Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

A parasitoid of solenopsis mealybug found at Emerald

The parasitoid of solenopsis mealybug, namely Aenasius bambawalei, has been recorded for the first time in Emerald, Queensland, Australia. The parasitoid was found during a routine inspection of ratoons on the western side of Emerald on 27 November 2012. During a recent trip to Theodore, two casings of parasitized mealybugs (already hatched) were also found, one on pigweed [ Amaranthus] and one in the field on a cotton plant.

Managing patches of glyphosate resistant Echinochloa colona: can they be eradicated?

Glyphosate-resistant Echinochloa colona L. (Link) is becoming common in non-irrigated cotton systems. Echinochloa colona is a small seeded species that is not wind-blown and has a relatively short seed bank life. These characteristics make it a potential candidate to attempt to eradicate resistant populations when they are detected. A long term systems experiment was developed to determine the feasibility of attempting to eradicate glyphosate resistant populations in the field. To this point the established Best Management Practice (BMP) strategy of two non-glyphosate actions in crop and fallow have been sufficient to significantly reduce the numbers of plants emerging, and remaining at the end of the season. Additional eradication treatments showed slight improvement on the BMP strategy, however were not significant overall. The effects of additional eradication tactics are expected to be more noticeable as the seed bank gets driven down in subsequent seasons.

Reducing seed viability of flaxleaf fleabane, feathertop Rhodes grass and awnless barnyard grass

In the sub-tropical grain region of Australia, cotton and grains systems are now dominated by flaxleaf fleabane (Conyza bonariensis (L.) Cronquist), feathertop Rhodes grass (Chloris virgata Sw.) and awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona (L.) Link). While control of these weed species is best achieved when they are young, previous studies have shown a potential for reducing seed viability and minimising seed bank replenishment by applying herbicides when plants are reproductive. Pot trials were established over two growing seasons to examine the effects of 2,4-D, 2,4-D + picloram, glyphosate and glufosinate which had been successful on other species, along with paraquat and haloxyfop (grasses only). Herbicides were applied at ¾ field rates in an attempt not to kill the plants. Flaxleaf fleabane plants were sprayed at two growth stages (budding and flowering) and the grasses were sprayed at two stages (late tillering/booting and flowering). Spraying flaxleaf fleabane at flowering reduced seed viability to 0% (of untreated) in all treatments except glyphosate (51%) and 2,4-D + picloram (8%). Seed viability was not reduced with the first and second regrowths with the exception of 2,4-D + picloram where viability was reduced to 20%. When sprayed at budding only 2,4-D + picloram reduced seed viability in both trials. Spraying the grasses at late tillering/booting did not reduce viability except for glufosinate on awnless barnyard grass (50%). Applying herbicides at flowering resulted in 0% seed viability in awnless barnyard grass from glufosinate, paraquat and glyphosate and 0% viability in feathertop Rhodes grass for glufosinate. These herbicides were less effective on heads that emerged and flowered after spraying, only slightly reducing seed viability. These trials have shown that attempts to reduce seed viability have potential, however flaxleaf fleabane and feathertop Rhodes grass are able to regrow and will need on-going monitoring and control measures.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Cadmium stress alters the redox reaction and hormone balance in oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) leaves

In order to understand the physiological response of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) leaves to cadmium (Cd) stress and exploit the physiological mechanisms involved in Cd tolerance, macro-mineral and chlorophyll concentrations, reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulation, activities of enzymatic antioxidants, nonenzymatic compounds metabolism, endogenous hormonal changes, and balance in leaves of oilseed rape exposed to 0, 100, or 200 μM CdSO4 were investigated. The results showed that under Cd exposure, Cd concentrations in the leaves continually increased while macro-minerals and chlorophyll concentrations decreased significantly. Meanwhile, with increased Cd stress, superoxide anion (O 2 • − ) production rate and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) concentrations in the leaves increased significantly, which caused malondialdehyde (MDA) accumulation and oxidative stress. For scavenging excess accumulated ROS and alleviating oxidative injury in the leaves, the activity of enzymatic antioxidants, such as superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD), and catalase (CAT), was increased significantly at certain stress levels. However, with increased Cd stress, the antioxidant enzyme activities all showed a trend towards reduction. The nonenzymatic antioxidative compounds, such as proline and total soluble sugars, accumulated continuously with increased Cd stress to play a long-term role in scavenging ROS. In addition, ABA levels also increased continuously with Cd stress while ZR decreased and the ABA/ZR ratio increased, which might also be providing a protective role against Cd toxicity.

