Avances en algoritmos de estimación de distribuciones. Alternativas en el aprendizaje y representación de problemas

131 p.: graf.

Développement des méthodes de stabilisation pour la conception des circuits hyperfréquences : application à l'optimisation d'un amplificateur de puissance spatial

209 p. : graf.

Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant

In this paper we analyze the valuation of options stemming from the flexibility in an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Power Plant. First we use as a base case the opportunity to invest in a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Power Plant, deriving the optimal investment rule as a function of fuel price and the remaining life of the right to invest. Additionally, the analytical solution for a perpetual option is obtained. Second, the valuation of an operating IGCC Power Plant is studied, with switching costs between states and a choice of the best operation mode. The valuation of this plant serves as a base to obtain the value of the option to delay an investment of this type. Finally, we derive the value of an opportunity to invest either in a NGCC or IGCC Power Plant, that is, to choose between an inflexible and a flexible technology, respectively. Numerical computations involve the use of one- and two-dimensional binomial lattices that support a mean-reverting process for the fuel prices. Basic parameter values refer to an actual IGCC power plant currently in operation.

Analysis of volatility transmissions in integrated and interconnected markets: The case of the Iberian and French markets

This paper models the mean and volatility spillovers of prices within the integrated Iberian and the interconnected Spanish and French electricity markets. Using the constant (CCC) and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) bivariate models with three different specifications of the univariate variance processes, we study the extent to which increasing interconnection and harmonization in regulation have favoured price convergence. The data consist of daily prices calculated as the arithmetic mean of the hourly prices over a span from July 1st 2007 until February 29th 2012. The DCC model in which the variances of the univariate processes are specified with a VARMA(1,1) fits the data best for the integrated MIBEL whereas a CCC model with a GARCH(1,1) specification for the univariate variance processes is selected to model the price series in Spain and France. Results show that there are significant mean and volatility spillovers in the MIBEL, indicating strong interdependence between the two markets, while there is a weaker evidence of integration between the Spanish and French markets. We provide new evidence that the EU target of achieving a single electricity market largely depends on increasing trade between countries and homogeneous rules of market functioning.

Towards a participatory integrated assessment approach for planning and managing Natura 2000 network sites

Managing protected areas implies dealing with complex social-ecological systems where multiple dimensions (social, institutional, economic and ecological) interact over time for the delivery of ecosystem services. Uni-dimensional and top-down management approaches have been unable to capture this complexity. Instead, new integrated approaches that acknowledge the diversity of social actors in the decision making process are required. In this paper we put forward a novel participatory assessment approach which integrates multiple methodologies to reflect different value articulating institutions in the case of a Natura 2000 network site in the Basque Country. It integrates within a social multi-criteria evaluation framework, both the economic values of ecosystem services through a choice experiment model and ecological values by means of a spatial bio-geographic assessment. By capturing confronting social and institutional conflicts in protected areas the participatory integrated assessment approach presented here can help decision makers for better planning and managing Natura 2000 sites.