35 resultados para Bayesian statistical decision theory

em Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid Portal


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A statistical thermodynamics theory of polydisperse polymer blends based on a lattice model description of a fluid is formulated. Characterization of a binary polydisperse polymer mixture requires a knowledge of the pure polymer system and the interaction energy. It is assumed that the intrinsic and interactive properties of polymer (for example, T*, P*, rho*, and epsilon(ij)*) are independent of molecular size. Thermodynamic properties of ternary and higher order mixtures are completely defined in terms of the pure fluid polymer parameters and the binary interaction energies. Thermodynamic stability criteria for the phase transitions of a binary mixture are shown. The binodal and spinodal of general binary systems and of special binary systems are discussed.

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A statistical thermodynamics theory of polydisperse polymer mixtures with strong interaction between dissimilar components based on a lattice fluid model is formulated. Expressions for the free energy, equation of state, phase stability and spinodal for a polydisperse, binary polymer mixture with strong interaction are derived.

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A statistical thermodynamics theory of polydisperse polymers based on a lattice model of fluids is formulated. Pure polydisperse polymer can be completely characterized by three scale factors and the molecular weight distribution of the system. The equation of state does not satisfy a simple corresponding-states principle, except for a polymer fluid of sufficiently high molecular weight. The relationships between thermal expansion coefficient alpha and isothermal compressibility beta with reduced variables are also predicted.

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A statistical thermodynamics theory of a polydisperse polymer based on a lattice model of a fluid is formulated. The pure polydisperse polymer is completely characterized by three scale factors and the distribution law of the system. The equation of state does not satisfy a simple corresponding state principle, except for the polymer fluid with sufficiently high molecular weight.

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Based on the statistical thermodynamics theory, a theoretical model of adsorbate induced surface stress of adatoms adsorption on solid surface is presented. For the low coverage, the interaction between the adsorbed molecules is entirely negligible and the adsorption induced surface stress is found to be the function of the coverage and the adsorption energy change with strain. For the high coverage, the adsorbate-adsorbate interaction contributes to the adsorption-induced surface stress effectively. In the case of carbon adsorption on the Ni(100) surface, the value of 0.5 is obtained as a characteristic coverage to decide whether to take the interaction between the adsorabtes into consideration and the results also show that the adsorption induces a compressive surface stress.

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The statistical-mechanics theory of the passive scalar field convected by turbulence, developed in an earlier paper [Phys. Fluids 28, 1299 (1985)], is extended to the case of a small molecular Prandtl number. The set of governing integral equations is solved by the equation-error method. The resultant scalar-variance spectrum for the inertial range is F(k)~x−5/3/[1+1.21x1.67(1+0.353x2.32)], where x is the wavenumber scaled by Corrsin's dissipation wavenumber. This result reduces to the − (5)/(3) law in the inertial-convective range. It also approximately reduces to the − (17)/(3) law in the inertial-diffusive range, but the proportionality constant differs from Batchelor's by a factor of 3.6.

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We present a new approach for estimating mixing between populations based on non-recombining markers, specifically Y-chromosome microsatellites. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian statistical approach is used to calculate the posterior probability

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Range and load play key roles in the problem of attacks on links in random scale-free (RSF) networks. In this paper we obtain the approximate relation between range and load in RSF networks by the generating function theory, and then give an estimation about the impact of attacks on the efficiency of the network. The results show that short-range attacks are more destructive for RSF networks, and are confirmed numerically.

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In this paper, we revisit the issue of the public goods game (PGG) on a heterogeneous graph. By introducing a new effective topology parameter, 'degree grads' phi, we clearly classify the agents into three kinds, namely, C-0, C-1, and D. The mechanism for the heterogeneous topology promoting cooperation is discussed in detail from the perspective of C0C1D, which reflects the fact that the unreasoning imitation behaviour of C-1 agents, who are 'cheated' by the well-paid C-0 agents inhabiting special positions, stabilizes the formation of the cooperation community. The analytical and simulation results for certain parameters are found to coincide well with each other. The C0C1D case provides a picture of the actual behaviours in real society and thus is potentially of interest.

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In communication networks such as the Internet, the relationship between packet generation rate and time is similar to a rectangle wavefunction due to the rhythm of humans. Thus, we investigate the traffic dynamics on a network with a rectangle wavepacket generation rate. It is found that the critical delivering capacity parameter beta(c) (which separates the congested phase and the free phase) decreases significantly with the duty cycle r of the rectangle wave for package generation. And, in the congested phase, more collective generation of packets (smaller r) is helpful for decreasing the packet aggregation rate. Moreover, it is found that the congested phase can be divided into two regions, i.e., region1 and region2, where the distributions of queue lengths are nonlinear and linear, respectively. Also, the linear expression for the distribution of queue lengths in region2 is obtained analytically. Our work reveals an obvious effect of the rectangle wave on the traffic dynamics and the queue length distribution in the system, which is of essential interest and may provide insights into the designing of work-rest schedules and routing strategies.

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Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution, and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases. The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37A degrees 27.6' N, 122A degrees 15.1' E), China, are used to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different spectral widths (nu=0.3-0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988) distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory.

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In the paper through extensive study and design, the technical plan for establishing the exploration database center is made to combine imported and self developed techniques. By research and repeated experiment a modern database center has been set up with its hardware and network having advanced performance, its system well configured, its data store and management complete, and its data support being fast and direct. Through study on the theory, method and model of decision an exploration decision assistant schema is designed with one decision plan of well location decision support system being evaluated and put into action. 1. Study on the establishment of Shengli exploration database center Research is made on the hardware configuration of the database center including its workstations and all connected hardware and system. The hardware of the database center is formed by connecting workstations, microcomputer workstations, disk arrays, and those equipments used for seismic processing and interpretation. Research on the data store and management includes the analysis of the contents to be managed, data flow, data standard, data QC, data backup and restore policy, optimization of database system. A reasonable data management regulation and workflow is made and the scientific exploration data management system is created. Data load is done by working out a schedule firstly and at last 200 more projects of seismic surveys has been loaded amount to 25TB. 2. Exploration work support system and its application Seismic data processing system support has the following features, automatic extraction of seismic attributes, GIS navigation, data order, extraction of any sized data cube, pseudo huge capacity disk array, standard output exchange format etc. The prestack data can be accessed by the processing system or data can be transferred to other processing system through standard exchange format. For supporting seismic interpretation system the following features exist such as auto scan and store of interpretation result, internal data quality control etc. the interpretation system is connected directly with database center to get real time support of seismic data, formation data and well data. Comprehensive geological study support is done through intranet with the ability to query or display data graphically on the navigation system under some geological constraints. Production management support system is mainly used to collect, analyze and display production data with its core technology on the controlled data collection and creation of multiple standard forms. 3. exploration decision support system design By classification of workflow and data flow of all the exploration stages and study on decision theory and method, target of each decision step, decision model and requirement, three concept models has been formed for the Shengli exploration decision support system including the exploration distribution support system, the well location support system and production management support system. the well location decision support system has passed evaluation and been put into action. 4. Technical advance Hardware and software match with high performance for the database center. By combining parallel computer system, database server, huge capacity ATL, disk array, network and firewall together to create the first exploration database center in China with reasonable configuration, high performance and able to manage the whole data sets of exploration. Huge exploration data management technology is formed where exploration data standards and management regulations are made to guarantee data quality, safety and security. Multifunction query and support system for comprehensive exploration information support. It includes support system for geological study, seismic processing and interpretation and production management. In the system a lot of new database and computer technology have been used to provide real time information support for exploration work. Finally is the design of Shengli exploration decision support system. 5. Application and benefit Data storage has reached the amount of 25TB with thousand of users in Shengli oil field to access data to improve work efficiency multiple times. The technology has also been applied by many other units of SINOPEC. Its application of providing data to a project named Exploration achievements and Evaluation of Favorable Targets in Hekou Area shortened the data preparation period from 30 days to 2 days, enriching data abundance 15 percent and getting information support from the database center perfectly. Its application to provide former processed result for a project named Pre-stack depth migration in Guxi fracture zone reduced the amount of repeated process and shortened work period of one month and improved processing precision and quality, saving capital investment of data processing of 30 million yuan. It application by providing project database automatically in project named Geological and seismic study of southern slope zone of Dongying Sag shortened data preparation time so that researchers have more time to do research, thus to improve interpretation precision and quality.

