3 resultados para predictive value

em Glasgow Theses Service


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Colorectal cancer is a common, age-associated disease with significant comorbidity and mortality. Biomarkers of ageing may have prognostic or predictive value in colorectal cancer. Fetuin A, members of the sirtuin family of proteins and telomeres have shown promise as potential biomarkers of ageing. AIM: To evaluate these potential biomarkers in the context of colorectal cancer. METHODS: Two cohorts of patients were used. Telomere length was measured in peripheral blood leukocytes (PBL), and for a subset of patients, in normal colorectal and colorectal tumour tissue. Serum fetuin A was measured for these patients and data on clinico-pathological factors of accepted significance in colorectal cancer was collected prospectively. Telomere length in the matched samples of leukocytes, normal colorectal and colorectal tumour tissue was compared. Associations between telomere length in the different tissues, serum fetuin A and clinico-pathological factors of accepted significance in colorectal cancer were evaluated. A systematic review of the literature was performed to examine the evidence for correlation between telomere length in different tissues in humans. Tissue from colorectal tumours from the second cohort patients was mounted in a tissue microarray (TMA) and stained for sirtuin proteins (SIRT2-SIRT7). This TMA also contained tissue from a subset of matched samples of adjacent normal colorectal mucosa. Staining of normal colorectal and colorectal tumour tissue was evaluated by the weighted Histoscore method and compared. The effect of staining in tumour tissue on cancer-specific survival was examined. Associations between Histoscores and clinico-pathological factors of accepted significance in colorectal cancer were assessed. RESULTS: Systematic review of the literature did not show robust evidence of correlation between telomere length in different tissues in humans. Telomere length in peripheral blood leukocytes did not show correlation with telomere length in normal colorectal mucosa, or in colorectal tumour tissue. PBL telomere length was potentially related to the presence of distant metastases. Fetuin A was inversely associated with markers of systemic inflammation and with T stage. Novel nuclear localisation was described for SIRT4 and SIRT5. Protein expression of the sirtuins was reduced in tumour tissue in comparison to normal colorectal mucosa, apart from SIRT3 cytoplasmic and nuclear and SIRT6 nuclear stainng. Lowest and highest quartile SIRT2 expression was associated with worse survival. Sirtuin protein expression levels and localisation correlate with increased systemic inflammation and pathological markers of poor prognosis in tumour tissue. Intercorrelations between sirtuin expression levels in normal tissue are not seen in tumour tissue, possibly indicating a breakdown of signalling and control.

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Background/Aims: The Mini Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination (M-ACE) is the abbreviated version of the widely-used Addenbrooke’s Cognitive Examination (ACE-III), a cognitive screening tool that is used internationally in the assessment of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. The objectives of this study were to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the M-ACE with individuals aged 75 and over to distinguish between those who do and do not have a dementia or MCI, and also to establish whether the cut-off scores recommended by Hsieh et al. (2014) [9] in the original validation study for the M-ACE are optimal for this age group. Methods: The M-ACE was administered to 58 participants (24 with a diagnosis of dementia, 17 with a diagnosis of MCI and 17 healthy controls). The extent to which scores distinguished between groups (dementia, MCI or no diagnosis) was explored using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: The optimal cut-off for detecting dementia was ≤ 21/30 (score ≤ 21/30 indicating dementia with a sensitivity of 0.95, a specificity of 1 and a positive predictive value of 1) compared to the original higher published cut-off of ≤ 25/30 (sensitivity of 0.95, specificity of 0.70 and a positive predictive value of 0.82 in this sample). Conclusions: The M-ACE has excellent diagnostic accuracy for the detection of dementia in a UK clinical sample. It may be necessary to consider lower cut-offs than those given in the original validation study.

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Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Resting heart rate has been shown to be a strong and independent risk marker for adverse cardiovascular events and mortality, and yet its role as a predictor of risk is somewhat overlooked in clinical practice. With the aim of highlighting its prognostic value, the role of resting heart rate as a risk marker for death and other adverse outcomes was further examined in a number of different patient populations. A systematic review of studies that previously assessed the prognostic value of resting heart rate for mortality and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes was presented. New analyses of nine clinical trials were carried out. Both the original and extended Cox model that allows for analysis of time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate and compare the predictive value of baseline and time-updated heart rate measurements for adverse outcomes in the CAPRICORN, EUROPA, PROSPER, PERFORM, BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT populations. Pooled individual patient meta-analyses of the CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT trials, and the BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT trials, were also performed. The discrimination and calibration of the models applied were evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, respectively. Finally, following on from the systematic review, meta-analyses of the relation between baseline and time-updated heart rate, and the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, were conducted. Both elevated baseline and time-updated resting heart rates were found to be associated with an increase in the risk of mortality and other adverse cardiovascular events in all of the populations analysed. In some cases, elevated time-updated heart rate was associated with risk of events where baseline heart rate was not. Time-updated heart rate also contributed additional information about the risk of certain events despite knowledge of baseline heart rate or previous heart rate measurements. The addition of resting heart rate to the models where resting heart rate was found to be associated with risk of outcome improved both discrimination and calibration, and in general, the models including time-updated heart rate along with baseline or the previous heart rate measurement had the highest and similar C-statistics, and thus the greatest discriminative ability. The meta-analyses demonstrated that a 5bpm higher baseline heart rate was associated with a 7.9% and an 8.0% increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively (both p less than 0.001). Additionally, a 5bpm higher time-updated heart rate (adjusted for baseline heart rate in eight of the ten studies included in the analyses) was associated with a 12.8% (p less than 0.001) and a 10.9% (p less than 0.001) increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. These findings may motivate health care professionals to routinely assess resting heart rate in order to identify individuals at a higher risk of adverse events. The fact that the addition of time-updated resting heart rate improved the discrimination and calibration of models for certain outcomes, even if only modestly, strengthens the case that it be added to traditional risk models. The findings, however, are of particular importance, and have greater implications for the clinical management of patients with pre-existing disease. An elevated, or increasing heart rate over time could be used as a tool, potentially alongside other established risk scores, to help doctors identify patient deterioration or those at higher risk, who might benefit from more intensive monitoring or treatment re-evaluation. Further exploration of the role of continuous recording of resting heart rate, say, when patients are at home, would be informative. In addition, investigation into the cost-effectiveness and optimal frequency of resting heart rate measurement is required. One of the most vital areas for future research is the definition of an objective cut-off value for the definition of a high resting heart rate.