Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

Analysis of Sample Frames and Subsampling Methods for Reef Fish Surveys

Introduction: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Biogeography Branch has conducted surveys of reef fish in the Caribbean since 1999. Surveys were initially undertaken to identify essential fish habitat, but later were used to characterize and monitor reef fish populations and benthic communities over time. The Branch’s goals are to develop knowledge and products on the distribution and ecology of living marine resources and provide resource managers, scientists and the public with an improved ecosystem basis for making decisions. The Biogeography Branch monitors reef fishes and benthic communities in three study areas: (1) St. John, USVI, (2) Buck Island, St. Croix, USVI, and (3) La Parguera, Puerto Rico. In addition, the Branch has characterized the reef fish and benthic communities in the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary and around the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Reef fish data are collected using a stratified random sampling design and stringent measurement protocols. Over time, the sampling design has changed in order to meet different management objectives (i.e. identification of essential fish habitat vs. monitoring), but the designs have always remained: • Probabilistic – to allow inferences to a larger targeted population, • Objective – to satisfy management objectives, and • Stratified – to reduce sampling costs and obtain population estimates for strata. There are two aspects of the sampling design which are now under consideration and are the focus of this report: first, the application of a sample frame, identified as a set of points or grid elements from which a sample is selected; and second, the application of subsampling in a two-stage sampling design. To evaluate these considerations, the pros and cons of implementing a sampling frame and subsampling are discussed. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of each design on accuracy (bias), feasibility and sampling cost (precision). Further, this report presents an analysis of data to determine the optimal number of subsamples to collect if subsampling were used. (PDF contains 19 pages)

Support for Integrated Ecosystem Assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserves System (NERRS), Volume II: Assessment of Ecological Condition and Stressor Impacts in Subtidal Waters of the North Carolina NERRS

A study was conducted to assess the status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks in subtidal estuarine waters throughout the North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS) (Currituck Sound, Rachel Carson, Masonboro Island, and Zeke’s Island). Field work was conducted in September 2006 and incorporated multiple indicators of ecosystem condition including measures of water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundances of benthic fauna, fish contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). A probabilistic sampling design permitted statistical estimation of the spatial extent of degraded versus non-degraded condition across these estuaries relative to specified threshold levels of the various indicators (where possible). With some exceptions, the status of these reserves appeared to be in relatively good to fair ecological condition overall, with the majority of the area (about 54%) having various water quality, sediment quality, and biological (benthic) condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. Only three stations, representing 10.5% of the area, had one or more of these indicators rated as poor/degraded in all three categories. While such a conclusion is encouraging from a coastal management perspective, it should be viewed with some caution. For example, although co-occurrences of adverse biological and abiotic environmental conditions were limited, at least one indicator of ecological condition rated in the poor/degraded range was observed over a broader area (35.5%) represented by 11 of the 30 stations sampled. In addition, the fish-tissue contaminant data were not included in these overall spatial estimates; however, the majority of samples (77% of fish that were analyzed, from 79%, of stations where fish were caught) contained inorganic arsenic above the consumption limits for human cancer risks, though most likely derived from natural sources. Similarly, aesthetic indicators are not reflected in these spatial estimates of ecological condition, though there was evidence of noxious odors in sediments at many of the stations. Such symptoms reflect a growing realization that North Carolina estuaries are under multiple pressures from a variety of natural and human influences. These data also suggest that, while the current status of overall ecological condition appears to be good to fair, long-term monitoring is warranted to track potential changes in the future. This study establishes an important baseline of overall ecological condition within NC NERRS that can be used to evaluate any such future changes and to trigger appropriate management actions in this rapidly evolving coastal environment. (PDF contains 76 pages)

Changes in catch rates and length and age at maturity, but not growth, of an estuarine plotosid (Cnidoglanis macrocephalus) after heavy fishing

The hypothesis that heavy fishing pressure has led to changes in the biological characteristics of the estuary cobbler (Cnidoglanis macrocephalus) was tested in a large seasonally open estuary in southwestern Australia, where this species completes its life cycle and is the most valuable commercial fish species. Comparisons were made between seasonal data collected for this plotosid (eeltail catfish) in Wilson Inlet during 2005–08 and those recorded with the same fishery-independent sampling regime during 1987–89. These comparisons show that the proportions of larger and older individuals and the catch rates in the more recent period were far lower, i.e., they constituted reductions of 40% for fish ≥430 mm total length, 62% for fish ≥4 years of age, and 80% for catch rate. In addition, total mortality and fishing-induced mortality estimates increased by factors of ~2 and 2.5, respectively. The indications that the abundance and proportion of older C. macrocephalus declined between the two periods are consistent with the perception of long-term commercial fishermen and their shift toward using a smaller maximum gill net mesh to target this species. The sustained heavy fishing pressure on C. macrocephalus between 1987–89 and 2005–08 was accompanied by a marked reduction in length and age at maturity of this species. The shift in probabilistic maturation reaction norms toward smaller fish in 2005–08 and the lack of a conspicuous change in growth between the two periods indicate that the maturity changes were related to fishery-induced evolution rather than to compensatory responses to reduced fish densities.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean and estuarine waters of the U.S. South Atlantic Bight: 2000-2004

In March-April 2004, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and State of Florida (FL) conducted a study to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) portion of the U.S. continental shelf and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to West Palm Beach, Florida and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). Conditions of these offshore waters are compared to those of southeastern estuaries, based on data from similar EMAP/NCA surveys conducted in 2000-2004 by EPA, NOAA, and partnering southeastern states (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) (NCA database for estuaries, EPA Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze FL). Data from a total of 747 estuarine stations are included in this database. As for the offshore sites, the estuarine samples were collected using standard methods and indicators applied in previous coastal EMAP/NCA surveys including the probabilistic sampling design and multiple indicators of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthos and fish). The majority of the SAB had high levels of DO in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of "good" water quality. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at all sites throughout the coastal-ocean survey area and in 76% of estuarine waters. Twenty-one percent of estuarine bottom waters had moderate levels of DO between 2 and 5 mg L-1 and 3% had DO levels below 2 mg L-1. The majority of sites with DO in the low range considered to be hypoxic (< 2 mg L-1) occurred in North Carolina estuaries. There also was a notable concentration of stations with moderate DO levels (2 – 5 mg L-1) in Georgia and South Carolina estuaries. Approximately 58% of the estuarine area had moderate levels of chlorophyll a (5-10 μg L-1) and about 8% of the area had higher levels, in excess of 10 μg L-1, indicative of eutrophication. The elevated chlorophyll a levels appeared to be widespread throughout the estuaries of the region. In contrast, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of chlorophyll a with 100% of the offshore survey area having values < 5 μg L-1.

Support for integrated ecosystem assessments of NOAA’s National Estuarine Research Reserve System (NERRS): assessment of ecological condition and stressor impacts in subtidal waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve

A study was conducted in June 2009 to assess the current status of ecological condition and potential human-health risks throughout subtidal estuarine waters of the Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve (SINERR) along the coast of Georgia. Samples were collected for multiple indicators of ecosystem condition, including water quality (dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, pH, nutrients and chlorophyll, suspended solids, fecal coliform bacteria and coliphages), sediment quality (granulometry, organic matter content, chemical contaminant concentrations), biological condition (diversity and abundance of benthic fauna, fish tissue contaminant levels and pathologies), and human dimensions (fish-tissue contaminant levels relative to human-health consumption limits, various aesthetic properties). Use of a probabilistic sampling design facilitated the calculation of statistics to estimate the spatial extent of the Reserve classified according to various categories (i.e., Good, Fair, Poor) of ecological condition relative to established thresholds of these indicators, where available. Overall, the majority of subtidal habitat in the SINERR appeared to be healthy, with over half (56.7 %) of the Reserve area having water quality, sediment quality, and benthic biological condition indicators rated in the healthy to intermediate range of corresponding guideline thresholds. None of the stations sampled had one or more indicators in all three categories rated as poor/degraded. While these results are encouraging, it should be noted that one or more indicators were rated as poor/degraded in at least one of the three categories over 40% of the Reserve study area, represented by 12 of the 30 stations sampled. Although measures of fish tissue chemical contamination were not included in any of the above estimates, a number of trace metals, pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found at low yet detectable levels in some fish at stations where fish were caught. Levels of mercury and total PCBs in some fish specimens fell within EPA guideline values considered safe, given a consumption rate of no more than four fish meals per month. Moreover, PCB congener profiles in sediments and fish in the SINERR exhibit a relative abundance of higher-chlorinated homologs which are uniquely characteristic of Aroclor 1268. It has been well-documented that sediments and fish in the creeks and marshes near the LCP Chemicals Superfund site, near Brunswick, Georgia, also display this congener pattern associated with Aroclor 1268, a highly chlorinated mixture of PCBs used extensively at a chlor-alkali plant that was in operation at the LCP site from 1955-1994. This report provides results suggesting that the protected habitats lying within the boundaries of the SINERR may be experiencing the effects of a legacy of chemical contamination at a site over 40km away. These effects, as well as other potential stressors associated with increased development of nearby coastal areas, underscore the importance of establishing baseline ecological conditions that can be used to track potential changes in the future and to guide management and stewardship of the otherwise relatively unspoiled ecosystems of the SINERR.