Epidemiology and genetic diversity of Tobacco streak virus and related subgroup 1 ilarviruses

A quarter of Australia’s sunflower production is from the central highlands region of Queensland and is currently worth six million dollars ($AUD) annually. From the early 2000s a severe necrosis disorder of unknown aetiology was affecting large areas of sunflower crops in central Queensland, leading to annual losses of up to 20%. Other crops such as mung bean and cotton were also affected. This PhD study was undertaken to determine if the causal agent of the necrosis disorder was of viral origin and, if so, to characterise its genetic diversity, biology and disease cycle, and to develop effective control strategies. The research described in this thesis identified Tobacco streak virus (TSV; genus Ilarvirus, family Bromoviridae) as the causal agent of the previously unidentified necrosis disorder of sunflower in central Queensland. TSV was also the cause of commonly found diseases in a range of other crops in the same region including cotton, chickpea and mung bean. This was the first report from Australia of natural field infections of TSV from these four crops. TSV strains have previously been reported from other regions of Australia in several hosts based on serological and host range studies. In order to determine the relatedness of previously reported TSV strains with TSV from central Queensland, we characterised the genetic diversity of the known TSV strains from Australia. We identified two genetically distinct TSV strains from central Queensland and named them based on their major alternative hosts, TSV-parthenium from Parthenium hysterophorus and TSV-crownbeard from Verbesina encelioides. They share only 81 % total-genome nucleotide sequence identity. In addition to TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard from central Queensland, we also described the complete genomes of two other ilarvirus species. This proved that previously reported TSV strains, TSV-S isolated from strawberry and TSV-Ag from Ageratum houstonianum, were actually the first record of Strawberry necrotic shock virus from Australia, and a new subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus. Our results confirmed that the TSV strains found in central Queensland were not related to previously described strains from Australia and may represent new incursions. This is the first report of the genetic diversity within subgroup 1 ilarviruses from Australia. Based on field observations we hypothesised that parthenium and crownbeard were acting as symptomless hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, respectively. We developed strain-specific multiplex PCRs for the three RNA segments to accurately characterise the range of naturally infected hosts across central Queensland. Results described in this thesis show compelling evidence that parthenium and crownbeard are the major (symptomless) alternative hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. While both TSV strains had wide natural host ranges, the geographical distribution of each strain was closely associated with the respective distribution of their major alternative hosts. Both TSV strains were commonly found across large areas of central Queensland, but we only found strong evidence for the TSV-parthenium strain being associated with major disease outbreaks in nearby crops. The findings from this study demonstrate that both TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard have similar life cycles but some critical differences. We found both TSV strains to be highly seed transmitted from their respective major alternative hosts from naturally infected mother plants and survived in seed for more than 2 years. We conclusively demonstrated that both TSV strains were readily transmitted via virus-infected pollen taken from the major alternative hosts. This transmission was facilitated by the most commonly collected thrips species, Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis. These results illustrate the importance of seed transmission and efficient thrips vector species for the effective survival of these TSV strains in an often harsh environment and enables the rapid development of TSV disease epidemics in surrounding crops. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was naturally infected by, and an experimental host of TSV-parthenium. However, this infection combination resulted in non-viable crownbeard seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. Based on our field observations we hypothesised that there were differences in relative tolerance to TSV infection between different sunflower hybrids and that seasonal variation in disease levels was related to rainfall in the critical early crop stage. Results from our field trials conducted over multiple years conclusively demonstrated significant differences in tolerance to natural infections of TSV-parthenium in a wide range of sunflower hybrids. Glasshouse tests indicate the resistance to TSV-parthenium identified in the sunflower hybrids is also likely to be effective against TSV-crownbeard. We found a significant negative association between TSV disease incidence in sunflowers and accumulated rainfall in the months of March and April with increasing rainfall resulting in reduced levels of disease. Our results indicate that the use of tolerant sunflower germplasm will be a critical strategy to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower.

Genetic diversity and epidemiology of Tobacco streak virus and related subgroup 1 Ilarviruses

A quarter of Australia’s sunflower production is from the central highlands region of Queensland and is currently worth six million dollars ($AUD) annually. From the early 2000s a severe necrosis disorder of unknown aetiology was affecting large areas of sunflower crops in central Queensland, leading to annual losses of up to 20%. Other crops such as mung bean and cotton were also affected. This PhD study was undertaken to determine if the causal agent of the necrosis disorder was of viral origin and, if so, to characterise its genetic diversity, biology and disease cycle, and to develop effective control strategies. The research described in this thesis identified Tobacco streak virus (TSV; genus Ilarvirus, family Bromoviridae) as the causal agent of the previously unidentified necrosis disorder of sunflower in central Queensland. TSV was also the cause of commonly found diseases in a range of other crops in the same region including cotton, chickpea and mung bean. This was the first report from Australia of natural field infections of TSV from these four crops. TSV strains have previously been reported from other regions of Australia in several hosts based on serological and host range studies. In order to determine the relatedness of previously reported TSV strains with TSV from central Queensland, we characterised the genetic diversity of the known TSV strains from Australia. We identified two genetically distinct TSV strains from central Queensland and named them based on their major alternative hosts, TSV-parthenium from Parthenium hysterophorus and TSV-crownbeard from Verbesina encelioides. They share only 81 % total-genome nucleotide sequence identity. In addition to TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard from central Queensland, we also described the complete genomes of two other ilarvirus species. This proved that previously reported TSV strains, TSV-S isolated from strawberry and TSV-Ag from Ageratum houstonianum, were actually the first record of Strawberry necrotic shock virus from Australia, and a new subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus. Our results confirmed that the TSV strains found in central Queensland were not related to previously described strains from Australia and may represent new incursions. This is the first report of the genetic diversity within subgroup 1 ilarviruses from Australia. Based on field observations we hypothesised that parthenium and crownbeard were acting as symptomless hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, respectively. We developed strain-specific multiplex PCRs for the three RNA segments to accurately characterise the range of naturally infected hosts across central Queensland. Results described in this thesis show compelling evidence that parthenium and crownbeard are the major (symptomless) alternative hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. While both TSV strains had wide natural host ranges, the geographical distribution of each strain was closely associated with the respective distribution of their major alternative hosts. Both TSV strains were commonly found across large areas of central Queensland, but we only found strong evidence for the TSV-parthenium strain being associated with major disease outbreaks in nearby crops. The findings from this study demonstrate that both TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard have similar life cycles but some critical differences. We found both TSV strains to be highly seed transmitted from their respective major alternative hosts from naturally infected mother plants and survived in seed for more than 2 years. We conclusively demonstrated that both TSV strains were readily transmitted via virus-infected pollen taken from the major alternative hosts. This transmission was facilitated by the most commonly collected thrips species, Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis. These results illustrate the importance of seed transmission and efficient thrips vector species for the effective survival of these TSV strains in an often harsh environment and enables the rapid development of TSV disease epidemics in surrounding crops. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was naturally infected by, and an experimental host of TSV-parthenium. However, this infection combination resulted in non-viable crownbeard seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. Based on our field observations we hypothesised that there were differences in relative tolerance to TSV infection between different sunflower hybrids and that seasonal variation in disease levels was related to rainfall in the critical early crop stage. Results from our field trials conducted over multiple years conclusively demonstrated significant differences in tolerance to natural infections of TSV-parthenium in a wide range of sunflower hybrids. Glasshouse tests indicate the resistance to TSV-parthenium identified in the sunflower hybrids is also likely to be effective against TSV-crownbeard. We found a significant negative association between TSV disease incidence in sunflowers and accumulated rainfall in the months of March and April with increasing rainfall resulting in reduced levels of disease. Our results indicate that the use of tolerant sunflower germplasm will be a critical strategy to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower.

