Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica


Autoria(s): Torres García, Alejandro
Contribuinte(s)

Jaramillo Mejía, Fernando

Data(s)

20/05/2016

Resumo

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.

Colciencias

The aim of this work is to analyze the relationship between financial and business cycles and the effectiveness of the conventional and unconventional monetary policy, using as reference some stylized facts of the “Great Recession”. To do that, in the first chapter I propose a new framework to understand the interaction between financial and real activity, using a costly state verification model. The next two chapters incorporate this specification in two different DSGE models to evaluate the relationship between the movements of capital banking and output and the effects of banking capital injections induced by the central banks over the economy. The results shows that: (i) the financial and real sector are linked by the banking sector capitalization level and (ii) the nonconventional policies are effective to recover the output, but they are costly in terms of physical resources and inflation rate.

Formato

application/pdf

Identificador

http://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/12135

Idioma(s)

spa

Publicador

Facultad de Economía

Direitos

info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Fonte

instname:Universidad del Rosario

reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR

Adrian, T. y Shin, H.S. (2010). Liquidity and Leverage. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Staff Reports No 328.

Angelioni, I. y Faia, E. (2013). Capital Regulation and Monetary Policy with Fragile Banks. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol 60. No 1.

Badarau, C. y Popescu, A. (2014). Monetary Policy and Credit Cycles: a DSGE Analysis. Economic Modelling. Vol 42, No 1.

Bernanke, B. (1983). Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of Great Depression. The American Economic Review. Vol. 73, No 3.

__________ y Gertler, M. (1989). Agency Costs, Net Worth and Business Fluctuations. The American Economic Review. Vol 79, No 1.

__________, Gertler, M y Gilchrist, S. (1999). The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework. Handbook of Macroeconomics.

Banco de Pagos Internacionales-BIS (2010). Basilea III: Marco regulador global para reforzar los bancos y los sistemas bancarios. Comité de Supervisión Bancaria de Basilea.

Banco de Pagos Internacionales-BIS (2013). Basilea III: Coeficiente de cobertura de liquidez y herramientas de seguimiento de riesgo y liquidez. Comité de Supervisión Bancaria de Basilea.

Banco de Pagos Internacionales-BIS (2014). Basilea III: Coeficiente de financiación estable neta. Comité de Supervisión Bancaria de Basilea.

Bordo, M y Wheelock, D. (1998). Price Stability and Financial Stability: The Historical Record. Review. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Septiembre.

Calvo, G.A. (1983). Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol 12, No 1.

Carlstrom, C.T y Fuerst, T. (1997). Agency Costs, Net Worth and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. The American Economic Review. Vol 87, No 5.

Cespedes, L.F, Chang, R. y Velasco, A. (2004). Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy. The American Economic Review. Vol 94, No 4.

Christiano, L, Motto, R. y Rostagno, M. (2010) Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations. European Central Bank. European Working Papers Series No 1192.

Collard, F, Dellas, H. y Diba, B. (S.F.). A Suite of Models for Dynare. Description of Models. Mimeo.

Dell'Ariccia, G. y Marquez, R. (2013). Interest Rates and the Bank Risk-Taking Channel. Annual Review of Financial Economics. Vol 5, No 1.

Dib, A, (2010). Banks, Credit Market Frictions, and Business Cycles. Bank of Canada. Working Paper Series 2010-24.

Engen, E.M, Laubach, T.T y Reifschneider, D. (2015). The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve´s Unconventional Monetary Policies. Finance and Economic Discussion Series 2015-005. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Fisher, I. (1933). The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions. Econometrica. Vol 1.

Freixas, X. y Rochet, J.C. (2008). Microeconomics of Banking.The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England. 2 Ed.

Gale, D. y Hellwig, M. (1985). Incentive-Compatible Debt Contracts: The One-Period Problem. The Review of Economic Studies, Vol 52, No 4.

Gertler, M. y Karadi, P. (2011). A Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy. Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol 58, No 1.

________, Gilchrist, S. y Nataluci, F.M. (2007). External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Vol 39, No 2.

________ y Kiyotaki, N. (2011). Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle analysis. En: Friedman, B.M y Woodford, M (eds). Handbook of Monetary Economics. Elsevier, Amsterdam.

Güntner, J.H.F. (2015). The Federal Funds Market, Excess Reserves, and Unconventional Monetary Policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control. Vol 53, No 1.

Hirakata, N, Sudo, N. y Ueda, K. (2011). Do Banking Shocks Matter for the U.S. Economy? Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control. Vol 35, No 1.

Iacoviello, M. (2015). Financial Business Cycles. Review of Economic Dynamics. Vol 18. No 1.

International Monetary Fund. Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Inform. Septiembre de 2015.

Jermann, U. y Quadrini, V. (2012). Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks. The American Economic Review. Vol 102, No 1.

Kiyotaki, N. y Moore, J. (1997). Credit Cycles. The Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 105, No 2.

Krishnamurthy, A. y Vissing-Jorgensen, A. (2011). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Fall.

Meinusch, A. y Tillman, P. (2015). The Macroeconomic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks. Journal of Macroeconomics. Article in Press.

Merola, R. (2015). The Role of Financial Frictions During the Crisis: An Estimated DSGE Model. Economic Modelling. Vol 48, No 1.

Mimir, Y, Sunel, E. y Taskin, T. (2012). Required Reserves as a Credit Policy Tool. MPRA paper No 39613.

_______. (2012). Financial Intermediaries, Credit Shocks and Business Cycles. MPRA paper No 39648.

Mohanty, D. (2012). Price Stability and Financial Stability -an Emerging Market Perspective. BIS Central Bankers' Speeches. Bank for International Settlements.

Reinhart, C. y Rogoff, K. (2011). This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press.

Reis, R. (2009). Interpreting the Unconventional U.S. Monetary Policy of 2007-09. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity. Vol 2009.

Smets, F. y Wounters, R. (2007). Shocks and Frictions in U.S. Business Cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach. American Economic Review.

Stock y Watson (1997). Business Cycle Fluctuations in US Macroeconomic Time Series. En: Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1. John Taylor y Michael Woodford Eds. Elsevier. Holanda.

Thornton, D.L. (2015). The Effectiveness of QE: An Assesment of the Event-Study Evidence. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Working Paper.

Townsend, R. M. (1979). Optimal Contracts and Competitive Markets with Costly State Verification. Journal of Economic Theory. Vol 21, No 2.

Palavras-Chave #Economía #Ciclos económicos #Bancos #Bienes de capital #Política monetaria #330 #Business Cycles #Financial system #Monetary policy #DSGE models
Tipo

info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis

info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion