Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

Studies on Plant Demography: Ranunculus Repens L., R. Bulbosus L. and R. Acris L.: III. A Mathematical Model Incorporating Multiple Modes of Reproduction

This paper presents a comparative population dynamics study of three closely related species of buttercups (Ranunculus repens, R. acris, and R. bulbosus). The study is based on an investigation of the behaviour of the seeds in soil under field conditions and a continuous monitoring of survival and reproduction of some 9000 individual plants over a period of 21/2 years in a coastal grassland in North Wales. The data were analysed with the help of an extension of Leslie's matrix method which makes possible an simultaneous treatment of vegetative and sexual reproduction. It was found that R. repens (a) depends more heavily on vegetative as compared with sexual reproduction, (b) shows indications of negatively density-dependent population regulation, and (c) exhibits little variation in population growth rates from site to site and from one year to the next. In contrast, R. bulbosus (a) depends exclusively on sexual reproduction, (b) shows indications of a positively density-dependent population behaviour, and (c) exhibits great variation in population growth rates from site to site and from one year to the next. R. acris exhibits an intermediate behaviour in all these respects. It is suggested that the attributes of R. repens are those expected of a species inhabiting a stable environment, while R. bulbosus exhibits some of the characteristics of a fugitive species.

Photophysics of conjugated polymers: interplay between Forster energy migration and defect concentration in shaping a photochemical funnel in PPV

Recent single molecule experiments have suggested the existence of a photochemical funnel in the photophysics of conjugated polymers, like poly[2-methoxy-5-(2'-ethylhexyl)oxy-1,4-phenylenevinylene] (MEH-PPV). The funnel is believed to be a consequence of the presence of conformational or chemical defects along the polymer chain and efficient non-radiative energy transfer among different chromophore segments. Here we address the effect of the excitation energy dynamics on the photophysics of PPV. The PPV chain is modeled as a polymer with the length distribution of chromophores given either by a Gaussian or by a Poisson distribution. We observe that the Poisson distribution of the segment lengths explains the photophysics of PPV better than the Gaussian distribution. A recently proposed version of an extended particle-in-a-box' model is used to calculate the exciton energies and the transition dipole moments of the chromophores, and a master equation to describe the excitation energy transfer among different chromophores. The rate of energy transfer is assumed to be given here, as a first approximation, by the well-known Forster expression. The observed excitation population dynamics confirms the photochemical funneling of excitation energy from shorter to longer chromophores of the polymer chain. The time scale of spectral shift and energy transfer for our model polymer, with realistic values of optical parameters, is in the range of 200-300 ps. We find that the excitation energy may not always migrate towards the longest chromophore segments in the polymer chain as the efficiency of energy transfer between chromophores depends on the separation distance between the two and their relative orientation.

Ribavirin-Induced Anemia in Hepatitis C Virus Patients Undergoing Combination Therapy

The current standard of care for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection - combination therapy with pegylated interferon and ribavirin - elicits sustained responses in only similar to 50% of the patients treated. No alternatives exist for patients who do not respond to combination therapy. Addition of ribavirin substantially improves response rates to interferon and lowers relapse rates following the cessation of therapy, suggesting that increasing ribavirin exposure may further improve treatment response. A key limitation, however, is the toxic side-effect of ribavirin, hemolytic anemia, which often necessitates a reduction of ribavirin dosage and compromises treatment response. Maximizing treatment response thus requires striking a balance between the antiviral and hemolytic activities of ribavirin. Current models of viral kinetics describe the enhancement of treatment response due to ribavirin. Ribavirin-induced anemia, however, remains poorly understood and precludes rational optimization of combination therapy. Here, we develop a new mathematical model of the population dynamics of erythrocytes that quantitatively describes ribavirin-induced anemia in HCV patients. Based on the assumption that ribavirin accumulation decreases erythrocyte lifespan in a dose-dependent manner, model predictions capture several independent experimental observations of the accumulation of ribavirin in erythrocytes and the resulting decline of hemoglobin in HCV patients undergoing combination therapy, estimate the reduced erythrocyte lifespan during therapy, and describe inter-patient variations in the severity of ribavirin-induced anemia. Further, model predictions estimate the threshold ribavirin exposure beyond which anemia becomes intolerable and suggest guidelines for the usage of growth hormones, such as erythropoietin, that stimulate erythrocyte production and avert the reduction of ribavirin dosage, thereby improving treatment response. Our model thus facilitates, in conjunction with models of viral kinetics, the rational identification of treatment protocols that maximize treatment response while curtailing side effects.

