Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics.

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Do we know the strength of the chorioamnion? A critical review and analysis

The chorioamnion is the membrane that surrounds the fetus during gestation. Normally, it must remain intact for the duration of pregnancy, 37-42 weeks, and only rupture during or just before labour and delivery of the fetus. In a significant number (3%) of all births, this does not happen, and membranes rupture before term, resulting in preterm birth and significant perinatal morbidity. It is known that the material properties of chorioamnion may play a major role in mechanical rupture; a number of studies have been undertaken to characterise the physical nature of chorioamnion and examine factors that may predispose to rupture. However, the existing literature is inconsistent in its choice of both physical testing methods and data analysis techniques, motivating the current review. Experimental data from a large number of chorioamnion mechanical studies were collated, and data were converted to standard engineering quantities. The failure strength of the chorioamnion membrane was found consistently to value approximately 0.9 MPa. It is hoped that past and future studies of membrane mechanics can provide insight into the role of chorioamnion in labour and delivery. In addition, biomechanical approaches can help elucidate the potential causes of early rupture, and suggest future protocols or treatments that could both diagnose and prevent its occurrence. © 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.