The growth of demand will limit output growth for food over the next quarter century

The rate of growth of world food demand will be much slower for 1990–2010 than it was for the prior three decades. The major factor determining the increase in food demand is population growth. Income growth has a much smaller effect. From 1960 to 1990, population growth accounted for approximately three fourths of the growth in demand or use of grain. For 1990–2010, it is anticipated that population growth will account for nearly all of the increase in world demand for grain. The rate of population growth from 1990 to 2020 is projected to be at an annual rate of 1.3% compared with 1.9% for 1960 to 1990—a decline of more than 30%. World per capita use of grain will increase very little—perhaps by 4%. The increase in grain use is projected to be 40% less than in 1960–1990. It is anticipated that real grain prices will decline during the period, although not nearly as much as the 40% decline in the previous three decades. Concern has been expressed concerning the deterioration of the quality and productivity of the world’s farmland. A study for China and Indonesia indicates that there has been no significant change in the productive capacity of the land over the past 50 years. Contrary to numerous claims, the depth of the topsoil has not changed, indicating that erosion has had little or no impact.

Temporal variation, dormancy, and coexistence: A field test of the storage effect

Theoretical models suggest that overlapping generations, in combination with a temporally fluctuating environment, may allow the persistence of competitors that otherwise would not coexist. Despite extensive theoretical development, this “storage effect” hypothesis has received little empirical attention. Herein I present the first explicit mathematical analysis of the contribution of the storage effect to the dynamics of competing natural populations. In Oneida Lake, NY, data collected over the past 30 years show a striking negative correlation between the water-column densities of two species of suspension-feeding zooplankton, Daphnia galeata mendotae and Daphnia pulicaria. I have demonstrated competition between these two species and have shown that both possess long-lived eggs that establish overlapping generations. Moreover, recruitment to this long-lived stage varies annually, so that both daphnids have years in which they are favored (for recruitment) relative to their competitor. When the long-term population growth rates are calculated both with and without the effects of a variable environment, I show that D. galeata mendotae clearly cannot persist without the environmental variation and prolonged dormancy (i.e., storage effect) whereas D. pulicaria persists through consistently high per capita recruitment to the long-lived stage.

From patterns to processes: Phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle

Across the boreal forest of North America, lynx populations undergo 10-year cycles. Analysis of 21 time series from 1821 to the present demonstrates that these fluctuations are generated by nonlinear processes with regulatory delays. Trophic interactions between lynx and hares cause delayed density-dependent regulation of lynx population growth. The nonlinearity, in contrast, appears to arise from phase dependencies in hunting success by lynx through the cycle. Using a combined approach of empirical, statistical, and mathematical modeling, we highlight how shifts in trophic interactions between the lynx and the hare generate the nonlinear process primarily by shifting functional response curves during the increase and the decrease phases.

Biogeographic range expansion into South America by Coccidioides immitis mirrors New World patterns of human migration

Long-distance population dispersal leaves its characteristic signature in genomes, namely, reduced diversity and increased linkage between genetic markers. This signature enables historical patterns of range expansion to be traced. Herein, we use microsatellite loci from the human pathogen Coccidioides immitis to show that genetic diversity in this fungus is geographically partitioned throughout North America. In contrast, analyses of South American C. immitis show that this population is genetically depauperate and was founded from a single North American population centered in Texas. Variances of allele distributions show that South American C. immitis have undergone rapid population growth, consistent with an epidemic increase in postcolonization population size. Herein, we estimate the introduction into South America to have occurred within the last 9,000–140,000 years. This range increase parallels that of Homo sapiens. Because of known associations between Amerindians and this fungus, we suggest that the colonization of South America by C. immitis represents a relatively recent and rapid codispersal of a host and its pathogen.

A demographic approach to selection

The concepts of demography provide a means of combining the ecological approach to population growth with the genetical approach to natural selection. We have utilized the demographic theory of natural selection developed by Norton and Charlesworth to analyze life history schedules of births and deaths for populations of genotypes in Drosophila pseudoobscura. Our populations illustrate a stable genetic equilibrium, an unstable genetic equilibrium, and a case of no equilibrium. We have estimated population growth rates and Darwinian fitnesses of the genotypes and have explored the role of population growth in determining natural selection. The age-specific rates of births and deaths provide insights into components of selection. Both viability and fertility are important components in our populations.

Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: Evolutionary predictions and ecological implications

Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation.

Modeling and optimization of populations subject to time-dependent mutation.

It has become clear that many organisms possess the ability to regulate their mutation rate in response to environmental conditions. So the question of finding an optimal mutation rate must be replaced by that of finding an optimal mutation schedule. We show that this task cannot be accomplished with standard population-dynamic models. We then develop a "hybrid" model for populations experiencing time-dependent mutation that treats population growth as deterministic but the time of first appearance of new variants as stochastic. We show that the hybrid model agrees well with a Monte Carlo simulation. From this model, we derive a deterministic approximation, a "threshold" model, that is similar to standard population dynamic models but differs in the initial rate of generation of new mutants. We use these techniques to model antibody affinity maturation by somatic hypermutation. We had previously shown that the optimal mutation schedule for the deterministic threshold model is phasic, with periods of mutation between intervals of mutation-free growth. To establish the validity of this schedule, we now show that the phasic schedule that optimizes the deterministic threshold model significantly improves upon the best constant-rate schedule for the hybrid and Monte Carlo models.

Neoplastic development: paradoxical relation between impaired cell growth at low population density and excessive growth at high density.

The role of heritable, population-wide cell damage in neoplastic development was studied in the 28 L subline of NIH 3T3 cells. These cells differ from the 17(3c) subline used previously for such studies in their lower frequency of "spontaneous" transformation at high population density and their greater capacity to produce large, dense transformed foci. Three cultures of the 28 L subline of NIH 3T3 cells were held under the constraint of confluence for 5 wk (5 wk 1 degree assay) and then assayed twice in succession (2 degrees and 3 degrees assays) for transformed foci and saturation density. After the 2 degrees assay, the cells were also passaged at low density to determine their exponential growth rates and cloned to determine the size and morphological features of the colonies. Concurrent measurements were made in each case with control cells that had been kept only in frequent low-density passages and cells that had been kept at confluence for only 2 wk (2 wk 1 degree). Two of the three cultures transferred from the 2 degrees assay of the 5 wk 1 degree cultures produced light transformed foci, and the third produced dense foci. The light focus-forming cultures grew to twice the control saturation density in their 2 degrees assay and 6-8 times the control density in the 3 degrees assay; saturation densities for the dense focus formers were about 10 times the control values in both assays. All three of the cultures transferred from the 2 degrees assay of the 5 wk 1 degree cultures multiplied at lower rates than controls at low densities, but the dense focus formers multiplied faster than the light focus formers. The reduced rates of multiplication of the light focus formers persisted for > 50 generations of exponential multiplication at low densities. Isolated colonies formed from single cells of the light focus formers were of a lower population density than controls; colonies formed by the dense focus formers were slightly denser than the controls but occupied only half the area. A much higher proportion of the colonies from the 5 wk 1 degree cultures than the controls consisted of giant cells or mixtures of giant and normal-appearing cells. The results reinforce the previous conclusion that the early increases in saturation density and light focus formation are associated with, and perhaps caused by, heritable, population-wide damage to cells that is essentially epigenetic in nature. The more advanced transformation characterized by large increases in saturation density and dense focus formation could have originated from rare genetic changes, such as chromosome rearrangements, known to occur at an elevated frequency in cells destabilized by antecedent cellular damage.