Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Crinkles in connectivity: combining genetics and other types of biological data to estimate movement and interbreeding between populations

Marine species generally have large population sizes, continuous distributions and high dispersal capacity. Despite this, they are often subdivided into separate populations, which are the basic units of fisheries management. For example, populations of some fisheries species across the deep water of the Timor Trench are genetically different, inferring minimal movement and interbreeding. When connectivity is higher than the Timor Trench example, but not so high that the populations become one, connectivity between populations is crinkled. Crinkled connectivity occurs when migration is above the threshold required to link populations genetically, but below the threshold for demographic links. In future, genetic estimates of connectivity over crinkled links could be uniquely combined with other data, such as estimates of population size and tagging and tracking data, to quantify demographic connectedness between these types of populations. Elasmobranch species may be ideal targets for this research because connectivity between populations is more likely to be crinkled than for finfish species. Fisheries stock-assessment models could be strengthened with estimates of connectivity to improve the strategic and sustainable harvesting of biological resources.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Population genetics of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Global amphibian decline by chytridiomycosis is a major environmental disaster that has been attributed to either recent fungal spread or environmental change that promotes disease. Here, we present a population genetic comparison of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis isolates from an intensively studied region of frog decline, the Sierra Nevada of California. In support of a novel pathogen, we find low diversity, no amphibian-host specificity, little correlation between fungal genotype and geography, local frog extirpation by a single fungal genotype, and evidence of human-assisted fungus migration. In support of endemism, at a local scale, we find some diverse, recombining populations. Therefore neither epidemic spread nor endemism alone explains this particular amphibian decline. Recombination raises the possibility of resistant sporangia and a mechanism for rapid spread as well as persistence that could greatly complicate global control of the pathogen.

Genetics of heifer performance in 'wet' and 'dry' seasons and their relationships with steer performance in two tropical beef genotypes.

The genetics of heifer performance in tropical 'wet' and 'dry' seasons, and relationships with steer performance, were studied in Brahman (BRAH) and Tropical Composite (TCOMP) (50% Bos indicus, African Sanga or other tropically adapted Bos taurus; 50% non-tropically adapted Bos taurus) cattle of northern Australia. Data were from 2159 heifers (1027 BRAH, 1132 TCOMP), representing 54 BRAH and 51 TCOMP sires. Heifers were assessed after post-weaning 'wet' (ENDWET) and 'dry' (ENDDRY) seasons. Steers were assessed post-weaning, at feedlot entry, over a 70-day feed test, and after similar to 120-day finishing. Measures studied in both heifers and steers were liveweight (LWT), scanned rump fat, rib fat and M. longissimus area (SEMA), body condition score (CS), hip height (HH), serum insulin-like growth factor-I concentration (IGF-I), and average daily gains (ADG). Additional steer measures were scanned intra-muscular fat%, flight time, and daily (DFI) and residual feed intake (RFI). Uni- and bivariate analyses were conducted for combined genotypes and for individual genotypes. Genotype means were predicted for a subset of data involving 34 BRAH and 26 TCOMP sires. A meta-analysis of genetic correlation estimates examined how these were related to the difference between measurement environments for specific traits. There were genotype differences at the level of means, variances and genetic correlations. BRAH heifers were significantly (P < 0.05) faster-growing in the 'wet' season, slower-growing in the 'dry' season, lighter at ENDDRY, and taller and fatter with greater CS and IGF-I at both ENDWET and ENDDRY. Heritabilities were generally in the 20 to 60% range for both genotypes. Phenotypic and genetic variances, and genetic correlations, were commonly lower for BRAH. Differences were often explained by the long period of tropical adaptation of B. indicus. Genetic correlations were high between corresponding measures at ENDWET and ENDDRY, positive between fat and muscle measures in TCOMP but negative in BRAH (mean of 13 estimates 0.50 and -0.19, respectively), and approximately zero between steer feedlot ADG and heifer ADG in BRAH. Numerous genetic correlations between heifers and steers differed substantially from unity, especially in BRAH, suggesting there may be scope to select differently in the sexes where that would aid the differing roles of heifers and steers in production. Genetic correlations declined as measurement environments became more different, the rates of decline (environment sensitivity) sometimes differing with genotype. Similar measures (LWT, HH and ADG; IGF-I at ENDWET in TCOMP) were genetically correlated with steer DFI in heifers as in steers. Heifer SEMA was genetically correlated with steer feedlot RFI in BRAH (0.75 +/- 0.27 at ENDWET, 0.66 +/- 0.24 at ENDDRY). Selection to reduce steer RFI would reduce SEMA in BRAH heifers but otherwise have only small effects on heifers before their first joining.

Genetics of heifer puberty in two tropical beef genotypes in northern Australia and associations with heifer- and steer-production traits

A total of 2115 heifers from two tropical genotypes (1007 Brahman and 1108 Tropical Composite) raised in four locations in northern Australia were ovarian-scanned every 4-6 weeks to determine the age at the first-observed corpus luteum (CL) and this was used to de. ne the age at puberty for each heifer. Other traits recorded at each time of ovarian scanning were liveweight, fat depths and body condition score. Reproductive tract size was measured close to the start of the first joining period. Results showed significant effects of location and birth month on the age at first CL and associated puberty traits. Genotypes did not differ significantly for the age or weight at first CL; however, Brahman were fatter at first CL and had a small reproductive tract size compared with that of Tropical Composite. Genetic analyses estimated the age at first CL to be moderately to highly heritable for Brahman (0.57) and Tropical Composite (0.52). The associated traits were also moderately heritable, except for reproductive tract size in Brahmans (0.03) and for Tropical Composite, the presence of an observed CL on the scanning day closest to the start of joining (0.07). Genetic correlations among puberty traits were mostly moderate to high and generally larger in magnitude for Brahman than for Tropical Composite. Genetic correlations between the age at CL and heifer- and steer-production traits showed important genotype differences. For Tropical Composite, the age at CL was negatively correlated with the heifer growth rate in their first postweaning wet season (-0.40) and carcass marbling score (-0.49), but was positively correlated with carcass P8 fat depth (0.43). For Brahman, the age at CL was moderately negatively genetically correlated with heifer measures of bodyweight, fatness, body condition score and IGF-I, in both their first postweaning wet and second dry seasons, but was positively correlated with the dry-season growth rate. For Brahman, genetic correlations between the age at CL and steer traits showed possible antagonisms with feedlot residual feed intake (-0.60) and meat colour (0.73). Selection can be used to change the heifer age at puberty in both genotypes, with few major antagonisms with steer- and heifer- production traits.

Detection and use of QTL for complex traits in multiple environments.

QTL mapping methods for complex traits are challenged by new developments in marker technology, phenotyping platforms, and breeding methods. In meeting these challenges, QTL mapping approaches will need to also acknowledge the central roles of QTL by environment interactions (QEI) and QTL by trait interactions in the expression of complex traits like yield. This paper presents an overview of mixed model QTL methodology that is suitable for many types of populations and that allows predictive modeling of QEI, both for environmental and developmental gradients. Attention is also given to multi-trait QTL models which are essential to interpret the genetic basis of trait correlations. Biophysical (crop growth) model simulations are proposed as a complement to statistical QTL mapping for the interpretation of the nature of QEI and to investigate better methods for the dissection of complex traits into component traits and their genetic controls.

Quantitative and molecular genetics of juvenile wood traits in radiata and slash/Caribbean pines.

The Juvenile Wood Initiative (JWI) project has been running successfully since July 2003 under a Research Agreement with FWPA and Letters of Association with the consortium partners STBA (Southern Tree Breeding Association), ArborGen and FPQ (Forestry Plantations Queensland). Over the last five and half years, JWI scientists in CSIRO, FPQ, and STBA have completed all 12 major milestones and 28 component milestones according to the project schedule. We have made benchmark progress in understanding the genetic control of wood formation and interrelationships among wood traits. The project has made 15 primary scientific findings and several results have been adopted by industry as summarized below. This progress was detailed in 10 technical reports to funding organizations and industry clients. Team scientists produced 16 scientific manuscripts (8 published, 1 in press, 2 submitted, and several others in the process of submission) and 15 conference papers or presentations. Primary Scientific Findings. The 15 major scientific findings related to wood science, inheritance and the genetic basis of juvenile wood traits are: 1. An optimal method to predict stiffness of standing trees in slash/Caribbean pine is to combine gravimetric basic density from 12 mm increment cores with a standing tree prediction of MoE using a time of flight acoustic tool. This was the most accurate and cheapest way to rank trees for breeding selection for slash/Caribbean hybrid pine. This method was also recommended for radiata pine. 2. Wood density breeding values were predicted for the first time in the STBA breeding population using a large sample of 7,078 trees (increment cores) and it was estimated that selection of the best 250 trees for deployment will produce wood density gains of 12.4%. 3. Large genetic variation for a suite of wood quality traits including density, MFA, spiral grain, shrinkage, acoustic and non-acoustic stiffness (MoE) for clear wood and standing trees were observed. Genetic gains of between 8 and 49% were predicted for these wood quality traits with selection intensity between 1 to 10% for radiata pine. 4. Site had a major effect on juvenile-mature wood transition age and the effect of selective breeding for a shorter juvenile wood formation phase was only moderate (about 10% genetic gain with 10% selection intensity, equivalent to about 2 years reduction of juvenile wood). 5. The study found no usable site by genotype interactions for the wood quality traits of density, MFA and MoE for both radiata and slash/Caribbean pines, suggesting that assessment of wood properties on one or two sites will provide reliable estimates of the genetic worth of individuals for use in future breeding. 6. There were significant and sizable genotype by environment interactions between the mainland and Tasmanian regions and within Tasmania for DBH and branch size. 7. Strong genetic correlations between rings for density, MFA and MoE for both radiata and slash/Caribbean pines were observed. This suggests that selection for improved wood properties in the innermost rings would also result in improvement of wood properties in the subsequent rings, as well as improved average performance of the entire core. 8. Strong genetic correlations between pure species and hybrid performance for each of the wood quality traits were observed in the hybrid pines. Parental performance can be used to identify the hybrid families which are most likely to have superior juvenile wood properties of the slash/Caribbean F1 hybrid in southeast Queensland. 9. Large unfavourable genetic correlations between growth and wood quality traits were a prominent feature in radiata pine, indicating that overcoming this unfavourable genetic correlation will be a major technical issue in progressing radiata pine breeding. 10. The project created the first radiata pine 18 k cDNA microarray and generated 5,952 radiata pine xylogenesis expressed sequence tags (ESTs) which assembled into 3,304 unigenes. 11. A total of 348 genes were identified as preferentially expressed genes in earlywood or latewood while a total of 168 genes were identified as preferentially expressed genes in either juvenile or mature wood. 12. Juvenile earlywood has a distinct transcriptome relative to other stages of wood development. 13. Discovered rapid decay of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in radiata pine with LD decaying to approximately 50% within 1,700 base pairs (within a typical gene). A total of 913 SNPS from sequencing 177,380 base pairs were identified for association genetic studies. 14. 149 SNPs from 44 genes and 255 SNPs from a further 51 genes (total 95 genes) were selected for association analysis with 62 wood traits, and 30 SNPs were shortlisted for their significant association with variation of wood quality traits (density, MFA and MoE) with individual significant SNPs accounting for between 1.9 and 9.7% of the total genetic variation in traits. 15. Index selection using breeding objectives was the most profitable selection method for radiata pine, but in the long term it may not be the most effective in dealing with negative genetic correlations between wood volume and quality traits. A combination of economic and biological approaches may be needed to deal with the strong adverse correlation.

Reverse Genetics of Sorghum

Project aims to develop reverse genetics resources for sorghum, including a large mutant population and a Natural Diversity Library (DNA of a world-representative sorghum germplasm sub-set). Additionally, inter specific wide crosses will be studied.

Supermodels: sorghum and maize provide mutual insight into the genetics of flowering time

Nested association mapping (NAM) offers power to dissect complex, quantitative traits. This study made use of a recently developed sorghum backcross (BC)-NAM population to dissect the genetic architecture of flowering time in sorghum; to compare the QTL identified with other genomic regions identified in previous sorghum and maize flowering time studies and to highlight the implications of our findings for plant breeding. A subset of the sorghum BC-NAM population consisting of over 1,300 individuals from 24 families was evaluated for flowering time across multiple environments. Two QTL analysis methodologies were used to identify 40 QTLs with predominately small, additive effects on flowering time; 24 of these co-located with previously identified QTL for flowering time in sorghum and 16 were novel in sorghum. Significant synteny was also detected with the QTL for flowering time detected in a comparable NAM resource recently developed for maize (Zea mays) by Buckler et al. (Science 325:714-718, 2009). The use of the sorghum BC-NAM population allowed us to catalogue allelic variants at a maximal number of QTL and understand their contribution to the flowering time phenotype and distribution across diverse germplasm. The successful demonstration of the power of the sorghum BC-NAM population is exemplified not only by correspondence of QTL previously identified in sorghum, but also by correspondence of QTL in different taxa, specifically maize in this case. The unification across taxa of the candidate genes influencing complex traits, such as flowering time can further facilitate the detailed dissection of the genetic control and causal genes.

Association genetics in Corymbia citriodora subsp variegata identifies single nucleotide polymorphisms affecting wood growth and cellulosic pulp yield

Wood is an important biological resource which contributes to nutrient and hydrology cycles through ecosystems, and provides structural support at the plant level. Thousands of genes are involved in wood development, yet their effects on phenotype are not well understood. We have exploited the low genomic linkage disequilibrium (LD) and abundant phenotypic variation of forest trees to explore allelic diversity underlying wood traits in an association study. Candidate gene allelic diversity was modelled against quantitative variation to identify SNPs influencing wood properties, growth and disease resistance across three populations of Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata, a forest tree of eastern Australia. Nine single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations from six genes were identified in a discovery population (833 individuals). Associations were subsequently tested in two smaller populations (130160 individuals), validating our findings in three cases for actin 7 (ACT7) and COP1 interacting protein 7 (CIP7). The results imply a functional role for these genes in mediating wood chemical composition and growth, respectively. A flip in the effect of ACT7 on pulp yield between populations suggests gene by environment interactions are at play. Existing evidence of gene function lends strength to the observed associations, and in the case of CIP7 supports a role in cortical photosynthesis.

A review of the application of molecular genetics for fisheries management and conservation of sharks and rays

Since the first investigation 25 years ago, the application of genetic tools to address ecological and evolutionary questions in elasmobranch studies has greatly expanded. Major developments in genetic theory as well as in the availability, cost effectiveness and resolution of genetic markers were instrumental for particularly rapid progress over the last 10 years. Genetic studies of elasmobranchs are of direct importance and have application to fisheries management and conservation issues such as the definition of management units and identification of species from fins. In the future, increased application of the most recent and emerging technologies will enable accelerated genetic data production and the development of new markers at reduced costs, paving the way for a paradigm shift from gene to genome-scale research, and more focus on adaptive rather than just neutral variation. Current literature is reviewed in six fields of elasmobranch molecular genetics relevant to fisheries and conservation management (species identification, phylogeography, philopatry, genetic effective population size, molecular evolutionary rate and emerging methods). Where possible, examples from the Indo-Pacific region, which has been underrepresented in previous reviews, are emphasized within a global perspective. (C) 2012 The Authors Journal of Fish Biology (C) 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles

Genetics of early and lifetime annual reproductive performance in cows of two tropical beef genotypes in northern Australia

Reproduction records from 2137 cows first mated at 2 years of age and recorded through to 8.5 years of age were used to study the genetics of early and lifetime reproductive performance from two genotypes (1020 Brahman and 1117 Tropical Composite) in tropical Australian production systems. Regular ultrasound scanning of the reproductive tract, coupled with full recording of mating, calving and weaning histories, allowed a comprehensive evaluation of a range of reproductive traits. Results showed components traits of early reproductive performance had moderate to high heritabilities, especially in Brahmans. The heritability of lactation anoestrous interval in 3-year-old cows was 0.51 +/- 0.18 and 0.26 +/- 0.11 for Brahman and Tropical Composite, respectively. Heritabilities of binary reproductive output traits (conception rate, pregnancy rate, calving rate and weaning rate) from first and second matings were generally moderate to high on the underlying scale. Estimates ranged from 0.15 to 0.69 in Brahman and 0.15 to 0.34 in Tropical Composite, but were considerably lower when expressed on the observed scale, particularly for those traits with high mean levels. Heritabilities of lifetime reproduction traits were low, with estimates of 0.11 +/- 0.06 and 0.07 +/- 0.06 for lifetime annual weaning rate in Brahman and Tropical Composite, respectively. Significant differences in mean reproductive performance were observed between the two genotypes, especially for traits associated with anoestrus in first-lactation cows. Genetic correlations between early-in-life reproductive measures and lifetime reproduction traits were moderate to high. Genetic correlations between lactation anoestrous interval and lifetime annual weaning rate were -0.62 +/- 0.24 in Brahman and -0.87 +/- 0.32 in Tropical Composite. The results emphasise the substantial opportunity that exists to genetically improve weaning rates in tropical beef cattle breeds by focusing recording and selection on early-in-life female reproduction traits, particularly in Brahman for traits associated with lactation anoestrus.

Population genetics of Australian white sharks reveals fine-scale spatial structure, transoceanic dispersal events and low effective population sizes

Despite international protection of white sharks Carcharodon carcharias, important conservation parameters such as abundance, population structure and genetic diversity are largely unknown. The tissue of 97 predominately juvenile white sharks sampled from spatially distant eastern and southwestern Australian coastlines was sequenced for the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and genotyped with 6 nuclear-encoded microsatellite loci. MtDNA population structure was found between the eastern and southwestern coasts (F-ST = 0.142, p < 0.0001), implying female reproductive philopatry. This concurs with recent satellite and acoustic tracking findings which suggest the sustained presence of discrete east coast nursery areas. Furthermore, population subdivision was found between the same regions with biparentally inherited micro satellite markers (F-ST = 0.009, p < 0.05), suggesting that males may also exhibit some degree of reproductive philopatry; 5 sharks captured along the east coast had mtDNA haplotypes that resembled western Indian Ocean sharks more closely than Australian/New Zealand sharks, suggesting that transoceanic dispersal, or migration resulting in breeding, may occur sporadically. Our most robust estimate of contemporary genetic effective population size was low and close to thresholds at which adaptive potential may be lost. For a variety of reasons, these contemporary estimates were at least 1, possibly 2, orders of magnitude below our historical effective size estimates. Population decline could expose these genetically isolated populations to detrimental genetic effects. Regional Australian white shark conservation management units should be implemented until genetic population structure, size and diversity can be investigated in more detail.

Crop design for specific adaptation in variable dryland production environments

Climatic variability in dryland production environments (E) generates variable yield and crop production risks. Optimal combinations of genotype (G) and management (M) depend strongly on E and thus vary among sites and seasons. Traditional crop improvement seeks broadly adapted genotypes to give best average performance under a standard management regime across the entire production region, with some subsequent manipulation of management regionally in response to average local environmental conditions. This process does not search the full spectrum of potential G × M × E combinations forming the adaptation landscape. Here we examine the potential value (relative to the conventional, broad adaptation approach) of exploiting specific adaptation arising from G × M × E. We present an in-silico analysis for sorghum production in Australia using the APSIM sorghum model. Crop design (G × M) is optimised for subsets of locations within the production region (specific adaptation) and is compared with the optimum G across all environments with locally modified M (broad adaptation). We find that geographic subregions that have frequencies of major environment types substantially different from that for the entire production region show greatest advantage for specific adaptation. Although the specific adaptation approach confers yield and production risk advantages at industry scale, even greater benefits should be achievable with better predictors of environment-type likelihood than that conferred by location alone.