Radiative transfer, interception and scattering in coniferous forests : models and applications for production ecology and remote sensing

This work develops methods to account for shoot structure in models of coniferous canopy radiative transfer. Shoot structure, as it varies along the light gradient inside canopy, affects the efficiency of light interception per unit needle area, foliage biomass, or foliage nitrogen. The clumping of needles in the shoot volume also causes a notable amount of multiple scattering of light within coniferous shoots. The effect of shoot structure on light interception is treated in the context of canopy level photosynthesis and resource use models, and the phenomenon of within-shoot multiple scattering in the context of physical canopy reflectance models for remote sensing purposes. Light interception. A method for estimating the amount of PAR (Photosynthetically Active Radiation) intercepted by a conifer shoot is presented. The method combines modelling of the directional distribution of radiation above canopy, fish-eye photographs taken at shoot locations to measure canopy gap fraction, and geometrical measurements of shoot orientation and structure. Data on light availability, shoot and needle structure and nitrogen content has been collected from canopies of Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Shoot structure acclimated to light gradient inside canopy so that more shaded shoots have better light interception efficiency. Light interception efficiency of shoots varied about two-fold per needle area, about four-fold per needle dry mass, and about five-fold per nitrogen content. Comparison of fertilized and control stands of Norway spruce indicated that light interception efficiency is not greatly affected by fertilization. Light scattering. Structure of coniferous shoots gives rise to multiple scattering of light between the needles of the shoot. Using geometric models of shoots, multiple scattering was studied by photon tracing simulations. Based on simulation results, the dependence of the scattering coefficient of shoot from the scattering coefficient of needles is shown to follow a simple one-parameter model. The single parameter, termed the recollision probability, describes the level of clumping of the needles in the shoot, is wavelength independent, and can be connected to previously used clumping indices. By using the recollision probability to correct for the within-shoot multiple scattering, canopy radiative transfer models which have used leaves as basic elements can use shoots as basic elements, and thus be applied for coniferous forests. Preliminary testing of this approach seems to explain, at least partially, why coniferous forests appear darker than broadleaved forests in satellite data.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.