Phylodynamic modelling of foot-and-mouth disease virus sequence data

The under-reporting of cases of infectious diseases is a substantial impediment to the control and management of infectious diseases in both epidemic and endemic contexts. Information about infectious disease dynamics can be recovered from sequence data using time-varying coalescent approaches, and phylodynamic models have been developed in order to reconstruct demographic changes of the numbers of infected hosts through time. In this study I have demonstrated the general concordance between empirically observed epidemiological incidence data and viral demography inferred through analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus VP1 coding sequences belonging to the CATHAY topotype over large temporal and spatial scales. However a more precise and robust relationship between the effective population size (

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

The impact of denture related disease on the oral microbiome of denture wearers

Advances in healthcare over the last 100 years has resulted in an ever increasing elderly population. This presents greater challenges for adequate systemic and oral healthcare delivery. With increasing age there is a natural decline in oral health, leading to the loss of teeth and ultimately for some having to wear denture prosthesis. It is currently estimated that approximately one fifth of the UK and US populations have some form of removable prosthesis. The microbiology of denture induced mucosal inflammation is a pivotal factor to consider in denture care management, similar to many other oral diseases of microbial influence, such as caries, gingivitis and periodontitis. Dentures support the growth of microbial biofilms, structures commonly known as denture plaque. Microbiologically, denture stomatitis (DS) is a disease primarily considered to be of yeast aetiology, with the literature disproportionately focussed on Candida spp. However, the denture surface is capable of carrying up to 1011 microbes per milligram, the majority of which are bacteria. Thus it is apparent that denture plaque is more diverse than we assume. There is a fundamental gap in our understanding of the bacterial composition of denture plaque and the role that they may play in denture related disease such as DS. This is categorised as inflammation of the oral mucosa, a disease affecting around half of all denture wearers. It has been proposed that bacteria and fungi interact on the denture surface and that these polymicrobial interactions lead to synergism and increased DS pathogenesis. Therefore, understanding the denture microbiome composition is the key step to beginning to understand disease pathogenesis, and ultimately help improve treatments and identify novel targets for therapeutic and preventative strategies. A group of 131 patients were included within this study in which they provided samples from their dentures, palatal mucosa, saliva and dental plaque. Microbes residing on the denture surface were quantified using standard Miles and Misra culture technique which investigated the presence of Candida, aerobes and anaerobes. These clinical samples also underwent next generation sequencing using the Miseq Illumina platform to give a more global representation of the microbes present at each of these sites in the oral cavity of these denture wearers. This data was then used to compare the composition and diversity of denture, mucosal and dental plaque between one another, as well as between healthy and diseased individuals. Additional comparisons included denture type and the presence or absence of natural teeth. Furthermore, microbiome data was used to assess differences between patients with varying levels of oral hygiene. The host response to the denture microbiome was investigated by screening the patients saliva for the presence and quantification of a range of antimicrobial peptides that are associated with the oral cavity. Based on the microbiome data an in vitro biofilm model was developed that reflected the composition of denture plaque. These biofilms were then used to assess quantitative and compositional changes over time and in response to denture cleansing treatments. Finally, the systemic implications of denture plaque were assessed by screening denture plaque samples for the presence of nine well known respiratory pathogens using quantitative PCR. The results from this study have shown that the bacterial microbiome composition of denture wearers is not consistent throughout the mouth and varies depending on sample site. Moreover, the presence of natural dentition has a significant impact on the microbiome composition. As for healthy and diseased patients the data suggests that compositional changes responsible for disease progression are occurring at the mucosa, and that dentures may in fact be a reservoir for these microbes. In terms of denture hygiene practices, sleeping with a denture in situ was found to be a common occurrence. Furthermore, significant shifts in denture microbiome composition were found in these individuals when compared to the denture microbiome of those that removed their denture at night. As for the host response, some antimicrobial peptides were found to be significantly reduced in the absence of natural dentition, indicating that the oral immune response is gradually impaired with the loss of teeth. This study also identified potentially serious systemic implications in terms of respiratory infection, as 64.6% of patients carried respiratory pathogens on their denture. In conclusion, this is the first study to provide a detailed understanding of the oral microbiome of denture wearers, and has provided evidence that DS development is more complex than simply a candidal infection. Both fungal and bacterial kingdoms clearly play a role in defining the progression of DS. The biofilm model created in this study demonstrated its potential as a platform to test novel actives. Future use of this model will aid in greater understanding of host: biofilm interactions. Such findings are applicable to oral health and beyond, and may help to identify novel therapeutic targets for the treatment of DS and other biofilm associated diseases.

Epidemiological studies of Johne’s Disease in cattle from Scottish farms, with a focus on slaughterhouse investigations

The PARABAN project has been a Scotland-wide initiative to develop and deliver farm-specific ‘best practice’ for the control of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in cattle using ‘Knowledge Exchange’. A range of partners have been involved, including nine ‘Champion Farms’. With input from the farmer, his/her vet and PARABAN advisors, a tailored monitoring and control programme was devised for each ‘Champion Farm’, taking into account the history of the disease on the farm, the physical facilities available and farmer objectives. Culling decisions based on live animal test results were incorporated into each farm-specific programme to complement the management programme already in place to maintain each herd. Results were analysed and discussed with all the partners throughout the project and then offered for wider scrutiny at farm open days. Feedback and questions from these open days have been used to complete the ‘Knowledge Exchange’ cycle. As a major component of the PARABAN project the author collected samples from all adult animals culled from ‘Champion Farms’ at slaughter or as fallen stock, irrespective of in-life MAP test status. These were then subjected to histopathological examination by experienced veterinary pathologists and the results compared with the results from in-life MAP testing. This was intended to evaluate the contribution slaughterhouse sampling could make towards decision making for disease control on farm and formed the main aim of this thesis. In total, samples of terminal ileum and draining lymph node were collected from three-hundred and fifty-two animals. A positive result on histopathology was defined as the presence of lesions typical of MAP and also the presence of acid-fast bacteria within the sections. There was found to be fair agreement between the overall results from histopathology and serum ELISA (Kappa = 0.33), though there appeared to be some variation in agreement between the tests on the individual ‘Champion Farms’. The presence of MAP was confirmed in seven of the eight farms which contributed animals to this study, despite sometimes prolonged efforts at controlling the disease. A separate study was undertaken to make use of the archives of the Scottish Centre for Production Animal Health and Food Safety at the Veterinary School, University of Glasgow. The archive contained records of cases from across southern Scotland and northern England. Analysis of the data generated from examination of these records suggested that MAP is widespread within the Scottish cattle herd and may well be increasing