Is endemic stability of tick-borne disease in cattle a useful concept?

Endemic stability is a widely used term in the epidemiology of ticks and tick-borne diseases. It is generally accepted to refer to a state of a host tick pathogen interaction in which there is a high level of challenge of calves by infected ticks, absence of clinical disease in calves despite infection, and a high level of immunity in adult cattle with consequent low incidence of clinical disease. Although endemic stability is a valid epidemiological concept, the modelling studies that underpinned subsequent studies on the epidemiology of tick-borne diseases were specific to a single host tick pathogen system, and values derived from these models should not be applied in other regions or host tick pathogen systems.

Short-term responses of leaf growth rate to water deficit scale up to whole-plant and crop levels: An integrated modelling approach in maize.

Physiological and genetic studies of leaf growth often focus on short-term responses, leaving a gap to whole-plant models that predict biomass accumulation, transpiration and yield at crop scale. To bridge this gap, we developed a model that combines an existing model of leaf 6 expansion in response to short-term environmental variations with a model coordinating the development of all leaves of a plant. The latter was based on: (1) rates of leaf initiation, appearance and end of elongation measured in field experiments; and (2) the hypothesis of an independence of the growth between leaves. The resulting whole-plant leaf model was integrated into the generic crop model APSIM which provided dynamic feedback of environmental conditions to the leaf model and allowed simulation of crop growth at canopy level. The model was tested in 12 field situations with contrasting temperature, evaporative demand and soil water status. In observed and simulated data, high evaporative demand reduced leaf area at the whole-plant level, and short water deficits affected only leaves developing during the stress, either visible or still hidden in the whorl. The model adequately simulated whole-plant profiles of leaf area with a single set of parameters that applied to the same hybrid in all experiments. It was also suitable to predict biomass accumulation and yield of a similar hybrid grown in different conditions. This model extends to field conditions existing knowledge of the environmental controls of leaf elongation, and can be used to simulate how their genetic controls flow through to yield.

Graze to grain - measuring and modelling the effects of grazed pasture leys on soil nitrogen and sorghum yield on a Vertosol soil in the Australian subtropics

Highly productive sown pasture systems can result in high growth rates of beef cattle and lead to increases in soil nitrogen and the production of subsequent crops. The nitrogen dynamics and growth of grain sorghum following grazed annual legume leys or a grass pasture were investigated in a no-till system in the South Burnett district of Queensland. Two years of the tropical legumes Macrotyloma daltonii and Vigna trilobata (both self regenerating annual legumes) and Lablab purpureus (a resown annual legume) resulted in soil nitrate N (0-0.9 m depth), at sorghum sowing, ranging from 35 to 86 kg/ha compared with 4 kg/ha after pure grass pastures. Average grain sorghum production in the 4 cropping seasons following the grazed legume leys ranged from 2651 to 4012 kg/ha. Following the grass pasture, grain sorghum production in the first and second year was < 1900 kg/ha and by the third year grain yield was comparable to the legume systems. Simulation studies utilising the farming systems model APSIM indicated that the soil N and water dynamics following 2-year ley phases could be closely represented over 4 years and the prediction of sorghum growth during this time was reasonable. In simulated unfertilised sorghum crops grown from 1954 to 2004, grain yield did not exceed 1500 kg/ha in 50% of seasons following a grass pasture, while following 2-year legume leys, grain exceeded 3000 kg/ha in 80% of seasons. It was concluded that mixed farming systems that utilise short term legume-based pastures for beef production in rotation with crop production enterprises can be highly productive.

Improving the agent selection, release and evaluation process: the role of bioclimatic modelling

The value of CLIMEX models to inform biocontrol programs was assessed, including predicting the potential distribution of biocontrol agents and their subsequent population dynamics, using bioclimatic models for the weed Parkinsonia aculeata, two Lantana camara biocontrol agents, and five Mimosa pigra biocontrol agents. The results showed the contribution of data types to CLIMEX models and the capacity of these models to inform and improve the selection, release and post release evaluation of biocontrol agents. Foremost among these was the quality of spatial and temporal information as well as the extent to which overseas range data samples the species’ climatic envelope. Post hoc evaluation and refinement of these models requires improved long-term monitoring of introduced agents and their dynamics at well selected study sites. The authors described the findings of these case studies, highlighted their implications, and considered how to incorporate models effectively into biocontrol programs.

Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Maximising the contribution of native-range studies towards the identification and prioritisation of weed biocontrol agents

Effective study in the native range to identify potential agents underpins all efforts in classical biological control of weeds. Good agents that demonstrate both a high degree of host specificity and the potential to be damaging are a very limited resource and must therefore be carefully studied and considered. The overseas component is often operationally difficult and expensive but can contribute considerably more than a list of herbivores attacking a particular target. While the principles underlying this foreign component have been understood for some time, recently developed technologies and methods can make very significant contributions to foreign studies. Molecular and genetic characterisations of both target weed and agent organism can be increasingly employed to more accurately define the identity and phylogeny of them. Climate matching and modelling software is now available and can be utilised to better select agents for particular regions of concern. Relational databases can store collection information for analysis and future enquiry while quantification of sampling effort, employment of statistical survey methods and analysis by techniques such as rarefaction curves contribute to efficient and effective searching. Obtaining good and timely identifications for discovered agent organisms is perhaps the most serious issue confronting the modern explorer. The diminishing numbers of specialist taxonomists employed at the major museums while international and national protocols demand higher standards of identity exacerbates the issue. Genetic barcoding may provide a very useful tool to overcome this problem. Native-range work also offers under-exploited opportunities for contributing towards predicting safety, abundance and efficacy of potential agents in their target environment.

Wet season resting - economic insights from scenario modelling

Pasture degradation, particularly that attributable to overgrazing, is a significant problem across the northern Australian rangelands. Although grazing studies have identified the scope for wet season resting strategies to be used to rehabilitate degraded pastures, the economic outcome of these strategies has not been extensively demonstrated. An exploratory study of the prospective economic value of wet season resting is presented using an economic simulation model of a 28000 ha beef enterprise located in the Charters Towers region of north-eastern Australia to explore seven hypothetical scenarios centred on the projected performance of a wet season resting strategy. A series of 20-year simulations for a range of pasture recovery profiles, stocking capacity, animal productivity responses, beef prices and agistment options are compared with a baseline scenario of taking no action. Estimates of the net present value of the 20-year difference in total enterprise gross margins between the various resting options and the 'do nothing' option identify that wet season resting can offer a positive economic return for the range of scenarios examined, although this is contingent on the assumptions that are made concerning the trajectories of change in carrying capacity and animal productivity. Some implications for management and policy making to support the practical implementation of wet season resting strategies are discussed.

A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.