Cruise report: regional assessment of ecosystem condition and stressor impacts along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Shelf. NOAA Ship 'Nancy Foster' NF-11-07-RACOW (August 8-16, 2011)

This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted along a portion of the U.S. continental shelf in northwestern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), at navigable depths along the coastline seaward to the shelf break (~100m) from about 89°30' W to 95°28' W longitude, August 8 – 16, 2011 on NOAA Ship Nancy Foster Cruise NF-11-07-RACOW. Synoptic sampling of multiple ecological indicators was conducted at each of 34 stations throughout these waters using a random probabilistic sampling design. The original study design consisted of 50 stations extending from the Mississippi delta all the way to the U.S./Mexican border, but vessel failures precluded sampling at 16 stations within the western-most portion of the study area. At each station samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants in sediments and target demersal biota; sediment toxicity; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. Other indicators, from a human-dimension perspective, were also recorded, including presence of vessels, oil rigs, surface trash, visual oil sheens in sediments or water, marine mammals, or noxious/oily sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout the region, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. While sample analysis is still ongoing, some preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed.

Cruise report: regional assessment of ecosystem condition and stressor impacts along the northeastern Gulf of Mexico shelf; NOAA Ship Nancy Foster NF-10-09-RACOW (August 13-21, 2010)

This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted along the continental shelf of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), encompassing 70,062 square kilometers of productive marine habitats located between the Mississippi Delta and Tampa Bay, August 13–21, 2010 on NOAA Ship Nancy Foster Cruise NF-10-09-RACOW. Synoptic sampling of multiple ecological indicators was conducted at each of 50 stations throughout these waters using a random probabilistic sampling design. At each station samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, TPHs, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; sediment toxicity; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, CDOM fluorescence, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. Discrete water samples were collected just below the sea surface, in addition to any deeper subsurface depths where there was an occurrence of suspicious CDOM fluorescence signals, and analyzed for total BTEX/TPH and carcinogenic PAHs using immunoassay test kits. Other indicators of potential value from a human-dimension perspective were also recorded, including presence of any vessels, oil rigs, surface trash, visual oil sheens in sediments or water, marine mammals, or noxious/oily sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout the region, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. In addition to the original project goals, both the scientific scope and general location of this project are relevant to addressing potential ecological impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. While sample analysis is still ongoing, a few preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed.

Movements, behavior, and habitat selection of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, ascertained through archival tags

Ninety-six bigeye tuna (88– 134 cm fork length) were caught and released with implanted archival (electronic data storage) tags near fish-aggregating devices (FADs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) during April 2000. Twenty-nine fish were recaptured, and the data from twenty-seven tags were successfully downloaded and processed. Time at liberty ranged from 8 to 446 days, and data for 23 fish at liberty for 30 days or more are presented. The accuracy in geolocation estimates, derived from the light level data, is about 2 degrees in latitude and 0.5 degrees in longitude in this region. The movement paths derived from the filtered geolocation estimates indicated that none of the fish traveled west of 110°W during the period between release and recapture. The null hypothesis that the movement path is random was rejected in 17 of the 22 statistical tests of the observed movement paths. The estimated mean velocity was 117 km/d. The fish exhibited occasional deep-diving behavior, and some dives exceeded 1000 m where temperatures were less than 3°C. Evaluations of timed depth records, resulted in the discrimination of three distinct behaviors: 54.3% of all days were classified as unassociated (with a floating object) type-1 behavior, 27.7% as unassociated type-2 behavior, and 18.7% as behavior associated with a floating object. The mean residence time at floating objects was 3.1 d. Data sets separated into day and night were used to evaluate diel differences in behavior and habitat selection. When the fish were exhibiting unassociated type-1 behavior (diel vertical migrations), they were mostly at depths of less than 50 m (within the mixed layer) throughout the night, and during the day between 200 and 300 m and 13° and 14°C. They shifted their average depths in conjunction with dawn and dusk events, presumably tracking the deep-scattering layer as a foraging strategy. There were also observed changes in the average nighttime depth distributions of the fish in relation to moon phase.