The foraging ecology of dhole (Cuon alpinus) in Mudumalai Sanctuary, southern India

Two dhole (Cuon alpinus) packs were monitored in Mudumalai Sanctuary, southern India, during 1989-93 to look at population dynamics, movement pattern, and foraging strategy and their inter-relationship with the maintenance of social groups. Pack size fluctuated substantially (4-18 and 4-25 in the two packs) owing to dispersal and demographic factors such as females not breeding in a given year. Both packs killed a much higher proportion of chital (Axis axis) and sambar (Cervus unicolor) fawns (< one year old) than their availability in the population. There was no correlation between pack size and body weight of prey killed, while per capita consumption of meat declined with increasing pack size. Home-range area (83.3 km(2) and 54.2 km(2) for the two packs) was not correlated with pack size. Pack movement from one resource patch (consisting of resting sites and aggregations of prey species) to another was not random or based on factors such as inter-patch distance or relative prey densities. There was no difference in mean residence time of the pack across the four resource patches; the pack moved across these in a sequential manner in one direction. We conclude that dholes live in groups not because of any advantages accruing from enhanced group sizes through increased per capita yield of food, but as a consequence of the dispersion of resources.

On an exact populationary model of genetic algorithms

Genetic algorithms (GAs) are search methods that are being employed in a multitude of applications with extremely large search spaces. Recently, there has been considerable interest among GA researchers in understanding and formalizing the working of GAs. In an earlier paper, we have introduced the notion of binomially distributed populations as the central idea behind an exact ''populationary'' model of the large-population dynamics of the GA operators for objective functions called ''functions of unitation.'' In this paper, we extend this populationary model of GA dynamics to a more general class of objective functions called functions of unitation variables. We generalize the notion of a binomially distributed population to a generalized binomially distributed population (GBDP). We show that the effects of selection, crossover, and mutation can be exactly modelled after decomposing the population into GBDPs. Based on this generalized model, we have implemented a GA simulator for functions of two unitation variables-GASIM 2, and the distributions predicted by GASIM 2 match with those obtained from actual GA runs. The generalized populationary model of GA dynamics not only presents a novel and natural way of interpreting the workings of GAs with large populations, but it also provides for an efficient implementation of the model as a GA simulator. (C) Elsevier Science Inc. 1997.

Influence of recombination on acquisition and reversion of immune escape and compensatory mutations in HIV-1

Following transmission, HIV-1 adapts in the new host by acquiring mutations that allow it to escape from the host immune response at multiple epitopes. It also reverts mutations associated with epitopes targeted in the transmitting host but not in the new host. Moreover, escape mutations are often associated with additional compensatory mutations that partially recover fitness costs. It is unclear whether recombination expedites this process of multi-locus adaptation. To elucidate the role of recombination, we constructed a detailed population dynamics model that integrates viral dynamics, host immune response at multiple epitopes through cytotoxic T lymphocytes, and viral evolution driven by mutation, recombination, and selection. Using this model, we compute the expected waiting time until the emergence of the strain that has gained escape and compensatory mutations against the new host's immune response, and reverted these mutations at epitopes no longer targeted. We find that depending on the underlying fitness landscape, shaped by both costs and benefits of mutations, adaptation proceeds via distinct dominant pathways with different effects of recombination, in particular distinguishing escape and reversion. When adaptation at a single epitope is involved, recombination can substantially accelerate immune escape but minimally affects reversion. When multiple epitopes are involved, recombination can accelerate or inhibit adaptation depending on the fitness landscape. Specifically, recombination tends to delay adaptation when a purely uphill fitness landscape is accessible at each epitope, and accelerate it when a fitness valley is associated with each epitope. Our study points to the importance of recombination in shaping the adaptation of HIV-1 following its transmission to new hosts, a process central to T cell-based vaccine strategies. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license.