Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Association scan of 14,500 nonsynonymous SNPs in four diseases identifies autoimmunity variants

We have genotyped 14,436 nonsynonymous SNPs (nsSNPs) and 897 major histocompatibility complex (MHC) tag SNPs from 1,000 independent cases of ankylosing spondylitis (AS), autoimmune thyroid disease (AITD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and breast cancer (BC). Comparing these data against a common control dataset derived from 1,500 randomly selected healthy British individuals, we report initial association and independent replication in a North American sample of two new loci related to ankylosing spondylitis, ARTS1 and IL23R, and confirmation of the previously reported association of AITD with TSHR and FCRL3. These findings, enabled in part by increased statistical power resulting from the expansion of the control reference group to include individuals from the other disease groups, highlight notable new possibilities for autoimmune regulation and suggest that IL23R may be a common susceptibility factor for the major 'seronegative' diseases.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Cardiovascular diseases and vulnerable plaques: data, modeling, predictions and clinical applications PREFACE

Introduction Two symposia on “cardiovascular diseases and vulnerable plaques” Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. Huge effort has been made in many disciplines including medical imaging, computational modeling, bio- mechanics, bioengineering, medical devices, animal and clinical studies, population studies as well as genomic, molecular, cellular and organ-level studies seeking improved methods for early detection, diagnosis, prevention and treatment of these diseases [1-14]. However, the mechanisms governing the initiation, progression and the occurrence of final acute clinical CVD events are still poorly understood. A large number of victims of these dis- eases who are apparently healthy die suddenly without prior symptoms. Available screening and diagnostic methods are insufficient to identify the victims before the event occurs [8,9]. Most cardiovascular diseases are associated with vulnerable plaques. A grand challenge here is to develop new imaging techniques, predictive methods and patient screening tools to identify vulnerable plaques and patients who are more vulnerable to plaque rupture and associated clinical events such as stroke and heart attack, and recommend proper treatment plans to prevent those clinical events from happening. Articles in this special issue came from two symposia held recently focusing on “Cardio-vascular Diseases and Vulnerable Plaques: Data, Modeling, Predictions and Clinical Applications.” One was held at Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI), Worcester, MA, USA, July 13-14, 2014, right after the 7th World Congress of Biomechanics. This symposium was endorsed by the World Council of Biomechanics, and partially supported by a grant from NIH-National Institute of Biomedical Image and Bioengineering. The other was held at Southeast University (SEU), Nanjing, China, April 18-20, 2014.

Six novel susceptibility Loci for early-onset androgenetic alopecia and their unexpected association with common diseases

Androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is a highly heritable condition and the most common form of hair loss in humans. Susceptibility loci have been described on the X chromosome and chromosome 20, but these loci explain a minority of its heritable variance. We conducted a large-scale meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies for early-onset AGA in 12,806 individuals of European ancestry. While replicating the two AGA loci on the X chromosome and chromosome 20, six novel susceptibility loci reached genome-wide significance (p = 2.62x10(-)(9)-1.01x10(-)(1)(2)). Unexpectedly, we identified a risk allele at 17q21.31 that was recently associated with Parkinson's disease (PD) at a genome-wide significant level. We then tested the association between early-onset AGA and the risk of PD in a cross-sectional analysis of 568 PD cases and 7,664 controls. Early-onset AGA cases had significantly increased odds of subsequent PD (OR = 1.28, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.55, p = 8.9x10(-)(3)). Further, the AGA susceptibility alleles at the 17q21.31 locus are on the H1 haplotype, which is under negative selection in Europeans and has been linked to decreased fertility. Combining the risk alleles of six novel and two established susceptibility loci, we created a genotype risk score and tested its association with AGA in an additional sample. Individuals in the highest risk quartile of a genotype score had an approximately six-fold increased risk of early-onset AGA [odds ratio (OR) = 5.78, p = 1.4x10(-)(8)(8)]. Our results highlight unexpected associations between early-onset AGA, Parkinson's disease, and decreased fertility, providing important insights into the pathophysiology of these conditions.

Shift in disease burden from communicable to non-communicable diseases: Aiming to achieve Universal Health Coverage in Nepal

A major barrier to accessing healthcare services is spending, and the extended time that non-communicable diseases require treatment for means that many people around the world do not have proper access to care. Saval Khanal from Sankalpa Foundation, Nepal, Lennert Veerman and Samantha Hollingworth from the University of Queensland and Lisa Nissen from Queensland University of Technology lay out the results of their study and establish a method to forecast medicine use in Nepal.

AJP clinical update: Eye health

For most people our eyes provide around 80% of the information from our surroundings, and pharmacists are perfectly placed to help consumers maintain good eye health.

