5 resultados para disasters

em Cambridge University Engineering Department Publications Database


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It is suggested that previous data indicate 3 major epidemics of kala-azar in Assam between 1875 and 1950, with inter-epidemic periods of 30-45 and 20 years. This deviates from the popular view of regular cycles with a 10-20 year period. A deterministic mathematical model of kala-azar is used to find the simplest explanation for the timing of the 3 epidemics, paying particular attention to the role of extrinsic (drugs, natural disasters, other infectious diseases) versus intrinsic (host and vector dynamics, birth and death rates, immunity) processes in provoking the second. We conclude that, whilst widespread influenza in 1918-1919 may have magnified the second epidemic, intrinsic population processes provide the simplest explanation for its timing and synchrony throughout Assam. The model also shows that the second inter-epidemic period is expected to be shorter than the first, even in the absence of extrinsic agents, and highlights the importance of a small fraction of patients becoming chronically infectious (with post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) after treatment during an epidemic.

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Concerns over loosely compacted fill slopes stability in Hong Kong arouse in the past few decades, since the Sau Mau Ping disasters in 1972 and 1976. Research conducted on loose fill slopes in the past few years aimed to understand the failure mechanisms of a loosely compacted fill slope. Recently, layering effect has been hypothesised to be a possible condition in the fill slopes leading to a fast flowslide triggered by a rise of water table. Centrifuge experiments were conducted to investigate the layering effect on a model granular slope and hence to determine the triggering mechanisms of seepage induced slope failure. Test results showed that slope failure can be easily triggered in layered fill model slopes when seepage is restricted and localised pore water pressure is allowed to build up within the slope. © 2006 Taylor & Francis Group, London.