Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of interventions relevant for young offenders with mood disorders, anxiety disorders, or self-harm

Background: Mood and anxiety disorders, and problems with self harm are significant and serious issues that are common in young people in the Criminal Justice System. Aims: To examine whether interventions relevant to young offenders with mood or anxiety disorders, or problems with self harm are effective. Method: Systematic review and meta-analysis of data from randomised controlled trials relevant to young offenders experiencing these problems. Results: An exhaustive search of the worldwide literature (published and unpublished)yielded 10 studies suitable for inclusion in this review. Meta-analysis of data from three studies (with a total population of 171 individuals) revealed that group-based Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT) may help to reduce symptoms of depression in young offenders. Conclusions: These preliminary findings suggest that group-based CBT may be useful for young offenders with such mental health problems, but larger high quality RCTs are now needed to bolster the evidence-base.