Peripheral refraction in 7- and 14-year-old children in central China: The Anyang Childhood Eye Study

Purpose: To determine the distribution of peripheral refraction, including astigmatism, in 7- and 14-year-old Chinese children. Methods: 2134 7-year-old and 1780 14-year-old children were measured with cycloplegic central and horizontal peripheral refraction (15° and 30° at temporal and nasal visual fields). Results: 7- and 14-year-old children included 9 and 594, respectively, with moderate and high myopia (≤−3.0 D), 259 and 831 with low myopia (−2.99 to −0.5 D), 1207 and 305 with emmetropia (−0.49 to +1.0 D), and 659 and 50 with hyperopia (>1.0 D), respectively. Myopic children had relative peripheral hyperopia while hyperopic and emmetropic children had relative peripheral myopia, with greater changes in relative peripheral refraction occurring in the nasal than the temporal visual field. The older group had the greater relative peripheral hyperopia and higher peripheral J180. Both age groups showed positive slopes of J45 across the visual field, with greater slopes in the older group. Conclusions: Myopic children in mainland China have relative peripheral hyperopia while hyperopic and emmetropic children have relative peripheral myopia. Significant differences exist between 7- and 14-year-old children, with the latter showing more relative peripheral hyperopia, greater rate of change in J45 across the visual field, and higher peripheral J180.

Paraxial schematic eye models for 7- and 14-year-old Chinese children

Purpose.: To develop three-surface paraxial schematic eyes with different ages and sexes based on data for 7- and 14-year-old Chinese children from the Anyang Childhood Eye Study. Methods.: Six sets of paraxial schematic eyes, including 7-year-old eyes, 7-year-old male eyes, 7-year-old female eyes, 14-year-old eyes, 14-year-old male eyes, and 14-year-old female eyes, were developed. Both refraction-dependent and emmetropic eye models were developed, with the former using linear dependence of ocular parameters on refraction. Results.: A total of 2059 grade 1 children (boys 58%) and 1536 grade 8 children (boys 49%) were included, with mean age of 7.1 ± 0.4 and 13.7 ± 0.5 years, respectively. Changes in these schematic eyes with aging are increased anterior chamber depth, decreased lens thickness, increased vitreous chamber depth, increased axial length, and decreased lens equivalent power. Male schematic eyes have deeper anterior chamber depth, longer vitreous chamber depth, longer axial length, and lower lens equivalent power than female schematic eyes. Changes in the schematic eyes with positive increase in refraction are decreased anterior chamber depth, increased lens thickness, decreased vitreous chamber depth, decreased axial length, increased corneal radius of curvature, and increased lens power. In general, the emmetropic schematic eyes have biometric parameters similar to those arising from regression fits for the refraction-dependent schematic eyes. Conclusions.: The paraxial schematic eyes of Chinese children may be useful for myopia research and for facilitating comparison with other children with the same or different racial backgrounds and living in different places.

Editorial: Measuring refractive index distribution in the human eye lens

Non-invasive measurements of the age dependence of refractive index distribution in human eye lenses in vitro using a novel X-ray Talbot Interferometry method. In their paper, the authors make frequent reference to our own work in which we employed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to make similar non-invasive measurements of the refractive index distribution in the human eye lens [2, 3]. Prior to the current work, ours was the only method for making such measurements both non-invasively and without prior assumptions about the shape of the refractive index distribution. For this reason, the latest work is to be welcomed. However at several points in the paper, Pierscionek et al. [1] make statements about our technique which are factually incorrect...

Light exposure and eye growth in childhood

PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between objectively measured ambient light exposure and longitudinal changes in axial eye growth in childhood. METHODS A total of 101 children (41 myopes and 60 nonmyopes), 10 to 15 years of age participated in this prospective longitudinal observational study. Axial eye growth was determined from measurements of ocular optical biometry collected at four study visits over an 18-month period. Each child’s mean daily light exposure was derived from two periods (each 14 days long) of objective light exposure measurements from a wrist-worn light sensor. RESULTS Over the 18-month study period, a modest but statistically significant association between greater average daily light exposure and slower axial eye growth was observed (P ¼ 0.047). Other significant predictors of axial eye growth in this population included children’s refractive error group (P < 0.001), sex (P < 0.01), and age (P < 0.001). Categorized according to their objectively measured average daily light exposure and adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, baseline axial length, parental myopia, nearwork, and physical activity), children experiencing low average daily light exposure (mean daily light exposure: 459 6 117 lux, annual eye growth: 0.13 mm/y) exhibited significantly greater eye growth than children experiencing moderate (842 6 109 lux, 0.060 mm/y), and high (1455 6 317 lux, 0.065 mm/y) average daily light exposure levels (P ¼ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS In this population of children, greater daily light exposure was associated with less axial eye growth over an 18-month period. These findings support the role of light exposure in the documented association between time spent outdoors and childhood myopia.

Longitudinal changes in choroidal thickness and eye growth in childhood

PURPOSE To examine longitudinal changes in choroidal thickness and axial length in a population of children with a range of refractive errors. METHODS One hundred and one children (41 myopes and 60 nonmyopes) aged 10 to 15 years participated in this prospective, observational longitudinal study. For each child, 6-month measures of choroidal thickness (using enhanced depth imaging optical coherence tomography) and axial ocular biometry were collected four times over an 18-month period. Linear mixed-models were used to examine the longitudinal changes in choroidal thickness and the relationship between changes in choroidal thickness and axial eye growth over the study period. RESULTS A significant group mean increase in subfoveal choroidal thickness was observed over 18 months (mean increase 13 6 22 lm, P < 0.001). Myopic children exhibited significantly thinner choroids compared with nonmyopic children (P < 0.001), although there was no significant time by refractive group interaction (P ¼ 0.46), indicating similar changes in choroidal thickness over time in myopes and nonmyopes. However, a significant association between the change in choroidal thickness and the change in axial length over time was found (P < 0.001, β = −0.14). Children showing faster axial eye growth exhibited significantly less choroidal thickening over time compared with children showing slower axial eye growth. CONCLUSIONS A significant increase in choroidal thickness occurs over an 18-month period in normal 10- to 15-year-old children. Children undergoing faster axial eye growth exhibited less thickening and, in some cases, a thinning of the choroid. These findings support a potential role for the choroid in the mechanisms regulating eye growth in childhood.

Ambient light exposure influences childhood eye growth

• Although there is evidence that outdoor activity is an important factor involved in the development of childhood refractive error,1,2 the mechanism underlying the association between more outdoor activity and less myopia in childhood is not clear. • In this prospective longitudinal study, the relationship between objectively measured ambient light exposure and eye growth in childhood was examined.

Risk assessment for airborne infectious diseases between natural ventilation and split-system air conditioner in a university classroom

Indoor air quality is a critical factor in the classroom due to high people concentration in a unique space. Indoor air pollutant might increase the chance of both long and short-term health problems among students and staff, reduce the productivity of teachers and degrade the student’s learning environment and comfort. Adequate air distribution strategies may reduce risk of infection in classroom. So, the purpose of air distribution systems in a classroom is not only to maximize conditions for thermal comfort, but also to remove indoor contaminants. Natural ventilation has the potential to play a significant role in achieving improvements in IAQ. The present study compares the risk of airborne infection between Natural Ventilation (opening windows and doors) and a Split-System Air Conditioner in a university classroom. The Wells-Riley model was used to predict the risk of indoor airborne transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza, measles and tuberculosis. For each case, the air exchange rate was measured using a CO2 tracer gas technique. It was found that opening windows and doors provided an air exchange rate of 2.3 air changes/hour (ACH), while with the Split System it was 0.6 ACH. The risk of airborne infection ranged between 4.24 to 30.86 % when using the Natural Ventilation and between 8.99 to 43.19% when using the Split System. The difference of airborne infection risk between the Split System and the Natural Ventilation ranged from 47 to 56%. Opening windows and doors maximize Natural Ventilation so that the risk of airborne contagion is much lower than with Split System.

The Use of Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in the Treatment of Diseases of the Cornea

As a key component of the ocular surface required for vision, the cornea has been extensively studied as a site for cell and tissue-based therapies. Historically, these treatments have consisted of donor corneal tissue transplants, but cultivated epithelial autografts have become established over the last 15 years as a routine treatment for ocular surface disease. Ultimately, these treatments are performed with the intention of restoring corneal transparency and a smooth ocular surface. The degree of success, however, is often dependent upon the inherent level of corneal inflammation at time of treatment. In this regard, the anti-inflammatory and immuno-modulatory properties of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) have drawn attention to these cells as potential therapeutic agents for corneal repair. The origins for MSC-based therapies are founded in part on observations of the recruitment of endogenous bone marrow-derived cells to injured corneas, however, an increasing quantity of data is emerging for MSC administered following their isolation and ex vivo expansion from a variety of tissues including bone marrow, adipose tissue, umbilical cord and dental pulp. In brief, evidence has emerged of cultured MSC, or their secreted products, having a positive impact on corneal wound healing and retention of corneal allografts in animal models. Optimal dosage, route of administration and timing of treatment, however, all remain active areas of investigation. Intriguingly, amidst these studies, have emerged reports of MSC transdifferentiation into corneal cells. Clearest evidence has been obtained with respect to expression of markers associated with the phenotype of corneal stromal cells. In contrast, the evidence for MSC conversion to corneal epithelial cell types remains inconclusive. In any case, the conversion of MSC into corneal cells seems unlikely to be an essential requirement for their clinical use. This field of research has recently become more complicated by reports of MSC-like properties for cultures established from the peripheral corneal stroma (limbal stroma). The relationship and relative value of corneal-MSC compared to traditional sources of MSC such as bone marrow are at present unclear. This chapter is divided into four main parts. After providing a concise overview of corneal structure and function, we will highlight the types of corneal diseases that are likely to benefit from the anti-inflammatory and immuno-modulatory properties of MSC. We will subsequently summarize the evidence supporting the case for MSC-based therapies in the treatment of corneal diseases. In the third section we will review the literature concerning the keratogenic potential of MSC. Finally, we will review the more recent literature indicating the presence of MSC-like cells derived from corneal tissue.