油气勘探风险评价与决策技术研究

PetroChina and other national petroleum incorporations need rigorous procedures and practical methods in risk evaluation and exploration decision at home and abroad to safeguard their international exploration practice in exploration licence bidding, finding appropriate ratio of risk sharing with partners, as well as avoiding high risk projects and other key exploration activities. However, due to historical reasons, we are only at the beginning of a full study and methodology development in exploration risk evaluation and decision. No rigorous procedure and practical methods are available in our exercises of international exploration. Completely adopting foreign procedure, methods and tools by our national incorporations are not practical because of the differences of the current economic and management systems in China. The objective of this study is to establish a risk evaluation and decision system with independent intellectual property right in oil and gas exploration so that a smooth transition from our current practice into international norm can take place. The system developed in this dissertation includes the following four components: 1. A set of quantitative criteria for risk evaluation is derived on the basis of an anatomy of the parameters from thirty calibration regions national wide as well as the characteristics and the geological factors controlling oil and gas occurrence in the major petroleum-bearing basins in China, which provides the technical support for the risk quantification in oil and gas exploration. 2. Through analysis of existing methodology, procedure and methods of exploration risk evaluation considering spatial information are proposed. The method, utilizing Mahalanobis Distance (MD) and fuzzy logic for data and information integration, provides probabilistic models on the basis of MD and fuzzy logic classification criteria, thus quantifying the exploration risk using Bayesian theory. A projection of the geological risk into spatial domain provides a probability map of oil and gas occurrence in the area under study. The application of this method to the Nanpu Sag shows that this method not only correctly predicted the oil and gas occurrence in the areas where Beibu and Laoyemiao oil fields are found in the northwest of the onshore area, but also predicted Laopu south, Nanpu south and Hatuo potential areas in the offshore part where exploration maturity was very low. The prediction of the potential areas are subsequently confirmed by 17 exploration wells in the offshore area with 81% success, indicating this method is very effective for exploration risk visualization and reduction. 3. On the basis of “Methods and parameters of economic evaluation for petroleum exploration and development projects in China”, a ”pyramid” method for sensitivity analysis was developed, which meets not only the need for exploration target evaluation and exploration decision at home, but also allows a transition from our current practice to international norm in exploration decision. This provides the foundation for the development of a software product “Exploration economic evaluation and decision system of PetroChina” (EDSys). 4. To solve problem in methodology of exploration decision, effort was made on the method of project portfolio management. A drilling decision method was developed employing the concept of geologically risked net present value. This method overcame the dilemma of handling simultaneously both geological risk and portfolio uncertainty, thus casting light into the application of modern portfolio theory to the evaluation of high risk petroleum exploration projects.

幼儿分类能力发展及促进的实验研究

Classification is a kind of basic cognitive process, and category is an important way for human beings to define the world. At the same time, categories are organized in a hierarchical way, which makes it possible for human beings to process information efficiency. For those reasons, the development of classification ability is always one of the foci in developmental psychology. By using the methods of spontaneous and trained classification of both familiar stimuli materials and artificial concepts, this research explored the 4-6 year old children's classification criteria. And by the artificial concept system formed in these classification criteria experiments, the mastery degree of class hierarchy in these young children was analyzed. The main results and conclusions are: 1) The classification ability increases quickly among kindergarteners from 4 to 6 year old: the 4 year old children seemed unable to classify objects by classificatory criteria, however, the 6 year ones had shown the ability in many experimental conditions. But the main basis of classificatory criteria in these young children, including 6 year old ones, was the functional relation of the objects but the conceptual relations, and their classification criteria was not consistent because they seem to be easily affected by experimental conditions. 2) The age of 5 is a more sensitive period of classification ability development: for the children of 5 year old, it was found that their classification ability was easily enhanced by training. The zone of proximal development in classification ability by category standard could probably lie in this period of age. 3) Knowledge is an important factor that affects young children's classification ability, meanwhile, their classification activity are affected by cognitive processing ability: young children exhibited different classification ability as they had different understanding of stimuli materials. Kindergarteners of different age were significantly different in their classification ability as the difference in cognitive processing ability, even if they had the same knowledge about the stimuli materials. 4) Different properties of class hierarchy are different in difficulty for young children: the 5-6 year old children showed that the could master the transitivity of the class hierarchy. No matter under what learning condition, they could answer most of the transitivity questions correctly and infer the property of the sub-class according to that of the super-class. The young children at 5-6 years old had mastered the branching property of class hierarchy at a relative high level, but their answers were easily affected by the hints in the questions. However, it seemed that the asymmetry of class hierarchy was difficult for young children to learn. Because young children could not understand the class inclusion relation, they always drew wrong conclusions about super-class from sub-class in their classification.