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On the issue of geological hazard evaluation(GHE), taking remote sensing and GIS systems as experimental environment, assisting with some programming development, this thesis combines multi-knowledges of geo-hazard mechanism, statistic learning, remote sensing (RS), high-spectral recognition, spatial analysis, digital photogrammetry as well as mineralogy, and selects geo-hazard samples from Hong Kong and Three Parallel River region as experimental data, to study two kinds of core questions of GHE, geo-hazard information acquiring and evaluation model. In the aspect of landslide information acquiring by RS, three detailed topics are presented, image enhance for visual interpretation, automatic recognition of landslide as well as quantitative mineral mapping. As to the evaluation model, the latest and powerful data mining method, support vector machine (SVM), is introduced to GHE field, and a serious of comparing experiments are carried out to verify its feasibility and efficiency. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method to forecast the distribution of landslides if rainfall in future is known baseing on historical rainfall and corresponding landslide susceptibility map. The details are as following: (a) Remote sensing image enhancing methods for geo-hazard visual interpretation. The effect of visual interpretation is determined by RS data and image enhancing method, for which the most effective and regular technique is image merge between high-spatial image and multi-spectral image, but there are few researches concerning the merging methods of geo-hazard recognition. By the comparing experimental of six mainstream merging methods and combination of different remote sensing data source, this thesis presents merits of each method ,and qualitatively analyzes the effect of spatial resolution, spectral resolution and time phase on merging image. (b) Automatic recognition of shallow landslide by RS image. The inventory of landslide is the base of landslide forecast and landslide study. If persistent collecting of landslide events, updating the geo-hazard inventory in time, and promoting prediction model incessantly, the accuracy of forecast would be boosted step by step. RS technique is a feasible method to obtain landslide information, which is determined by the feature of geo-hazard distribution. An automatic hierarchical approach is proposed to identify shallow landslides in vegetable region by the combination of multi-spectral RS imagery and DEM derivatives, and the experiment is also drilled to inspect its efficiency. (c) Hazard-causing factors obtaining. Accurate environmental factors are the key to analyze and predict the risk of regional geological hazard. As to predict huge debris flow, the main challenge is still to determine the startup material and its volume in debris flow source region. Exerting the merits of various RS technique, this thesis presents the methods to obtain two important hazard-causing factors, DEM and alteration mineral, and through spatial analysis, finds the relationship between hydrothermal clay alteration minerals and geo-hazards in the arid-hot valleys of Three Parallel Rivers region. (d) Applying support vector machine (SVM) to landslide susceptibility mapping. Introduce the latest and powerful statistical learning theory, SVM, to RGHE. SVM that proved an efficient statistic learning method can deal with two-class and one-class samples, with feature avoiding produce ‘pseudo’ samples. 55 years historical samples in a natural terrain of Hong Kong are used to assess this method, whose susceptibility maps obtained by one-class SVM and two-class SVM are compared to that obtained by logistic regression method. It can conclude that two-class SVM possesses better prediction efficiency than logistic regression and one-class SVM. However, one-class SVM, only requires failed cases, has an advantage over the other two methods as only "failed" case information is usually available in landslide susceptibility mapping. (e) Predicting the distribution of rainfall-induced landslides by time-series analysis. Rainfall is the most dominating factor to bring in landslides. More than 90% losing and casualty by landslides is introduced by rainfall, so predicting landslide sites under certain rainfall is an important geological evaluating issue. With full considering the contribution of stable factors (landslide susceptibility map) and dynamic factors (rainfall), the time-series linear regression analysis between rainfall and landslide risk mapis presented, and experiments based on true samples prove that this method is perfect in natural region of Hong Kong. The following 4 practicable or original findings are obtained: 1) The RS ways to enhance geo-hazards image, automatic recognize shallow landslides, obtain DEM and mineral are studied, and the detailed operating steps are given through examples. The conclusion is practical strongly. 2) The explorative researching about relationship between geo-hazards and alteration mineral in arid-hot valley of Jinshajiang river is presented. Based on standard USGS mineral spectrum, the distribution of hydrothermal alteration mineral is mapped by SAM method. Through statistic analysis between debris flows and hazard-causing factors, the strong correlation between debris flows and clay minerals is found and validated. 3) Applying SVM theory (especially one-class SVM theory) to the landslide susceptibility mapping and system evaluation for its performance is also carried out, which proves that advantages of SVM in this field. 4) Establishing time-serial prediction method for rainfall induced landslide distribution. In a natural study area, the distribution of landslides induced by a storm is predicted successfully under a real maximum 24h rainfall based on the regression between 4 historical storms and corresponding landslides.

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3D wave equation prestack depth migration is the effective tool for obtaining the exact imaging result of complex geology structures. It's a part of the 3D seismic data processing. 3D seismic data processing belongs to high dimension signal processing, and there are some difficult problems to do with. They are: How to process high dimension operators? How to improve the focusing? and how to construct the deconvolution operator? The realization of 3D wave equation prestack depth migration, not only realized the leap from poststack to prestack, but also provided the important means to solve the difficult problems in high dimension signal processing. In this thesis, I do a series research especially for the solve of the difficult problems around the 3D wave equation prestack depth migration and using it as a mean. So this thesis service for the realization of 3D wave equation prestack depth migration for one side and improve the migration effect for another side. This thesis expatiates in five departs. Summarizes the main contents as the follows: In the first part, I have completed the projection from 3D data point area to low dimension are using de big matrix transfer and trace rearrangement, and realized the liner processing of high dimension signal. Firstly, I present the mathematics expression of 3D seismic data and the mean according to physics, present the basic ideal of big matrix transfer and describe the realization of five transfer models for example. Secondly, I present the basic ideal and rules for the rearrange and parallel calculate of 3D traces, and give a example. In the conventional DMO focusing method, I recall the history of DM0 process firstly, give the fundamental of DMO process and derive the equation of DMO process and it's impulse response. I also prove the equivalence between DMO and prestack time migration, from the kinematic character of DMO. And derive the relationship between DMO base on wave equation and prestack time migration. Finally, I give the example of DMO process flow and synthetic data of theoretical models. In the wave equation prestak depth migration, I firstly recall the history of migration from time to depth, from poststack to prestack and from 2D to 3D. And conclude the main migration methods, point out their merit and shortcoming. Finally, I obtain the common image point sets using the decomposed migration program code.In the residual moveout, I firstly describe the Viterbi algorithm based on Markov process and compound decision theory and how to solve the shortest path problem using Viterbi algorithm. And based on this ideal, I realized the residual moveout of post 3D wave equation prestack depth migration. Finally, I give the example of residual moveout of real 3D seismic data. In the migration Green function, I firstly give the concept of migration Green function and the 2D Green function migration equation for the approximate of far field. Secondly, I prove the equivalence of wave equation depth extrapolation algorithms. And then I derive the equation of Green function migration. Finally, I present the response and migration result of Green function for point resource, analyze the effect of migration aperture to prestack migration result. This research is benefit for people to realize clearly the effect of migration aperture to migration result, and study on the Green function deconvolution to improve the focusing effect of migration.

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This paper is aimed at establishing a statistical theory of rotational and vibrational excitation of polyatomic molecules by an intense IR laser. Starting from the Wigner function of quantum statistical mechanics, we treat the rotational motion in the classical approximation; the vibrational modes are classified into active ones which are coupled directly with the laser and the background modes which are not coupled with the laser. The reduced Wigner function, i.e., the Wigner function integrated over all background coordinates should satisfy an integro-differential equation. We introduce the idea of ``viscous damping'' to handle the interaction between the active modes and the background. The damping coefficient can be calculated with the aid of the well-known Schwartz–Slawsky–Herzfeld theory. The resulting equation is solved by the method of moment equations. There is only one adjustable parameter in our scheme; it is introduced due to the lack of precise knowledge about the molecular potential. The theory developed in this paper explains satisfactorily the recent absorption experiments of SF6 irradiated by a short pulse CO2 laser, which are in sharp contradiction with the prevailing quasi-continuum theory. We also refined the density of energy levels which is responsible for the muliphoton excitation of polyatomic molecules.