Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

Experimental investigation on box-wing configuration for UAS

The range for airframe configurations available for UAS is as diverse as those used for manned aircraft and more since the commercial risk in trying unorthodox solutions is less for the UAS manufacturer. This is principally because the UAS airframes are usually much smaller than the manned aircraft and operators are less likely to have a bias against unconventional configurations. One of these unconventional configurations is the box-wing, which is an unconventional solution for the design of the new UAS generation. The existence of two wings separated in different planes that are, however, significantly close together, means that the aerodynamic analysis by theoretical or computational methods is a difficult task, due to the considerable interference existing. Considering the fact that the flight of most UAS takes place at low Reynolds numbers, it is necessary to study the aerodynamics of the box wing configuration by testing different models in a wind tunnel to be able to obtain reasonable results. In the present work, the study is enhanced by varying not only the sweepback angles of the two wings, but also their position along the models’ fuselage. Certain models have shown being more efficient than others, pointing out that certain relative positions of wing exists that can improve the aerodynamics efficiency of the box wing configuration.

Efficient sampling from truncated bivariate Gaussians via Box-Muller transformation

Many practical simulation tasks demand procedures to draw samples efficiently from multivariate truncated Gaussian distributions. In this work, we introduce a novel rejection approach, based on the Box-Muller transformation, to generate samples from a truncated bivariate Gaussian density with an arbitrary support. Furthermore, for an important class of support regions the new method allows us to achieve exact sampling, thus becoming the most efficient approach possible. RESUMEN. Método específico para generar muestras de manera eficiente de Gaussianas bidimensionales truncadas con cualquier zona de truncamiento basado en la transformación de Box-Muller.

Virtual-bound, filamentary and layered states in a box-shaped quantum dot of square potential form the exact numerical solution of the effective mass Schrodinger equation

The effective mass Schrodinger equation of a QD of parallelepipedic shape with a square potential well is solved by diagonalizing the exact Hamiltonian matrix developed in a basis of separation-of-variables wavefunctions. The expected below bandgap bound states are found not to differ very much from the former approximate calculations. In addition, the presence of bound states within the conduction band is confirmed. Furthermore, filamentary states bounded in two dimensions and extended in one dimension and layered states with only one dimension bounded, all within the conduction band which are similar to those originated in quantum wires and quantum wells coexist with the ordinary continuum spectrum of plane waves. All these subtleties are absent in spherically shaped quantum dots, often used for modeling.

Modelization of an experimental solar test box equipped with a water-flow based window

A study on a water- ow window installed in a test box is presented. This window is composed of two glass panes separated by a chamber through water ows. The ow of water comes from an isolated tank which contains heat water. In order to fully evaluate the water- ow window performance for different room and window sizes, locations and weather conditions, a mathematical model of the whole box is needed. The proposed model, in which conduction heat transfer mechanism is the only considered, is one dimensional and unsteady based upon test box energy balance. The effect of the heat water tank, which feeds the water- ow window, is included in the model by means of a time delay in the source term. Although some previous work about moving uid chamber has been developed, air was used as heat transfer uid and no uid storage was considered. Finally a comparison between the numerical solution and the obtained experimental data is done.

Dynamic & Cyclic behaviour of ballast in the long term as determined in Cedex's track box

The 6 cylinder servo-hydraulic loading system of CEDEX's track box (250 kN, 50 Hz) has been recently implemented with a new piezoelectric loading system (±20 kN, 300 Hz) allowing the incorporation of low amplitude high frequency dynamic load time histories to the high amplitude low frequency quasi-static load time histories used so far in the CEDEX's track box to assess the inelastic long term behavior of ballast under mixed traffic in conventional and high- speed lines. This presentation will discuss the results obtained in the first long-duration test performed at CEDEX's track box using simultaneously both loading systems, to simulate the pass-by of 6000 freight vehicles (1M of 225 kN axle loads) travelling at a speed of 120 km/h over a line with vertical irregularities corresponding to a medium quality lin3e level. The superstructure of the track tested at full scale consisted of E 60 rails, stiff rail pads (mayor que 450 kN/mm), B90.2 sleepers with USP 0.10 N/mm and a 0.35 m thick ballast layer of ADIF first class. A shear wave velocity of 250 m/s can be assumed for the different layers of the track sub-base. The ballast long-term settlements will be compared with those obtained in a previous long-duration quasi- static test performed in the same track, for the RIVAS [EU co-funded] project, in which no dynamic loads where considered. Also, the results provided by a high diameter cyclic triaxial cell with ballast tested in full size will be commented. Finally, the progress made at CEDEX's Geotechnical Laboratory to reproduce numerically the long term behavior of ballast will be discussed.

The influence of the section shape of box-girder decks on the steady aerodynamic yawing moment of double cantilever bridges under construction

The yawing moment acting on the box-girder deck of reinforced concrete bridges constructed using the balanced cantilever method during the erection stage has been experimentally analyzed by testing different types of bridge cross-sections. Experimental results show that the yawing moment coefficient decreases as the bridge decks become streamlined, and that the yawing moment coefficient reaches a maximum when the bridge deck length is nearly twice the deck width.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models.

In this study we are proposing a Bayesian model selection methodology, where the best model from the list of candidate structural explanatory models is selected. The model structure is based on the Zellner's (1971)explanatory model with autoregressive errors. For the selection technique we are using a parsimonious model, where the model variables are transformed using Box and Cox (1964) class of transformations.

Thinking way out of the box

l objeto de este trabajo es investigar sobre la arquitectura futurista mediante la figura de Jan Kaplický, el cual realizó planteamientos y arquitecturas que todavía hoy son realmente innovadoras e impactantes, centrando el tema en sus propuestas de vanguardia sobre lo doméstico. La obra elegida para este análisis es la House for a Helicopter Pilot (1979), una arquitectura nómada y cinética en que se habitaría una cápsula modular que puede elevar o bajar sus brazos hidráulicos y luego, una vez cansado el usuario del entorno, podría abandonarlo y encontrar otro lugar salvaje en que situarse. Al ser una obra no construida y utópica, sobre la que no hay apenas documentación, se propone como objetivo indagar sobre esta arquitectura alternativa que hoy en día sigue resultando innovadora, y realizar hipótesis explorando los detalles y objetos que aparecen en la escasa documentación existente, profundizando en las ideas utópicas de Jan Kaplicky