 97%. Almost all (37 of 39) markers developed for the Pacific oyster were polymorphic in a small test panel of wild and domesticated oysters.

Placental infection with Ureaplasma species is associated with histologic chorioamnionitis and adverse outcomes in moderately preterm and late-preterm infants

Objective The human Ureaplasma species are the microbes most frequently isolated from placentae of women who deliver preterm. The role of Ureaplasma species has been investigated in pregnancies at <32 weeks of gestation, but currently no studies have determined the prevalence of ureaplasmas in moderately preterm and late-preterm (hereafter, “moderate/late preterm”) infants, the largest cohort of preterm infants. Methods Women delivering moderate/late preterm infants (n = 477) and their infants/placentae (n = 535) were recruited, and swab specimens of chorioamnion tissue, chorioamnion tissue specimens, and cord blood specimens were obtained at delivery. Swab and tissue specimens were cultured and analyzed by 16S ribosomal RNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the presence of microorganisms, while cord blood specimens were analyzed for the presence of cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors. Results We detected microorganisms in 10.6% of 535 placentae (443 were delivered late preterm and 92 were delivered at term). Significantly, Ureaplasma species were the most prevalent microorganisms, and their presence alone was associated with histologically confirmed chorioamnionitis in moderate/late preterm and term placentae (P < .001). The presence of ureaplasmas in the chorioamnion was also associated with elevated levels of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (P = .02). Conclusions These findings have important implications for infection and adverse pregnancy outcomes throughout gestation and should be of major consideration for obstetricians and neonatologists.

Nomenclatural corrections to Australian species of Cricotopus (Wulp) (Diptera; Chironomidae)

Our attention has been drawn to lapsi and errors in a recent publication in this journal concerning Cricotopus Wulp (Diptera: Chironomidae) (Drayson et al., 2015).

Evaluating the specificity of community injury hospitalization data over time

This study identified the areas of poor specificity in national injury hospitalization data and the areas of improvement and deterioration in specificity over time. A descriptive analysis of ten years of national hospital discharge data for Australia from July 2002-June 2012 was performed. Proportions and percentage change of defined/undefined codes over time was examined. At the intent block level, accidents and assault were the most poorly defined with over 11% undefined in each block. The mechanism blocks for accidents showed a significant deterioration in specificity over time with up to 20% more undefined codes in some mechanisms. Place and activity were poorly defined at the broad block level (43% and 72% undefined respectively). Private hospitals and hospitals in very remote locations recorded the highest proportion of undefined codes. Those aged over 60 years and females had the higher proportion of undefined code usage. This study has identified significant, and worsening, deficiencies in the specificity of coded injury data in several areas. Focal attention is needed to improve the quality of injury data, especially on those identified in this study, to provide the evidence base needed to address the significant burden of injury in the Australian community.

Prey of the silver-headed antechinus (Antechinus argentus), a new species of Australian dasyurid marsupial

The silver-headed antechinus (Antechinus argentus) is one of Australia’s most recently described mammals, and the single known population at Kroombit Tops in south-east Queensland is threatened. Nothing is known of the species’ ecology, so during 2014 we collected faecal pellets each month (March–September) from a population at the type locality to gather baseline data on diet composition. A total of 38 faecal pellets were collected from 12 individuals (eight females, four males) and microscopic analysis of pellets identified seven invertebrate orders, with 70% combined mean composition of beetles (Coleoptera: 38%) and cockroaches (Blattodea: 32%). Other orders that featured as prey were ants, crickets/grasshoppers, butterflies/moths, spiders, and true bugs. Given that faecal pellets could only be collected from a single habitat type (Eucalyptus montivaga high-altitude open forest) and location, this is best described as a generalist insectivorous diet that is characteristic of other previously studied congeners.

Using multi-label classification for acoustic pattern detection and assisting bird species surveys

Acoustics is a rich source of environmental information that can reflect the ecological dynamics. To deal with the escalating acoustic data, a variety of automated classification techniques have been used for acoustic patterns or scene recognition, including urban soundscapes such as streets and restaurants; and natural soundscapes such as raining and thundering. It is common to classify acoustic patterns under the assumption that a single type of soundscapes present in an audio clip. This assumption is reasonable for some carefully selected audios. However, only few experiments have been focused on classifying simultaneous acoustic patterns in long-duration recordings. This paper proposes a binary relevance based multi-label classification approach to recognise simultaneous acoustic patterns in one-minute audio clips. By utilising acoustic indices as global features and multilayer perceptron as a base classifier, we achieve good classification performance on in-the-field data. Compared with single-label classification, multi-label classification approach provides more detailed information about the distributions of various acoustic patterns in long-duration recordings. These results will merit further biodiversity investigations, such as bird species surveys.

Revisiting Coptotermes (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae): a global taxonomic road map for species validity and distribution of an economically important subterranean termite genus

Coptotermes Wasmann (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) is one of the most economically important subterranean termite genera and some species are successful invaders. However, despite its important pest status, the taxonomic validity of many named Coptotermes species remains unclear. In this study, we reviewed all named species within the genus and investigated evidence supporting the validity of each named species. Species were systematically scrutinized according to the region of their original description: Southeast Asia, India, China, Africa, the Neotropics, and Australia. We estimate that of the currently 69 named species described by accepted nomenclatural rules, only 21 taxa have solid evidence for validity, 44 names have uncertain status, and the remaining species names should be synonymized or were made unavailable. Species with high degrees of invasiveness may be known under additional junior synonyms due to independent parochial descriptions. Molecular data for a vast majority of species are scarce and significant effort is needed to complete the taxonomic and phylogenetic revision of the genus. Because of the wide distribution of Coptotermes, we advocate for an integrative taxonomic effort to establish the distribution of each putative species, provide specimens and corresponding molecular data, check original descriptions and type specimens (if available), and provide evidence for a more robust phylogenetic position of each species. This study embodies both consensus and contention of those studying Coptotermes and thus pinpoints the current uncertainty of many species. This project is intended to be a roadmap for identifying those Coptotermes species names that need to be more thoroughly investigated, as an incentive to complete a necessary revision process.

The mating system of the true fruit fly Bactrocera tryoni and its sister-species, Bactrocera neohumeralis

The frugivorous 'true' fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Queensland fruit fly), is presumed to have a non-resourced-based lek mating system. This is largely untested, and contrary data exists to suggest Bactrocera tryoni may have a resource-based mating system focused on fruiting host plants. We tested the mating system of Bactrocera tryoni, and its close sibling Bactrocera neohumeralis, in large field cages using laboratory reared flies. We used observational experiments that allowed us to determine if: - (i) mating pairs were aggregated or non-aggregated; - (ii) mating system was resource or non-resource based; - (iii) flies utilised possible landmarks (tall trees over short) as mate-rendezvous sites, and; - (iv) males called females from male-dominated leks. We recorded nearly 250 Bactrocera tryoni mating pairs across all experiments, revealing that: - (i) mating pairs were aggregated; - (ii) mating nearly always occurred in tall trees over short; - (iii) mating was non-resource based, and; - (iv) that males and females arrived at the mate-rendezvous site together with no evidence that males preceded females. Bactrocera neohumeralis copulations were much more infrequent (only 30 mating pairs in total), but for those pairs there was a similar preference for tall trees and no evidence of a resource-based mating system. Some aspects of Bactrocera tryoni mating behaviour align with theoretical expectations of a lekking system, but others do not. Until evidence for unequivocal female choice can be provided (as predicted under a true lek), the mating system of Bactrocera tryoni is best described as a non-resource based, aggregation system for which we also have evidence that land-marking may be involved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.