Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon

Under the project `Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Monsoon' (SPIM), the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by five atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) during 1985-2004 was assessed. The project was a collaborative effort of the coordinators and scientists from the different modelling groups across the country. All the runs were made at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) at Bangalore on the PARAM Padma supercomputing system. Two sets of simulations were made for this purpose. In the first set, the AGCMs were forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) for May-September during 1985-2004. In the second set, runs were made for 1987, 1988, 1994, 1997 and 2002 forced by SST which was obtained by assuming that the April anomalies persist during May-September. The results of the first set of runs show, as expected from earlier studies, that none of the models were able to simulate the correct sign of the anomaly of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for all the years. However, among the five models, one simulated the correct sign in the largest number of years and the second model showed maximum skill in the simulation of the extremes (i.e. droughts or excess rainfall years). The first set of runs showed some common bias which could arise either from an excessive sensitivity of the models to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or an inability of the models to simulate the link of the Indian monsoon rainfall to Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), or both. Analysis of the second set of runs showed that with a weaker ENSO forcing, some models could simulate the link with EQUINOO, suggesting that the errors in the monsoon simulations with observed SST by these models could be attributed to unrealistically high sensitivity to ENSO.

Molecular and serological studies on the recent seal virus epizootics in Europe and Siberia

The virus epizootics which occurred in seals in both Europe and Siberia during 1987/1988 were caused by two different morbillivirus, referred to as phocid distemper virus (PDV) 1 and 2, respectively. Molecular and serological studies have shown that the European virus is quite distinct from canine distemper virus (CDV), its closest relative in the morbillivirus group. Analysis of tissues obtained from infected seals from a wide geographical distrubution over Northern Europe showed that the infectious agent (PDV 1) was identical in all cases. Nucleotide sequence analysis of one of the virus genes suggested that this virus has evolved away from CDV over a long time period and is most probably an enzootic virus of marine mammals. In contrast, the virus (PDV 2) which caused the deaths of many Siberian seals was indistinguishable, both serologically and at the molecular level, from CDV and must have originated from a land source.