A hybrid nine-level inverter for IM drive

This paper proposes a new hybrid nine-level inverter topology for IM drive. The nine-level structure is realized by using two three-phase two-level inverters fed by isolated DC voltage sources and six H-bridges fed by capacitors. The number of switches required in this topology is only 36 where as the conventional nine-level topologies require 48 switches. The voltages across the capacitors, feeding the H-bridges that operate at asymmetric voltages, are effectively balanced by making use of the switching state redundancies. In this topology, the requirement of DC link voltage is only half of the maximum magnitude of the voltage space vector. As the two-level inverters are powered by isolated voltage sources, the circulation of triplen harmonic current in the motor winding is prevented. The proposed drive system is capable of functioning in three-level mode in case of any switch failure in H-bridges. The performance of the proposed topology in the entire modulation range is verified by simulation study and experiment.

Multi-scale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon

Following the seminal work of Charney and Shukla (198 1), the tropical climate is recognised to be more predictable than extra tropical climate as it is largely forced by 'external' slowly varying forcing and less sensitive to initial conditions. However, the Indian summer monsoon is an exception within the tropics where 'internal' low frequency (LF) oscillations seem to make significant contribution to its interannual variability (IAV) and makes it sensitive to initial conditions. Quantitative estimate of contribution of 'internal' dynamics to IAV of Indian monsoon is made using long experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and through analysis of long daily observations. Both AGCM experiments and observations indicate that more than 50% of IAV of the monsoon is contributed by 'internal' dynamics making the predictable signal (external component) burried in unpredictable noise (internal component) of comparable amplitude. Better understanding of the nature of the 'internal' LF variability is crucial for any improvement in predicition of seasonal mean monsoon. Nature of 'internal' LF variability of the monsoon and mechanism responsible for it are investigated and shown that vigorous monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) with time scale between 10-70 days are primarily responsible for generating the 'internal' IAV. The monsoon ISO's do this through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances (1-7 day time scale) on one hand and the annual cycle on the other. The spatial structure of the monsoon ISO's is similar to that of the seasonal mean. It is shown that frequency of occurance of strong (weak) phases of the ISO is different in different seasons giving rise to stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. Change in the large scale circulation during strong (weak) phases of the ISO make it favourable (inhibiting) for cyclogenesis and gives rise to space time clustering of synoptic activity. This process leads to enhanced (reduced) rainfall in seasons of higher frequency of occurence strong (weak) phases of monsoon ISO.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

Solar dynamo models with realistic internal rotation

Solar dynamo models based on differential rotation inferred from helioseismology tend to produce rather strong magnetic activity at high solar latitudes, in contrast to the observed fact that sunspots appear at low latitudes. We show that a meridional circulation penetrating below the tachocline can solve this problem.

Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols

Black carbon aerosols absorb solar radiation and decrease planetary albedo, and thus can contribute to climate warming. In this paper, the dependence of equilibrium climate response on the altitude of black carbon is explored using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The simulations model aerosol direct and semi-direct effects, but not indirect effects. Aerosol concentrations are prescribed and not interactive. It is shown that climate response of black carbon is highly dependent on the altitude of the aerosol. As the altitude of black carbon increases, surface temperatures decrease; black carbon near the surface causes surface warming, whereas black carbon near the tropopause and in the stratosphere causes surface cooling. This cooling occurs despite increasing planetary absorption of sunlight (i.e. decreasing planetary albedo). We find that the trend in surface air temperature response versus the altitude of black carbon is consistent with our calculations of radiative forcing after the troposphere, stratosphere, and land surface have undergone rapid adjustment, calculated as ``regressed'' radiative forcing. The variation in climate response from black carbon at different altitudes occurs largely from different fast climate responses; temperature dependent feedbacks are not statistically distinguishable. Impacts of black carbon at various altitudes on the hydrological cycle are also discussed; black carbon in the lowest atmospheric layer increases precipitation despite reductions in solar radiation reaching the surface, whereas black carbon at higher altitudes decreases precipitation.

Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against similar to 0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); similar to 60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and similar to 40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our similar to 100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Study of Fluid Flow and Mixing Behaviour of a Vacuum Degasser

In recent times the demand of ultra-low carbon steel (ULCS) with improved mechanical properties such as good ductility and good workability has been increased as it is used to produce cold-rolled steel sheets for automobiles. For producing ULCS efficiently, it is necessary to improve the productivity of the vacuum degassers such as RH, DH and tank degasser. Recently, it has been claimed that using a new process, called REDA (revolutionary degassing activator), one can achieve the carbon content below 10 ppm in less time. As such, REDA process has not been studied thoroughly in terms of fluid flow and mass transfer which is a necessary precursor to understand and design this process. Therefore, momentum and mass transfer of the process has been studied by solving momentum and species balance equations along with k-epsilon turbulent model in two-dimension (2D) for REDA process. Similarly, computational fluid dynamic studies have been made in 2D for tank and RH degassers to compare them with REDA process. Computational results have been validated with published experimental and theoretical data. It is found that REDA process is the most efficient among all these processes in terms of mixing efficiency. Fluid flow phenomena have been studied in details for REDA process by varying gas flow rate, depth of immersed snorkel in the steel, diameter of the snorkel and change in vacuum pressure. It is found that design of snorkel affects the melt circulation in the bath significantly.

Climate change induced risk in water quality control problems

A modeling framework is presented in this paper, integrating hydrologic scenarios projected from a General Circulation Model (GCM) with a water quality simulation model to quantify the future expected risk. Statistical downscaling with a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is carried out to develop the future scenarios of hydro-climate variables starting with simulations provided by a GCM. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) is used to quantify the risk of Low Water Quality (LWQ) corresponding to a threshold quality level, by considering the streamflow and water temperature as explanatory variables. An Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) presented in an earlier study is then used to develop adaptive policies to address the projected water quality risks. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river in India. The results showed that the projected changes in the hydro-climate variables tend to diminish DO levels, thus increasing the future risk levels of LWQ. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

How good are the simulations of tropical SST-rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)-rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST-rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST-rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.

Dynamo models of grand minima

Since a universally accepted dynamo model of grand minima does not exist at the present time, we concentrate on the physical processes which may be behind the grand minima. After summarizing the relevant observational data, we make the point that, while the usual sources of irregularities of solar cycles may be sufficient to cause a grand minimum, the solar dynamo has to operate somewhat differently from the normal to bring the Sun out of the grand minimum. We then consider three possible sources of irregularities in the solar dynamo: (i) nonlinear effects; (ii) fluctuations in the poloidal field generation process; (iii) fluctuations in the meridional circulation. We conclude that (i) is unlikely to be the cause behind grand minima, but a combination of (ii) and (iii) may cause them. If fluctuations make the poloidal field fall much below the average or make the meridional circulation significantly weaker, then the Sun may be pushed into a grand minimum.

Cumulus clouds and convective boundary layers: a tropical perspective on two turbulent shear flows

This paper is a review prepared for the second Marseille Colloquium on the mechanics of turbulence, held in 2011, 50 years after the first. The review covers recent developments in our understanding of the large-scale dynamics of cumulus cloud flows and of the atmospheric boundary layer in the low-wind convective regime that is often encountered in the tropics. It has recently been shown that a variety of cumulus cloud forms and life cycles can be experimentally realized in the laboratory, with the transient diabatic plume taken as the flow model for a cumulus cloud. The plume is subjected to diabatic heating scaled to be dynamically similar to heat release from phase changes in clouds. The experiments are complemented by exact numerical solutions of the Navier-Stokes-Boussinesq equations for plumes with scaled off-source heating. The results show that the Taylor entrainment coefficient first increases with heating, reaches a positive maximum and then drops rapidly to zero or even negative values. This reduction in entrainment is a consequence of structural changes in the flow, smoothing out the convoluted boundaries in the non-diabatic plume, including the tongues engulfing the ambient flow. This is accompanied by a greater degree of mixedness in the core flow because of lower dilution by the ambient fluid. The cloud forms generated depend strongly on the history of the diabatic heating profile in the vertical direction. The striking effects of heating on the flow are attributable to the operation of the baroclinic torque due to the temperature field. The mean baroclinic torque is shown to peak around a quasi-cylindrical sheet situated midway between the axis of the flow and the edges. This torque is shear-enhancing and folds down the engulfment tongues. The increase in mixedness can be traced to an explosive growth in the enstrophy, triggered by a strong fluctuating baroclinic torque that acts as a source, especially at the higher wave numbers, thus enhancing the mixedness. In convective boundary layers field measurements show that, under conditions prevailing in the tropics, the eddy fluxes of momentum and energy do not follow the Monin-Obukhov similarity. Instead, the eddy momentum flux is found to be linear in the wind speed at low winds; and the eddy heat flux is, to a first approximation, governed by free convection laws, with wind acting as a small perturbation on a regime of free convection. A new boundary layer code, based on heat flux scaling rather than wall-stress scaling, shows promising improvements in predictive skills of a general circulation model.

Origin of grand minima in Sunspot cycles

One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes (C-14 and Be-10) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11 000 yrs, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question of how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and in the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of the last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima.