The impact of a future solar minimum on climate change projections in the Northern Hemisphere

Solar variability represents a source of uncertainty in the future forcings used in climate model simulations. Current knowledge indicates that a descent of solar activity into an extended minimum state is a possible scenario. With aid of experiments from a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we investigate the impact of a future solar minimum on Northern Hemisphere climate change projections. This scenario is constructed from recent 11 year solar-cycle minima of the solar spectral irradiance, and is therefore more conservative than the 'grand' minima employed in some previous modeling studies. Despite the small reduction in total solar irradiance (0.36 W m^-2), relatively large responses emerge in the winter Northern Hemisphere, with a reduction in regional-scale projected warming by up to 40%. To identify the origin of the enhanced regional signals, we assess the role of the different mechanisms by performing additional experiments forced only by irradiance changes at different wavelengths of the solar spectrum. We find that a reduction in visible irradiance drives changes in the stationary wave pattern of the North Pacific and sea-ice cover. A decrease in UV irradiance leads to smaller surface signals, although its regional effects are not negligible. These results point to a distinct but additive role of UV and visible irradiance in the Earth's climate, and stress the need to account for solar forcing as a source of uncertainty in regional scale projections.

MID-IR luminosities and UV/optical star formation rates at z < 1.4

Ultraviolet (UV) nonionizing continuum and mid-infrared (IR) emission constitute the basis of two widely used star formation (SF) indicators at intermediate and high redshifts. We study 2430 galaxies with z < 1.4 in the Extended Groth Strip with deep MIPS 24 μm observations from FIDEL, spectroscopy from DEEP2, and UV, optical, and near-IR photometry from the AEGIS. The data are coupled with dust-reddened stellar population models and Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting to estimate dust-corrected star formation rates (SFRs). In order to probe the dust heating from stellar populations of various ages, the derived SFRs were averaged over various timescales—from 100 Myr for "current" SFR (corresponding to young stars) to 1-3 Gyr for long-timescale SFRs (corresponding to the light-weighted age of the dominant stellar populations). These SED-based UV/optical SFRs are compared to total IR luminosities extrapolated from 24 μm observations, corresponding to 10-18 μm rest frame. The total IR luminosities are in the range of normal star-forming galaxies and luminous IR galaxies (10^10-10^12 L_☉). We show that the IR luminosity can be estimated from the UV and optical photometry to within a factor of 2, implying that most z < 1.4 galaxies are not optically thick. We find that for the blue, actively star-forming galaxies the correlation between the IR luminosity and the UV/optical SFR shows a decrease in scatter when going from shorter to longer SFR-averaging timescales. We interpret this as the greater role of intermediate age stellar populations in heating the dust than what is typically assumed. Equivalently, we observe that the IR luminosity is better correlated with dust-corrected optical luminosity than with dust-corrected UV light. We find that this holds over the entire redshift range. Many so-called green valley galaxies are simply dust-obscured actively star-forming galaxies. However, there exist 24 μm detected galaxies, some with L_IR>10^11 L_☉, yet with little current SF. For them a reasonable amount of dust absorption of stellar light (but presumably higher than in nearby early-type galaxies) is sufficient to produce the observed levels of IR, which includes a large contribution from intermediate and old stellar populations. In our sample, which contains very few ultraluminous IR galaxies, optical and X-ray active galactic nuclei do not contribute on average more than ~50% to the mid-IR luminosity, and we see no evidence for a large population of "IR excess" galaxies.

The star formation and extinction coevolution of UV-selected galaxies over 0.05 < z < 1.2

We use a new stacking technique to obtain mean mid-IR and far-IR to far-UV flux ratios over the rest-frame near-UV, near-IR color-magnitude diagram. We employ COMBO-17 redshifts and COMBO-17 optical, GALEX far- and near-UV, and Spitzer IRAC and MIPS mid-IR photometry. This technique permits us to probe the infrared excess (IRX), the ratio of far-IR to far-UV luminosity, and the specific star formation rate (SSFR) and their coevolution over 2 orders of magnitude of stellar mass and over redshift 0.1 < z < 1.2. We find that the SSFR and the characteristic mass (Script M_0) above which the SSFR drops increase with redshift (downsizing). At any given epoch, the IRX is an increasing function of mass up to Script M_0. Above this mass the IRX falls, suggesting gas exhaustion. In a given mass bin below Script M_0, the IRX increases with time in a fashion consistent with enrichment. We interpret these trends using a simple model with a Schmidt-Kennicutt law and extinction that tracks gas density and enrichment. We find that the average IRX and SSFR follow a galaxy age parameter ξ, which is determined mainly by the galaxy mass and time since formation. We conclude that blue-sequence galaxies have properties which show simple, systematic trends with mass and time such as the steady buildup of heavy elements in the interstellar media of evolving galaxies and the exhaustion of gas in galaxies that are evolving off the blue sequence. The IRX represents a tool for selecting galaxies at various stages of evolution.