The upper respiratory tract is a natural reservoir of haemolytic Mannheimia species associated with ovine mastitis

Lamb suckling has been suggested to be an important way of infecting a ewe's udder with different bacteria, including Mannheimia haemolytica. To test the potential role of lambs in transferring Mannheimia species to the ewe’s udder, the restriction endonuclease cleavage patterns of isolates obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs were compared with those obtained from cases of mastitis. Sterile cotton swabs were used to collect nasopharyngeal samples from 50 ewes and 36 lambs from three flocks. M. haemolytica and Mannheimia glucosida as well as haemolytic Mannheimia ruminalis-like organisms were detected in the upper respiratory tract of lambs and ewes. Comparison of the restriction endonuclease cleavage patterns of the isolates suggested that the M. haemolytica isolates obtained from different milk samples from ewes with mastitis were more clonal than those obtained from the nasal swabs. However, some nasal isolates within both Mannheimia species had restriction endonuclease cleavage patterns identical to those obtained from milk samples from ewes with mastitis, indicating that lambs may have a role in transferring these organisms to the udder. More clonality was observed between the M. glucosida isolates than between M. haemolytica isolates.

Developmental biology and prey preference of Diomus notescens Blackburn (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae): A predator of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

The minute two-spotted ladybeetle, Diomus notescens Blackburn is a common predator of aphids and other pests in Australian agricultural crops, however little is known about the biology of D. notescens. The aim of this study was to provide information on the life cycle of this predator and improve our understanding of its biological control potential, particularly against one of the major pests of cotton, Aphis gossypii Glover. In laboratory experiments, juvenile development, prey consumption, as well as adult lifespan and fecundity were studied. Results from this study revealed that D. notescens could successfully complete development on A. gossypii, which at 25 °C required 21 days and during this period they each consume 129 ± 5.2 aphids. At 25 °C adult lifespan was 77 ± 9.6 days, with a mean daily prey consumption of 28 ± 1.8 aphids and a mean daily fecundity of 8 ± 0.5 eggs. Net reproductive rate was estimated as 187 ± 25.1 females and the intrinsic rate of increase was estimated as 0.14. Juvenile development was recorded at four constant temperatures (15, 21, 26 and 27 °C) and using a linear model, the lower threshold for D. notescens development was estimated to be 10 ± 0.6 °C with 285 ± 4.7 degree days required to complete development. A prey choice experiment studying predation rates revealed a strong preference for A. gossypii nymphs compared to Bemisia tabaci Gennadius eggs.

The role of spiders as predators of two lepidopteran Brassica pests

Spiders are thought to play a significant role in limiting pest outbreaks in agroecosystems such as vineyards, orchards and cotton. The diversity and impact of spiders in vegetable crops are less well understood, although there is evidence that predators may be important for suppression of lepidopteran pests in Brassica crops, particularly early in the season before parasitoids become established. Sampling was conducted in early season plantings of Brassicas in the Lockyer Valley (South East Queensland, Australia) in order to determine the most commonly occurring spider families. The most numerous were Theridiidae, which were more strongly associated with cauliflower and poorly associated with cabbage. The Lycosidae and Clubionidae/Miturgidae (formerly in the ‘catch-all’ family Clubionidae) also occurred commonly. Lycosidae (and to a lesser extent Salticidae) had above average abundance in Chinese cabbage and below average abundance in broccoli compared with average abundance for these spider families; Clubionidae/Miturgidae had above average abundance in cauliflower. Laboratory studies were then conducted to explore the predatory capacity of these three most commonly occurring spider families. All three were capable of feeding on larvae of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus), and cabbage cluster caterpillar, Crocidolomia pavonana (Fabricius), under laboratory conditions. Theridiidae, which are thought to prey on small pests such as leafhoppers and aphids, were able to successfully attack larvae up to five times their body size. Predation rates varied from an average of 1.7 (SE = 0.47) (1.6 control corrected) larvae consumed over a 24 h period in the case of the Theridiidae, to 3.3 (SE = 0.60) larvae for the Clubionidae/Miturgidae.